Must-Read: Andrew Jalil and Gisela Rua: Inflation Expectations and Recovery from the Depression in 1933: "By examining the historical news record and the forecasts of contemporary business analysts...

...we show that inflation expectations increased dramatically [in the second quarter of 1933]. Second, using an event - studies approach, we identify the impact on financial markets of the key events that shifted inflation expectations. Third, we gather new evidence — both quantitative and narrative — that indicates that the shift in inflation expectations played a causal role in stimulating the recovery....

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