Must-Read: : Donald Trump Is Not the Frontrunner. Smarter Polls Would Prove It: "Instant-runoff polls would highlight Trump’s very low ceiling of support...
...43 percent of GOP voters view Trump unfavorably... 66 percent of Republicans could not see themselves supporting Trump.... During... 2012... Cain, Gingrich, and Perry... ending up at 30 to 40 percent. Trump has worse unfavorables than any presidential candidate since 1980. With numbers like these, it is basically impossible for Trump to win a majority of Republican votes.
At the other end of the range, Senator Marco Rubio, Governor Scott Walker, and Ben Carson currently have the highest ceilings... viewed unfavorably or as unsupportable by an average of less than 20 percent.... All of these candidates have a more plausible shot at the nomination than Trump. Some pollsters have taken a baby step in the direction of instant-runoff polls by asking voters for their second choice.... I came up with a simple measure... the number of second-preference responses divided by first-preference responses.... Rubio's median second-choice ratio is 1.1, suggesting the most potential for future growth. Behind Rubio are Huckabee, at 0.9; Jeb Bush, Ben Carson, and Rand Paul at 0.8; and Scott Walker at 0.7. Trump brings up the rear at 0.6.... So is Trump doomed? Probably, but one loophole remains. Starting late in the primary season, over a dozen states have winner-take-all primaries...
