Over at WorldPost: China's Market Crash Means Chinese Supergrowth Could Have Only 5 More Years to Run: Ever since I became an adult in 1980, I have been a stopped clock with respect to the Chinese economy. I have said -- always -- that at most, Chinese supergrowth likely has five more years to run.
Then there will come a crash.... After the crash, China will revert to the standard pattern of an emerging market economy without successful institutions that duplicate or somehow mimic those of the North Atlantic... convergence to the North Atlantic growth-path norm will be slow... and political risks... [cause] the most likely surprises. I have been wrong for 25 years straight -- and the jury is still out on the period since 2005. Thus, I'm very hesitant to count out China and its supergrowth miracle. But now 'a' crash -- even if, perhaps, not 'the' crash I was predicting -- is at hand. [READ MOAR]