Must-Read: The remarkable--and puzzling--thing about James Bullard's latest talk is that the phrase "employment-to-population" ratio or any of its possible synonyms simply does not appear anywhere:
A Long, Long Way to Go: "The case for normalization is simple...:
...The Committee’s goals have essentially been met, but the Committee’s policy settings remain stuck in emergency mode. The Committee wants unemployment at its long-run level and inflation of 2 percent. The Committee is about as close to meeting these objectives as it has ever been in the past 50 years...
The problem is that it is not clear to what degree the unemployment rate and to what degree the prime-aged employment rate is the proper measure of labor-market slack, and the prime-aged employment rate is surely not at its long-run level. At least, we all devoutly hope it is not: