Live from Crow's Coffee: Nate Silver's http://fivethirtyeight.com is killing it on the 2016 election story.

A squib from Paul Krugman crosses my desk, praising the highly-estimable Nate Silver, and his http://fivethirtyeight.com. Indeed, let us all praise the the highly-estimable Nate Silver, and his http://fivethirtyeight.com. Most recently:

Plus there is the piece Paul was praising about the media feedback loop and Hillary Clinton.

Moreover, let me double down:

Nate Silver's http://fivethirtyeight.com is killing it on the 2016 election story. If I had simply thrown away and not read anything else on the 2016 election not published by http://fivethirtyeight.com, I would be as well-informed as I in fact am. Everything else has been either bullshit, or the debunking of said bullshit. Perhaps I would know a little more--some of what I have read has been vaccination against future bullshit. Perhaps I would know somewhat less--there is a reasonable chance that some of the bullshit has introduced currently-unfixed bugs into my wetware.

So go read http://fivethirtyeight.com on the election, and stop reading much of the rest of your political media diet. Start with:

  1. How The Media Blew The Biden Story: They let themselves get played. sketchily sourced “inside information” proved no more reliable than other types of gossip...
  2. Hillary Clinton Is Stuck In A Poll-Deflating Feedback Loop: Clinton is toast? Probably not.... She’s still a reasonably heavy favorite for the Democratic nomination...
  3. Keep Calm And Ignore The 2016 ‘Game Changers’
  4. Republicans Are Acting Like Democrats. Democrats Are Acting Like Republicans: These constituencies... have proved to be real fault lines for Republicans...
  5. Pols And Polls Say The Same Thing: Jeb Bush Is A Weak Front-Runner: "The endorsement primary [says] the same thing [as] the polls are telling us: Bush has a better shot... yet the other candidates combined have a better shot than he does...
  6. Stop Comparing Donald Trump And Bernie Sanders: If you’re a Democrat, Sanders is your eccentric uncle: He has his own quirks, but he’s part of the family. If you’re a Republican, Trump is as familial as the vacuum salesman knocking on your door...
  7. Liz Mair Had A Point: The Iowa GOP is more conservative and religious than the national GOP.... Republican candidates are... pulled to the right early.... That hurts them in the general election...
  8. Rand Paul Is Losing His Father’s Base: "Paul’s evolution... has been too successful in separating him from his father... eroded his libertarian credentials.... Yet... Paul hasn’t seen a major payoff with the foreign policy hawks...
  9. Data Availability Determines Whether Campaigns Focus On The Middle Or The Base
  10. For Better Or Worse, Clinton Is Likely Stuck Running For Obama’s Third Term

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