"Black Swans" Is the Wrong Way to Think About It: "Great Birnam Wood to High Dunsinane Hill Come" Weblogging...

Live from the Roasterie: Back in 2011 I was uncertain as to whether Rex Sinquefield was a con artist or a mark, a grifter or a grifter. It seems clear now what he has chosen to be: a con artist and a grifter. I certainly see none of the enthusiastically-promised and much-claimed boost in Kansas employment, either relative to the country as a whole or relative to past trends, since the state became Brownbackistan:

Graph All Employees Total Nonfarm in Kansas FRED St Louis Fed

Yet, rather than admit error and that the world is a more complex place, he goes double-or-nothing--and then does it again, and again, and again. So much so that I gotta start wondering: what advantage does he see in doing this, and from whom? Certainly Sam Brownback is not now flying around Iowa and New Hampshire in pursuit of a position from which he could offer Sinquefield high office...

June 2012: Governor Brownback's Reformed Kansas Could Have Missouri Singing The Blues: "Red Kansas... the leadership of Governor Sam Brownback...

...a Midwestern state that has decided to take Texas’ lead on tax policy, rather than that of California.... Economists, such as Art Laffer, have clearly demonstrated that taxing income harms any state’s ability to contribute to the total U.S. economy.... In my personal experience with Dimensional Fund Advisors, the path to relocation from California and its harmful tax policy was clear. We chose to move our headquarters to Texas, a state with no personal income tax, rather than moving to Missouri, which taxes personal income at six percent.... Business owners are voting with their feet and the penalty is job loss, poor economic performance and diminishing influence in Washington...

October 2013: How Kansas Governor Brownback Schooled Missouri On Tax Cuts, And Showed The Region How To Grow - Forbes: "The only way to get Congress to reform this country’s tax code is to ask for an intervention by the Great and Powerful Oz...

...But, here in the nation’s heartland, results from an experiment in state income tax policy just might provide other states with a roadmap to real growth... the forward thinking Kansas Governor Sam Brownback.... Gov. Brownback’s singular goal was to grow the economy of his state.... A close look at the data backs up the economic projections of Brownback’s visionary leadership.... The Show-Me-State now has real data, made available from our neighbor to the west, which can be used as a reference this coming legislative session. It’s now up to Missourians to create the best tax policy for our own state’s economic growth.

July 2014: Boosted By Tax Cuts, Kansas Routs Missouri: "The reckless claims, proffered by high-tax, big government devotees, that Kansas’ 2012 tax reform measures have already failed...

...are not as thoughtful or well-informed nor are they reliable. To begin, forecasting month-by-month tax receipts is a distraction from the larger picture.... The go-to resource for across the board... [is] An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of States, the recently released book that I co-authored with Stephen Moore, Art Laffer, and Travis H. Brown.... This week’s column in the Kansas City Star, by Stephen Moore (former editorial board member at the Wall Street Journal, chief economist at the Heritage Foundation) competently addresses many of the hasty assertions made by the far-left about Kansas’ near-term, post-income tax cut performance.... Leaders in other states... would be wise to consider the facts and not be influenced by the premature and uninformed claims of their opponents. While it is true that everyone is entitled to their own opinions, they are not entitled to their own set of facts.

December 2014: Governor Brownback's Promises Become Reality For Kansas: "In the two years since Kansas’ tax-reform measures went into effect...

...the promises of Governor Sam Brownback’s administration are becoming a reality. I challenge tax-and-spend naysayers to dispute the following facts: 8,400 seasonally adjusted non-farm jobs have been added since September; Workers saw their earnings grow by 3.3 percent in a year; and The Sunflower State’s unemployment rate is now 4.4 percent, down from 5.2 percent a year ago. And this week, even more good news was released. Nine Kansas counties now have an unemployment rate of less than 2 percent.... Powerful adversaries of Brownback’s pro-growth tax policies painted a dire ‘sky is falling’ picture of the countless misfortunes that were sure to destroy the state’s economic future. While they may want to say and believe as they wish, the proof is in the numbers...

April 2015: Early Results Show Income Tax Cuts Making Kansas A More Prosperous State: "Kansas and Utah are tied for first when it comes to state job growth estimates...

...State Department of Revenue Secretary, Nick Jordan reported this week that while total March tax receipts were $11.2 million below what was expected, individual income tax receipts were $8.7 million higher than expectation. Jordan stated, “While the monthly receipts show a temporary shortfall, sales and use tax receipts for the fiscal year to date are $40 million more than during first nine months of the prior fiscal year. I’m pleased to see individual income tax receipts $8.7million above what we expected, driven in part by strong employment growth.” To be certain, there is still a lot of work to be done by state officials, the legislature, and the governor in order to correct a projected $600 million shortfall.... As state leadership works through these many considerations, they should keep in mind the advances made in Kansas in the last couple of years. Growth through job creation, reducing taxes on income, and fiscal restraint are the critical pieces in this economic brainteaser.

May 2015: Kansas Economic Growth Is On The Rebound--Look At The Real Numbers: "When Kansas Governor Sam Brownback enacted his bold approach to tax reform...

...he gave a much-needed boost to small businesses.... Unfortunately, no good deed goes unpunished.... Since Brownback’s tax reform, private-sector GDP has increased in Kansas. The Tax Foundation shows Kansas outperforming the 50-state average in 2013 (the numbers for 2014 aren’t yet available).... Kansans should be celebrating their state’s strides. The growth of small businesses in Kansas is at an annual rate of 6 percent--higher than the national average and higher than the growth in any neighboring states, including Missouri.... Leaders in other states should be inspired by the small business and employment gains in Kansas...

October 2015: $486 Million In Growth Later, Kansas' Historic Tax Cut Should Set Example For Neighbors: "While naysayers continue to refute the existence of the (very real) good news from Kansas...

...more positive evidence just keeps coming. Recently released figures show that, in 2013 alone, more than ten thousand taxpayers moved from Missouri to Kansas.... 2013 saw an enormous income transfer from Missouri to Kansas.... Not only are more people choosing to ditch the Show-Me State for our western neighbor, but the people who are heading to Kansas have more money to spend, save, and invest there.... Johnson County, KS, takes the lead. This should not be surprising to anyone who understands the porous nature of the Missouri-Kansas border.... Kansas’ unemployment rate is at 4.4 percent unemployment--well below the national average of 5.5 percent. Secretary Jordan pointed out that, in Southwest Kansas, unemployment rates are even lower and some communities are redoubling efforts to attract enough workers for all of the available jobs. None of this, of course, is in keeping with the sky-is-falling rhetoric that tax-cut opponents love to tout. And, to be sure, Kansas will face struggles like the rest of the nation does...

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