Paul Ryan and John Taylor: Refocus The Fed On Price Stability Instead Of Bailing Out Fiscal Policy: Hoisted from Others' Archives from Five Years Ago:

Must-Read: Felix Schönbrodt: The False Discovery Rate (FDR) and the Positive Predictive Value (PPV): "To answer the question 'What’s the probability that a significant p-value indicates a true effect?'...

...we are interested in a conditional probability Prob(effect is real | p-value is significant). Inspired by Colquhoun (2014)... a tree-diagram....

You re probably thinking of p values all wrong p 0 05 The Incidental Economist

[For a population in which 30% of investigated effects are real and statistical power is 35%,] the false discovery rate (FDR): 35 of (35+105) = 140 significant p-values actually come from a null effect... much more than... 5%.... Together with Michael Zehetleitner I developed an interactive app that computes and visualizes these numbers.... Run the App

Well Worth Reading