Things to Read for Your Nighttime Pre-Federal Reserve Liftoff Lollapalooza Procrastination on December 15, 2015


Over at Equitable Growth--The Equitablog:

  • Nick Bunker: The upside of expanding access to the Earned Income Tax Credit* Peter Newcomb (2013): Fed Hawks Worry about Threat of Inflation: "Two top Federal Reserve policymakers expressed discomfort on Thursday with the U.S. central bank's easy monetary policy..."
  • Jeff Spross: Don't do it, Fed! It's a trap!: "The first thing is for voters, activists, and politicians to treat monetary policy with the seriousness it deserves..." :: How much of the current diversion between the views of Yellen and Summers is due to the drip-drip-drip of banking-sector opinions?
  • Matthew Yglesias: This week, the US government will take action to slow the economy and prevent wage growth: "for an African-American population that will enjoy a double-scale version of any drop in the unemployment rate, the stakes remain quite high. The same is true of other kinds of vulnerable populations..."
  • Neil Irwin: Yellen Blinks on Interest Rates: "The cost of waiting... to ensure that the economy continues to perform the way... models predict... [is] low..." As Stanley Fischer did not say, if the Fed raises interest rates when the odds are still only 60-40 that it should, it is not probably but definitely raising them too early
  • Tim Duy: Makes You Wonder What The Fed Is Thinking: "And so into the darkness we go." :: The extremely-thoughtful Tim Duy is... genuinely frightened...
  • Jared Bernstein: Will Inflation Really Snap Back Once “Temporary Factors” Abate?: "I noted the Fed’s theory of the case as to why inflation isn’t accelerating..." :: With model uncertainty, a rational optimizing policymaker would keep interest rates at zero for considerably longer...
  • Jon Faust: Liftoff? And then…: "The Fed’s policy projections going into the December FOMC last year showed a year-end 2015 median federal funds rate of about 1.5%..." :: I find this from Jon Faust inadequate, mostly because if its failure to make even a bow in the direction of asymmetric risks...
  • Harriett Torry and Jon Hilsenrath: Lesson for Fed: Higher Interest Rates Haven’t Been Sticking: "The Bank of Israel, under Stanley Fischer, who is now the Fed’s vice chairman, was among the first to move..." :: Much better to wait until you are sure that you will not have to return to zero in short order...
  • Robin Wigglesworth: How the US Federal Reserve Intends to Raise Rates: "Buckle up. On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates for the first time since 2006..." :: how will it use its tools?... It has taken off the private market will be very interesting to watch.
  • Financial Times: The Federal Reserve May Be Jumping the Gun: "Just because it seems inevitable does not mean it is a good idea..." :: The only wrong thing I see is the statement that "it would probably be more disruptive if the Fed sat on its hands"...

And Over Here:

Might Like to Be Aware of:

Worth Reading