Live from the Gehenna the Republicans have made for themselves: (February 11, 2016): The GOP’s Deadline Problem: "Given the results in Iowa and New Hampshire...
as well as national polls, if the Republican front-runner were a more conventional candidate we would be writing about near-inevitability. Donald Trump is in a very similar position to Mitt Romney’s at this point in 2012--if anything, a somewhat stronger position. In 2012 Romney lagged at various points to other candidates. For Trump, this has not happened since he entered the race.
Nonetheless, what would it take for Trump to fail to get the nomination?....
Many political journalists have a wrong understanding of the early-state delegate process. It is not proportional at all, but what I call pseudo-proportional.... In a field of four candidates, an average-across-states vote share of 30% is enough to get 50% of delegates through Super Tuesday.... The not-Trump scenario occurs if Republicans cull their field, fast. As far as I can tell, if Republicans want a candidate who is acceptable to most of their party to get a majority of convention delegates, their deadlines are:
- Deadline 1 (February 29th): Get down to two alternatives to Donald Trump as a consequence of South Carolina and Nevada – and before voting starts on Super Tuesday, March 1st.
- Deadline 2 (March 14th): Settle on one alternative to Trump as a consequence of Super Tuesday and the March 5th-12th primaries....
If these drop-dead dates aren’t met, Trump could still be stopped, but it would be difficult.... It would require somebody other than Trump to take the popular lead in April.... The basic principles are (a) state GOP rules are seldom truly proportional... and (b) all delegates (including party officials, who used to have more discretion) are required to vote for their assigned candidate on the first ballot.... State parties created loopholes to tilt the balance toward the front-runner, while giving the appearance of proportionality....
In New Hampshire, Donald Trump won 36% of the vote but got 43% of the delegates. In South Carolina, I estimate that a 37% vote share would get him over 90% of the delegates. On Super Tuesday on March 1, 25 percent of all delegates are assigned, mostly pseudo-proportionally. On March 5-12, races are pseudo-proportional for an additional 9 percent of delegates.... On March 15th, three states are either winner-take-all (Florida and Ohio) or winner-take-nearly-all (Missouri) for another 9 percent of delegates. Anti-Trump forces would be well advised to get down to one alternative before then.... If Trump gets over 50% of delegates through Super Tuesday, Republican operatives are likely to fall into line and support him.... I would guess that if Trump has a majority of delegates by March 1st and he still has two opponents afterward, his probability of securing the nomination will be about 80%...
