Live from the Supreme Court: : A Lot Weaker Than They Look: "Let's not forget the massive stakes for Republicans in the next Supreme Court nominee...
...Republican control of the Court, a de facto reality for more than a generation with total control going back a decade, is that big a deal. Yet there's a lot more weakness to Senate Republicans' embrace of the 'three nos' yesterday than I think most observers, certainly most Beltway observers, realize. Not just no confirmation. But no vote, no hearings, not even courtesy meetings. They even took this bizarre step of having all the members of the Senate Judiciary sign a letter pledging absolutely not to hold any hearings of any Obama nominee. The signatures appear to be ink not blood. But who knows?...
The emphaticness of the 'three nos'... is to make the point so ferociously, totally, almost maniacally that they can actually end the debate. But I doubt they actually can. And I think the fall out for Republican senators up for reelection in swing states this year is potentially far greater than people realize.... They need to end the debate now to avoid the political fallout. It is entirely within Mitch McConnell's power to simply never hold a vote, which is all that really matters. But managing the politics is another matter. And that is why it is critical to end the debate now.... This is a far more potent electoral cudgel in Senate elections than most folks realize....
Republican senators won't meet with the nominee.... But I'm pretty sure Democratic senators will meet with him or her and make quite a show of it. I'm also fairly sure the White House will keep trying to set up meetings with Republican Senators and making a show of the on-going refusals.... If you meet with a nominee and then get asked how it went, what do you say? 'It was a good meeting, a very qualified individual. But we definitely won't hold a confirmation hearing?' That doesn't make sense.... As the people managing the opposition on the Republican side have made clear, they need to everything they can to avoid any discussion which focuses on the qualifications of the nominee....
Loosely affiliated or swing voters, by definition, aren't terribly knowledgeable about or concerned about the specifics of or differences about judicial philosophy which undergird this fight. But these voters are extremely focused on gridlock, doing your job or not doing your job, people who refuse to do their job or just do what makes sense for seemingly arbitrary reasons. What is more, there's no ideological commitment required in this case. And the point is readily understandable. This is your job. Do your job. Especially if you're asking to be hired again.... The battle captures an aspect of governmental dysfunction, the arbitrariness of the breakdown of governance that matters a great deal.... I fully expect you'll see Democrats standing up DoYourJob.com type websites across the swath of states from the Atlantic to the Mississippi Valley and various methods to continue pressing those half a dozen senators on whether they'll meet with the nominee, whether they'll vote and why if they will do those things they won't or can't convince their colleagues to do the right thing....
The only real challenge I see here for White House is... the person President Obama likely wants... [is] not... the sort... temperamentally cut out for this kind of political drama.... [But] this is not close to over unless the Democrats agree to make it over. And I doubt they will.
