Live on La Farina: : How To Read Primary Results: "When Nate Silver is good, he’s very good...
...This ‘swingometer’ http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/bernie-sanders-doesnt-need-momentum-he-needs-to-win-these-states/ from FiveThirtyEight is exactly what we all need to make sense of Democratic primary results. Oh, and hold the Hillary-hatred and all that, OK? Whoever you support, this is a great tool for tracking your favorite’s progress or lack thereof. What Silvers et al have done is to quantify something we all know: demography matters a lot.... What they find is that in all three contests so far — yes, including New Hampshire — Clinton has done better, and Sanders worse, than the 50-50 case would predict.... That is, of course, not at all what you’d think from media coverage, which flipped from Clinton doom after NH to Sanders collapse after NV. The prediction markets, on the other hand, have been pretty cool and rational...
