Procrastinating on August 17, 2016

Election Forecasting

Today in Team Bedwetting: Nate Silver and company's has its morning forecasts:

Preview of Election Forecasting

Question: Just what information is there in the "polls-plus" forecast? What does it implicitly assume that Donald Trump will say and do in the next three months to double--double!--his chances relative to what the random drift of the polls under the impact of event and randomness would predict?

And how reasonable is this implicit assumption about what Trump will say and do?