Grasping Reality on TypePad, by Brad DeLong

MOAR Must-Reads:

• Laura Tyson and Anu Madgavkar: The Great Income Stagnation: MGI surveys in France, the United Kingdom, and the US have found...
• Project Syndicate: Untruth and Consequences:
• Simon Wren-Lewis: Economics, DSGE and Reality: Just before 1990... with colleagues I showed that entering the ERM at an overvalued exchange rate would lead to a UK recession...
• Ben Thompson: What the Media Misses About Facebook, Facebook’s Missing Humans, Will the iPhone 7 Be a Hit?: Media executives need to take a very hard look at their businesses and decide where they can survive...
• Harry Brighouse: Why Have Classroom Discussions Anyway?: I didn’t give any reasons why students actually should discuss....
• Narayana Kocherlakota: The Fed Is About to Make a Mistake: More than seven years after the recovery began in mid-2009, inflation remains below the central bank's 2-percent target...
• Bill White: Ultra-Easy Money: Digging the Hole Deeper?: Ultra Easy Monetary Policy: Why it Hasn’t Worked as Intended**
• Marc Dordal i Carreras, Olivier Coibion, Yuriy Gorodnichenko, and Johannes Wieland: Rethinking Inflation Targets for Long ZLB Episodes: The estimated frequencies and durations are quite sensitive to individual country experiences...
• Robert Novy-Marx: Is Momentum Really Momentum?: Momentum is primarily driven by firms’ performance 12 to seven months prior to portfolio formation...
• William Buiter (2009): The Unfortunate Uselessness of Most ‘State of the Art’ Academic Monetary Economics: If one were to hold one’s nose and agree to play with the New Classical or New Keynesian complete markets toolkit, it would soon become clear that any potentially policy-relevant model would be highly non-linear....
• Storify: DSGE as a Degenerating Research Program in Lakatosian Terms: Brad DeLong and Friends...
• Paul De Grauwe and Yuemei Ji: Animal spirits and the optimal level of the inflation target: Low inflation targets can cause economies to hit the zero lower bound during deflationary periods caused by even mild shocks...
• Duncan Black: The Ad Cycle: I thought it would've reset by now, but the internet just keeps getting worse and worse...
• Anna Valero and John van Reenen: The Economic Impact of Universities: Evidence from Across the Globe: 15,000 universities in about 1,500 regions across 78 countries, some dating back to the 11th Century....
• Zach Beauchamp: A Conservative Intellectual Explains: Samuel Goldman is one of America’s most thoughtful conservatives...
• Ernesto Dal Bo, Pablo Hernandez, and Sebastian Mazzuca: The Paradox of Civilization: Pre-Institutional Sources of Security and Prosperity: The rise of civilizations involved the dual emergence of economies that could produce surplus (“prosperity”) and states that could protect surplus (“security”)...
• William Spriggs: Trying to Teach Old Dogs New Tricks: Last December, after a long period of keeping the Fed funds rate near zero, the FOMC voted unanimously to raise the Fed funds rate by one-quarter to one-half points....

• Mark Pesce: Zombie Moore's Law: Hardware Eats Software: Intel announce some next-generation CPUs that aren’t very much faster... delays... some of its 10nm process CPUs; and Apple’s new A10 chip, powering iPhone 7, is as one of the fastest CPUs ever...

• Paul Krugman: What Have We Learned From The Crisis?: We’re talking about an... episode... longer than the famous era of stagflation in the 1970s and early 1980s...

• V.V. Chari, Lawrence Christiano, and Patrick J. Kehoe (2008): _Facts and Myths about the Financial Crisis of 2008

[Facts and ]_: We examine three claims about the... financial crisis... and argue that all three claims are myths...

MOAR Links:

• Ben Thompson: Google, Uber, and the Evolution of Transportation-as-a-Service – Stratechery by Ben Thompson
• Gavyn Davies: Will the Bank of Japan cause a global bond tantrum?
• Barry Ritholtz: Media Template for Responding to Trump's Lies
• BIS Quarterly Review, September 2016
• Grigori Guitchounts: Why Neuroscientists Need to Study the Crow
• Sarah Knapton: Dolphins recorded having a conversation 'just like two people' for first time
• Richard Mayhew: Visible Subsidies and Systems of No
• Jared Bernstein: Take the Last Train to Factville: We need to catch the train... [but I do] not offer... a theory of change that would re-elevate rational discourse.... Sure, it’s important to think about the facts. But it’s probably even more important to think about how to get in play...
• Robert J. Shiller: The Coming Anti-National Revolution
• Karoli Kuns: Bernie Sanders Warns Supporters That 'Now Is Not The Time For A Protest Vote'
• David desJardin
• Kevin Drum: Quadrifecta: Racist Nationalism Is on the Rise All Over the World | America's Newest Heroes: Bag Thieves and Backpack Snatchers | Everyone Agrees: Chris Christie Knew All About Bridgegate | Chart of the Day: Women in Hollywood Disappear at Age 40
• Duncan Black: [Journalists Against Journalism][]: It's quite impressive that the WaPo editorial board has come out with both barrels against their own journalists.... You can argue that whistleblowers perform an important function, but... have to fall on their swords to do so. But it's hilarious to argue that he should be prosecuted because their own colleagues over in the newsroom had news judgment they didn't agree with...
• Marc Andreesen (2007): The Pmarca Guide to Startups, part 4: The only thing that matters
• Ben Thompson (2014): Twitter's Marketing Problem: The initial concept was so good, and so perfectly fit such a large market, that they never needed to go through the process of achieving product market fit...
• Kim Masters: The Netflix Backlash: Why Hollywood Fears a Content Monopoly: Some executives, producers and agents who rely on deals with the streaming giant nonetheless increasingly view Netflix as an existential threat.
• Google: See more, plan less – try Google Trips
• Martin Wolf: No halfway house will do: Theresa May will go for a hard Brexit: Britain will be meaner and poorer but no middle way exists between EU membership and a tough exit
• Jim O'Neill and Eric Goosby: On Antimicrobial Resistance, It’s Now or Never
• Simon Wren-Lewis: Paul Romer on Macroeconomics: "The microfoundations project, which was meant to make macro just another application of microeconomics, has left macroeconomics with very few friends among other economists. The latest broadside comes from Paul Romer.
• John Follain: Austerity Only Benefits Germany and Destroys Europe, Renzi Says
• Ben Bernanke: Should the Fed keep its balance sheet large?
• Kevin Drum: Who Do Republicans Listen To?
• Rob Stavins: A Key Moment for California Climate Policy
• Narayana Kocherlakota (2009): _Modern Macroeconomic Models as Tools for Economic Policy
• Arvind Subramanian: Guarded optimism beats gloom for emerging economies: For the longue durée, promise still beckons for the developing world...
• Paul Krugman: The Curious Confidence of Charlatans and Cranks
• Matthew Yglesias (2008): Beware the CBPP: Robert Samuelson mounts a strong challenge to Charles Krauthammer in the “worst major newspaper columnist” sweepstakes.... People who read the Post’s op-ed pages and take what’s printed their seriously are going to be worse-informed than people who leave the paper alone. It’s a serious problem if you want people to read the paper.
• Cyrus Farivar: As Kuwait imposes world’s first DNA collection law, attorney tries to fight it
• John Timmer: Humanity left Africa in one big surge
• Jonathan Tilove: With soaring oratory, Mayor Adler defends taco trucks on every corner...
• Dan Drezner: Nate Silver says I should be nervous about the election. Here’s why I’m not too nervous: In which a pundit explains his reasons for feeling complacent about a Clinton victory in November...