(1) How well does HRC do her job, really?
- Consensus judgment well-expressed by Donald Trump:
- “she really works hard, and I think she does a good job...”
- “I know Hillary and I think she’d make a great president...”
- “smart, tough and a very nice person...”
- "I like her… just really terrific people...”
- "a terrific woman..."
- Last big mistake in 1993-1994: The HillaryCare campaign:
- What was that big mistake?
- Fresh from Arkansas, she was snowed by Acela Corridor consultants...
- Who had no plan for how to actually pass the health care bill...
- She learned...
(2) How should we evaluate candidates economic plans and promises?
- Two questions seem most important:
- Do they tend to overpromise or underpromise?
- Do they have the organization you need to plan to actually make calculations and plans?
- Trump overpromises, and doesn't have the organization...
(3) Trump overpromises:
- Look at his Atlantic City prestige properties...
- The Trump Taj Mahal is closing October 10...
- The Trump Plaza closed two years ago...
- Overpromises, collects his money up front, disappoints, and moves on...
(4) Trump doesn't have a policy-planning organization any more:
- What is the state Trump's policy planning and analysis staff in Alexandria?
- There isn't one.
- Trump policy grunt staff in Alexandria is no more (Erick Ericsson: http://theresurgent.com/one-of-trumps-major-initiatives-to-appeal-to-conservatives-just-collapsed/).
- Trump and Lewandowski promised Rick Dearborn (Jeff Sessions former chief-of-staff) and John Mashburn (Thom Tillis's former chief-of-staff). They hired people
- Manafort came in, and Trump and Manafort then told them--after three months of "the checks are on the way"--that they were volunteers.
- They quit.
- Stephen Miller, Dan Kowalski. Walid Phares--all that are left doing any grunt-work, as opposed to phrase-spinning...
(5) Is Hillary overpromising?
- Since the mid-1980s when Charlie Schultze read people the riot act, Democratic candidates have underpromised...
- Look at all the forecasts Obama's people have made since he took office
- Never predicted unemployment would get this low: 4.9%
- Never predicted job growth would be this high: payroll jobs +14.9M in this recovery, +11.3M since start of term
- Obama ranks 4 out of 12 post-WWII presidents in job creation during his term:
- Bush I
- Bush II
(6) Three different views of Donald Trump:
- People who have let Trump manage think he's a lousy manager
- People who have let Trump control think he takes everything that isn't nailed down--on the "you messed up: you trusted me!" theory...
- People who have used Trump as a pitchman--they are happy:
- Not despite, but because he overpromises
- And overpromises in a way that convinces enough people...
(7) How well does Trump do his job, really?
- Suppose he had just taken his inheritance and put it in the markets as a passive investor
- He would be three times as rich as he claims he is...
- And I haven't found anybody in New York real estate who thinks Trump is as rich as he claims he is:
- In one respect it looks a little like Bernie Madoff
- If he were making the results he was claiming...
- A lot of people should have run into his operations
- They haven't...
(8) Trump's big Idea: tax cuts for the rich:
- For 35 years the claim has been that our rich are overtaxed
- And if only taxes on the rich would go down
- We would boost entrepreneurship and enterprise
- We would unleash massive extra economic growth
- No sign of it so far:
- Tax cuts for the rich make for a richer rich
- No sign of them boosting anybody else
(9) One thing in government policy looks like it is boosting entrepreneurship:
- Set up by Romney in Massachusetts in mid-2000s
- Afterwards people could start a small business and still buy not-incredibly-unaffordable health insurance
- It is working as hoped...
- ObamaCare does the same thing nationwide…
- Preliminary signs that it is working in the rest of the country as well...
(10) Could we get 4%/Year Growth?
- Yes, but only with greatly increased immigration.
- We need 2%/year growth in workers to get 4% growth over the next five years--and people growing up only gets us 1%/year these days.
- Beyond 5 years we can boost growth by starting massive investment now...
- Throwing 11 million people out of the country would push growth over the next four years down from the 2.5%/year we are currently expecting to 1%/year...
(11) Should we scare people by threatening to default on our debt?
- Donald Trump says we should
- Then we could buy our debt back cheaply.
- The problem is that our national debt is not a cost but a profit center.
- The rich of the world buy our bonds because they trust the U.S. Treasury to keep their money safe.
- Do the accounting properly and that is worth $600 billion/year to us.
- The profits from being in the safe assets business over the next generation vastly exceed what we could get by scaring people.
- Worries about the debt are not worries about what the debt is now, but about what the debt will be in 40 years.
- Over the next generation Trump's debt plan would be a huge mistake
- But he doesn't have the policy planning staff in Alexandria any more to tell him so
- And even if they did, would they?
- Surrounded by yes-men.