Grasping Reality on TypePad, by Brad DeLong

MOAR Must-Reads:

• Two significant election-analysis analytical victories: The Upshot Live Presidential Forecast and Nate Silver: 2016 Election Night
• Nancy Cartwright and Angus Deaton: The Limitations of Randomised Controlled Trials: "A well-conducted RCT can yield a credible estimate of an ATE in one specific population, namely the ‘study population’...
• Emmanuel Saez: Taxing the Rich More: "Donald Trump proposes to cut taxes on the rich...
• Cosma Shalizi: Advanced Data Analysis from an Elementary Point of View: "It Is also important to be clear that when we find the regression function is a constant...
• Matthew Yglesias: Nate Silver’s model underrates Clinton’s odds: "Even if you buy Silver’s main modeling assumptions (and I largely do)...
• Branko Milanovic: The Long Shadow of 1989: "The [Eastern European] generation born around the early 1990s, which has now reached its maturity...
• Dylan Matthews: Hillary Clinton’s Quiet Revolution: "The scope and ambition of Clinton’s program often gets missed...
• Mark Thoma: My Voter’s Guide to Economic Policy: "Now we can finally come together as a nation and begin to make progress on important economic, social, and political issues (I can dream, can’t I?)...
• John Perr: Inflation-Adjusted Federal Spending Has Fallen Under President Obama: "It is an article of conservative faith that federal spending under President Obama is 'out of control'...
• Nathanael Johnson: What the New York Times missed with its big GMO story: "A big piece [by Danny Hakim] that made the front page of the New York Times... takes aim at...
• James Kwak: The Last Chapter Problem: "Bernstein, to his credit, gets the description of the problem out of the way in the first two chapters...
• Matthew Kahn: Did California Zoning Cause the Trump Win? A Counter-Factual of My State's Electoral Count if Housing Supply is Elastic: "If California had Texas style housing regulations, then 80 million people would live in California and the state would have 100 electoral votes...
• Jie Sun et al. (2011): A Mathematical Model for the Dynamics and Synchronization of Cows: "We formulate a mathematical model for daily activities of a cow (eating, lying down, and standing) in terms of a piecewise affine dynamical system...
• Ezra Klein: Donald Trump’s Success Reveals a Frightening Weakness in American Democracy: "The belief that Trump is a predictable reaction to acute economic duress crumbled before the finding that his primary voters had a median household income of $72,000 — well above both the national average and that of Clinton supporters...
• Philip Stephens: America Can Survive Trump. Not so the West: "History can veer off course... in 1914... the first age of globalisation was consumed in the flames of the Great War... [in] the 1930s when economic hardship, protectionism and nationalism nurtured the rise of fascism...
• Ben Steverman: Advice for the Next President: Expand Social Security: "Is expanding Social Security the right thing to do? Is it even possible? Yes and yes, Jesse Rothstein argues...
• Fritz Minsky: @FritzMinsky: "Prescient analysis by @AdamPosen - 'A Better Global Policy Mix by Accident?'" https://t.co/nKCxEp9iIK
• Noah Smith: Japan Shuts Down Its Monetary Lab: "People know that the central bank can break its promises at any time...
• Robin Wigglesworth: Buy The Dip: The Death of Active Asset Management?: "The WSJ has run an annoyingly good series on the whole active versus passive asset management theme...
• Kevin Drum: We Are All Keynesians Now: "Investors are giddy at the possibility of Republicans finally embracing crude Keynesian stimulus...
• Frederic Bastiat: As a Modern Liberal: "[O]ften, nearly always if you will, the government official [receives his salary and] renders an equivalent service to Jacques Bonhomme...
• Jason Kuznicki: Becoming a Democrat: "I am registering as a Democrat. Mom, dad, I’m sorry...
• Four from the Fiscal Expansion File: Summers, Krugman, Yellen, and Romer and Romer
• Douglas Elmendorf and Louise Sheiner: Federal Budget Policy with an Aging Population and Persistently Low Interest Rates: "Debt is rising in part because of a major demographic shift as the baby boom generation retires...
• David Cashin, Jamie Lenney, Byron Lutz and William Peterman: Fiscal Policy Changes and Aggregate Demand in the U.S. Before, During and Following the Great Recession: "We examine the effect of federal and subnational fiscal policy changes on aggregate demand in the U.S...

MOAR Links:

• James Pethokoukis: The 'Party of Ideas' in the Age of Trump: "In the run-up to the U.K. vote to leave the European Union, pro-Brexit politician Michael Gove said "people in this country have had enough of experts"...
• Michael Pettis: The re-emergence of the Jacksonians: "Donald Trump... is dishonest, unfit for the presidency, and incapable of office.... But he actually seems to thrive on the relentless series of what for any other candidate would have been knockout blows...
• Adam Samson: US economy adds 161k jobs in Oct, wage growth picks up
• Yochi Dreazen: The anti-Clinton insurgency at the FBI, explained
• Frederick Douglass (1867): An Appeal to Congress for Impartial Suffrage
• Topher Spiro: The ACA isn’t in a ‘death spiral’ — it’s undergoing a correction: Repealing the law would leave 20 million Americans in a lurch...
• Farai Chideya: Mexican-Americans Are Reshaping the Electoral Map In Arizona — And The U.S.
• Claire Malone (July): The End Of A Republican Party
• Craig Fehrman: All Politics Is National: How state politicians went from solving the problems in their own backyards to mimicking the gridlock in Washington...
• David Wasserman: House Democrats Are Getting More Diverse. Republicans Aren’t
• Sara Benincasa: I’m Voting For The Democrat In November Because I’m Not A Human Tire Fire (October 2016 Edition)
• Chuck Wendig: I’m Voting For Hillary, Because I Am Not A Cannibalistic Humanoid Underground Dweller (Nor Do I Want To Become One)
• Stuart Stevens: The Flat-Earth Set Helped Donald Trump Hijack the GOP, and Crash It into the Ground
• Barry Lynn: Estates of Mind: The answer to America’s techno-malaise is to force big corporations to compete more. And to open their patent vaults.
• Bernard Marr: 3 Industries That Will Be Transformed by AI, Machine Learning and Big Data: Healthcare, finance, and insurance...
• Economist: Take care of Russia
• Economist: Milk without the cow
• Michele Piccione and Ariel Rubinstein: [Equilibrium in the Jungle ][]
• Julie Lythcott-Haims: My Conversation with Peter Thiel about Apartheid… And Its Unfolding Aftermath
• Adele Stan (May): Yes, Donald Trump Could Win the Presidency
• Ron Dicker: Scottie Nell Hughes Called Molotov Cocktail a 'Mazel Tov Cocktail' on CNN: "Oy vey..."
• Claire Malone: The End Of A Republican Party: Racial and cultural resentment have replaced the party’s small government ethos...
• Edward Luttwak (1994): Fascism Is the Wave of the Future
• Daniel Dale: America on the Edge
• Chris Blattman: Academic job market advice for economics, political science, public policy, and other professional schools
• Thomas J. Leeper: It's Different Over Here, and Here, and Here...
• Gavyn Davies: New Fiscal Theory
• Jeffrey Butler, Paola Giuliano, Luigi Guiso: Why We Get Whom to Trust Wrong
• Matthew Yglesias: The real Clinton email scandal is that a bullshit story has dominated the campaign
• Fernanda Nechio and Glenn D. Rudebusch: Has the Fed Fallen behind the Curve This Year?
• Matthew Yglesias: Donald Trump’s administration is going to be a bonanza for bankers: Populist rhetoric masks a bonanza of deregulation and tax cuts
• David Cay Johnston: Why Voters Elected President Donald J. Trump—and Why They’ll Regret It: Nearly 50 years of income stagnation explain why Americans went with a commander in chief obsessed with revenge.
• Duncan Weldom: Political Economy and Trump’s Trilemmas
• Nick Bunker: New research on market power and productivity
• Carola Binder: Political Pressures on the Fed and the Trump Presidency
• Andy Haldane: The Dappled World
• Martin Wolf: The Economic Consequences of Mr Trump
• Mary E. Burfisher, Sherman Robinson and Karen Thierfelder (2001): The Impact of NAFTA on the United States
• Helen A. Halpin and Peter Harbage (2010): The Origins And DemiseOf The Public Option
• Manu Saadia: Why this Frenchman plans to resist President Trump--by becoming a U.S. citizen
• Socialist Workers Party (1974): Organizational Discussion Bulletin
• Debin Ma (2011): Rock, scissors, paper: the problem of incentives and information in traditional Chinese state and the origin of Great Divergence
• Patrick K. O'Brien and Francisco Comín, eds.2015): The Rise of Fiscal States: A Global History, 1500-1914 http://amzn.to/2eSxeA6
• (2011): Deficit Denialism: Frederic Bastiat Actually Favored Expansionary Fiscal Policy in Recessions Edition: As a general rule, when you actually read the classical economists in depth you find that their modern epigones are considerably crazier than they were...