Must Read: Two significant election-analysis analytical victories in a remarkable election night. The first goes to Nate Silver and his 538, for correctly aggregating and correctly reading that the "polling--to a greater extent than the conventional wisdom acknowledged--had shown a fairly competitive race with critical weaknesses for Clinton in the Electoral College..." The second goes to The Upshot, which saw what was happening a good hour before other election analysts:
The Upshot: Live Presidential Forecast
Nate Silver: 2016 Election Night: "That’s A Wrap. Donald Trump has been elected president of the United States...
...In an extremely narrow sense, I’m not that surprised by the outcome, since polling--to a greater extent than the conventional wisdom acknowledged--had shown a fairly competitive race with critical weaknesses for Clinton in the Electoral College. It’s possible, perhaps even likely, that Clinton will eventually win the popular vote as more votes come in from California. But in a broader sense? It’s the most shocking political development of my lifetime. We’re going to get some sleep, and then we’ll have much more to say over the next days and weeks about how Trump won and what it means for the country. We hope you’ll continue to join us on a regular basis....
Something to remember: Whatever your feelings about the state of the country right now, it’s fundamentally not that different a place whether the final call is that Clinton has narrowly won or narrowly lost. Add just 1 percent to Clinton’s vote share and take 1 percent away from Trump’s, and she would have won Florida and Pennsylvania, therefore would probably have been on her way to a narrow Electoral College victory....
One thing I’ve been thinking about here is where the Democratic Party goes next. Three of the last four Congressional elections (2010, 2014 and 2016) were bad for the Democrats, leading to a thin bench. President Obama served out his two terms. The Clinton dynasty is over. But the most obvious alternatives to Clinton — Bernie Sanders, Joe Biden — are also pretty old. It seems that all of the energy in the party is on the left, and it wouldn’t be surprising if the 2020 nominee were someone from the Sanders wing of the party. But who is that candidate? I don’t know. There are a lot of opportunities for talented, up-and-coming, left-wing politicians, beginning with the 2018 midterms.
Carl Bialik: "I wrote this morning about this election’s status as the first since a Supreme Court decision...
...struck down portions of the Voting Rights Act of 1965, prompting states to close hundreds of polling places. Among the states affected were three crucial states won by Trump: Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina.
