Grasping Reality on TypePad, by Brad DeLong

Must-Read: Nathanael Johnson: What the New York Times missed with its big GMO story: "A big piece [by Danny Hakim] that made the front page of the New York Times... takes aim at...

Must-Read: Federal spending needs to rise significantly if the government is to accomplish its missions:

John Perr: Inflation-Adjusted Federal Spending Has Fallen Under President Obama: "It is an article of conservative faith that federal spending under President Obama is 'out of control'...

Must-Read: This by Josh Barro was, I think, the best take on what the 2016 presidential election was really about: telling it like it is. I do, however, have several caveats:

• Josh Barro's analysis is correct only for high-information Trump voters. For low-information Trump voters, the calculus is: "Gee, there's more of an uproar in the media about this election! Maybe it's because of social changes produced by the internet? Whatever, I'm a Republican, and the Republican convention nominated Trump, and the Republican establishment says to vote for Trump. So I will vote for Trump." Things aren't as dire about all--or most--of those of our fellow citizens who pull the lever for Trump as Barro believes. There is a weak duty not to be a low-information voter, but not a strong duty not to be one.

• A great many high-information voters who usually vote Republican are not voting for Trump. That is, I think, a good sign.

• Where the news is much worse than Barro says is with respect to the Republican establishment that has fallen in line behind Trump. That is a very worrisome problem for the future, whatever the next four years bring us.

Josh Barro: Final Thoughts on 2016: "The core question of the 2016 election is stupidly simple...

Must-Read: If "fascist" means anything, it means somebody who claims to be a strong leader who will (a) solve problems, (b) eliminate the cretinism of parliaments, and (c) identify the enemies of the people--internal and external--and deal with them harshly. If you want to say that "fascism" proper is a disease of the twentieth century, and that the twenty-first century has "neo-fascism", I will not complain:

Gideon Rachman: Is Donald Trump a Fascist?: "Labeling a politician a fascist is not usually helpful...

Must-Read: The problem is not so much that trolls are crippling Twitter--that is true--but that Twitter turns people who could be normal into trolls:

Noah Smith: Trolls Are Crippling Twitter: "he biggest problem is inherent to the technology itself...

Over at Equitable Growth: Must-Reads:

• John Perr: Inflation-Adjusted Federal Spending Has Fallen Under President Obama: "It is an article of conservative faith that federal spending under President Obama is 'out of control'...
• Nathanael Johnson: What the New York Times missed with its big GMO story: "A big piece [by Danny Hakim] that made the front page of the New York Times... takes aim at...
• James Kwak: The Last Chapter Problem: "Bernstein, to his credit, gets the description of the problem out of the way in the first two chapters...
• Matthew Kahn: Did California Zoning Cause the Trump Win? A Counter-Factual of My State's Electoral Count if Housing Supply is Elastic: "If California had Texas style housing regulations, then 80 million people would live in California and the state would have 100 electoral votes...
• Jie Sun et al. (2011): A Mathematical Model for the Dynamics and Synchronization of Cows: "We formulate a mathematical model for daily activities of a cow (eating, lying down, and standing) in terms of a piecewise affine dynamical system...
• Ezra Klein: Donald Trump’s Success Reveals a Frightening Weakness in American Democracy: "The belief that Trump is a predictable reaction to acute economic duress crumbled before the finding that his primary voters had a median household income of $72,000 — well above both the national average and that of Clinton supporters...
• Philip Stephens: America Can Survive Trump. Not so the West: "History can veer off course... in 1914... the first age of globalisation was consumed in the flames of the Great War... [in] the 1930s when economic hardship, protectionism and nationalism nurtured the rise of fascism...
• Ben Steverman: Advice for the Next President: Expand Social Security: "Is expanding Social Security the right thing to do? Is it even possible? Yes and yes, Jesse Rothstein argues...
• Fritz Minsky: @FritzMinsky: "Prescient analysis by @AdamPosen - 'A Better Global Policy Mix by Accident?'" https://t.co/nKCxEp9iIK
• Noah Smith: Japan Shuts Down Its Monetary Lab: "People know that the central bank can break its promises at any time...

Over at Equitable Growth: Must-Reads:

• Principles that Should Govern American Fiscal Policy - Equitable Growth
• Trump's Tax Noplan - Equitable Growth
• Nick Bunker: An update on the U.S. labor market from the September JOLTS report - Equitable Growth
• Two significant election-analysis analytical victories: The Upshot Live Presidential Forecast and Nate Silver: 2016 Election Night
• Nancy Cartwright and Angus Deaton: The Limitations of Randomised Controlled Trials: "A well-conducted RCT can yield a credible estimate of an ATE in one specific population, namely the ‘study population’...
• Emmanuel Saez: Taxing the Rich More: "Donald Trump proposes to cut taxes on the rich...
• Mark Thoma: My Voter’s Guide to Economic Policy: "Now we can finally come together as a nation and begin to make progress on important economic, social, and political issues (I can dream, can’t I?)...

Well, that was a very interesting election night...

Our failure in 2000 to introduce into the running code (as opposed to the specification document) of our constitution that electors switch votes so that the national popular vote winner wins the electoral college cost us dear in 2000, and may cost us even more today...

You may ask: How is one to judge what to do in such times? The answer is clear: As one has ever judged. Good and evil have not changed since yesteryear, nor are they one thing among Elves and another among Men. It is a human's part to discern them, as much in the Golden Wood as in his own house. What would have been good policy yesterday would still be good policy today. What would have been bad policy yesterday would still be bad policy today. So we play our position.

I therefore set forth seven principles that should govern good technocratic fiscal policies that promise to enhance America's societal well-being :

• Preserve Our Credit
• Our National Debt a National Blessing
• Right Now Our National Debt Is too Low
• International Agencies Agree
• Benefits from a Higher Deficit If We Are at Full Employment
• Benefits from a Higher Deficit If We Are Not at Full Employment
• A Strong Argument for More Government Purchases Rather than Tax Cuts for the Rich

Must-Read: A very nice framework document for the economic policy dialogue:

Mark Thoma: My Voter’s Guide to Economic Policy: "Now we can finally come together as a nation and begin to make progress on important economic, social, and political issues (I can dream, can’t I?)...

Duncan Black: The Worst Election Coverage Ever: "I'd mellowed a bit on my media criticism in recent years... (Live from Donald Trump's America)

Must-Read: Well, that was a very interesting election night. Our failure in 2000 to introduce into the running code (as opposed to the specification document) of our constitution that electors switch votes so that the national popular vote winner wins the electoral college cost us dear in 2000, and may cost us even more today...

You may ask: How is one to judge what to do in such times? The answer is clear: As one has ever judged. Good and evil have not changed since yesteryear, nor are they one thing among Elves and another among Men. It is a human's part to discern them, as much in the Golden Wood as in his own house. What would have been good policy yesterday would still be good policy today. What would have been bad policy yesterday would still be bad policy today. So we play our position.

Donald Trump has said that he plans to change the tax code so that people like him would pay much higher taxes. Donald Trump's tax plan sets forth tax law changes that would lead to rich people paying much lower taxes. This presents us with a problem: Is Donald Trump's tax plan the document that says it is Donald Trump's tax plan or is it what Donald Trump has said he plans to do about taxes? Your guess is as good as mine.

In thinking about tax policy, however, it is important to stress what the historical experience of the past four decades tells us about taxing the rich in the United States. Raising taxes on the rich:

• Raises about 80% of the revenue that a "static" calculation suggests.
• Generates resources that can be used to pay for government programs or to finance tax cuts elsewhere and so make the tax system more progressive.
• because of the small revenue loss, has benefits in that making the tax code more progressive raises societal well-being, unless you have a strong belief that the current distribution of income is the equitable one.
• has no noticeable negative and might have a small positive effect on economic growth.

Emmanuel Saez:

Emmanuel Saez: Taxing the Rich More: "Donald Trump proposes to cut taxes on the rich...

Well, that was an interesting election night...

Back in 2000 we had a chance to establish the principle in the running code of our constitution (as opposed to the specifications document) that electors switch so that the winner of the national popular vote becomes president. In fact, back in late October 2000 I was pushing that: I argued that if Al Gore won the electoral college but not the popular vote, he should direct his electors to vote for George W. Bush because the long run stakes at risk were too high for it to be wise to do otherwise.

We did not do that in 2000--to our great cost then, and perhaps to our greater cost now.

.@EdwardGLuce F---! F---! F---ity f---! It's Trump's neofascist Republican Party now, no matter how the EV squeaker tonight ends...

— J. Bradford DeLong (@delong) November 9, 2016

Must-Read: Smart thoughts from Nancy Cartwright and Angus Deaton:

Nancy Cartwright and Angus Deaton: The Limitations of Randomised Controlled Trials: "A well-conducted RCT can yield a credible estimate of an ATE in one specific population, namely the ‘study population’...

Must-Read: Ian Millhiser: Why America Failed: "America failed because of the Electoral College...

Claire Malone (July): There Is No Happy Ending to This Story: The End Of A Republican Party: "Many Republicans think Donald Trump’s nomination is... destroying any chance for growth... leaving the GOP to wither and die on Trump vineyard vines... (Live from Trumpland)

Must Read: Two significant election-analysis analytical victories in a remarkable election night. The first goes to Nate Silver and his 538, for correctly aggregating and correctly reading that the "polling--to a greater extent than the conventional wisdom acknowledged--had shown a fairly competitive race with critical weaknesses for Clinton in the Electoral College..." The second goes to The Upshot, which saw what was happening a good hour before other election analysts:

The Upshot: Live Presidential Forecast

Nate Silver: 2016 Election Night: "That’s A Wrap. Donald Trump has been elected president of the United States...

Must-Read: Why I reacted badly to journalists who asked me to analyze Trump's economic plans. The first, last, and only correct thing to say was that there never was any coherent plan. To say anything else was to try to normalize the unnormalizable. Everyone who wrote as if there was a plan should be deeply ashamed of themselves.

Here Alan Cole gets it... less wrong than most. He is still trying to normalize the unnormalizable. But he is honest about how difficult it was for him to attempt the task:

Alan Cole: _On Twitter: "This is my 407th (and, I expect, final) day covering Donald Trump's tax proposals for @taxfoundation...

...Here's what we've learned:

I endorse this:

[Scholars' letter of support for Ricardo Hausmann][]:

We the undersigned write to express our dismay at Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro’s repeated targeting of our colleague Ricardo Hausmann and to express our support for Professor Hausmann.

Three excellent pieces on how the media has failed us--and failed us worse this election cycle than ever before: Brian Buetler, Todd Gitlin, Jurek Martin.

By the way, I disagree with Buetler in one important dimension. When Brian says "there is no shortage of journalists and outlets in this industry with a lot to be proud of...", he is lying. There is a great shortage. That is why Brian needs to come up with a list--a shortlist--of journalists and outlets to whitelist:

Brian Buetler: [Shame on Us, the American Media][]: "There is no shortage of journalists and outlets in this industry with a lot to be proud of...

In 2000 Supreme Court Justices William Rehnquist, Anthony Kennedy, Sandra Day O'Connor, Antonin Scalia, and Clarence Thomas decided the presidential election by casting their five votes in a lawless exercise that they then forbade ever being used as a precedent. In this election Supreme Court Justices John Roberts, Anthony Kennedy, Joseph Alito, Antonin Scalia, and Clarence Thomas are once again casting votes--enough, it looks like right now, to give North Carolina to Donald Trump:

Michael DeLong: The Attack on Voting Rights:

In 2013, by a 5–4 vote, the Supreme Court struck down a couple of key provisions of the 1965 Voting Rights Act. Section 5 of the Act required certain state and local governments to get federal approval before they could implement any changes to their voting laws, and Section 4(b) contained the formula that determined which areas had to get approval. The formula was based on the areas’ past records of discrimination in voting.

Matt Drudge Rules Their World: What Arch-Journamalists Mark Halperin and John Harris are reading this morning:

Over at Equitable Growth: Must-Reads:

• Matthew Yglesias: Nate Silver’s model underrates Clinton’s odds: "Even if you buy Silver’s main modeling assumptions (and I largely do)...
• Branko Milanovic: The Long Shadow of 1989: "The [Eastern European] generation born around the early 1990s, which has now reached its maturity...
• Dylan Matthews: Hillary Clinton’s Quiet Revolution: "The scope and ambition of Clinton’s program often gets missed...

Why does this come as a surprise to Bret Stephens? The distance between Sarah Palin and Rick Perry on the one hand and Donald Trump on the other is not that large: (Live from the Republicans' Self-Made Trump Hell)

Bret Stephens: 2016’s Big Reveal: "The awful election of 2016... was the Big Reveal... the guiding spirit of the modern conservative movement is neither Burke nor Lincoln...

Must-Read: Dylan Matthews: Hillary Clinton’s Quiet Revolution: "The scope and ambition of Clinton’s program often gets missed...

False equivalence! Unbelievable! (Live from the Journamalists' Self-Made Gehenna)

Albert Hunt: Dismal Campaign Presages a Crisis of Government: "Both sides bear responsibility for the sorry state of politics this year...

...The overwhelming blame belongs to Donald Trump. He has largely waged a campaign of venom and cruel insults that was substantively shallow. If you waded through his deepest policy thoughts your ankles wouldn't get wet....

Hillary Clinton, on the other hand, has laid out a comprehensive agenda on many issues. But in a political variation of Gresham's Law, her message often seems to have sunk to Trump's level. Can you imagine Republicans even grudgingly admitting she has a mandate to do anything?...

Any examples of how HRC's "message... sunk to Trump's level"? Of course not! There are no such examples. Which doesn't keep Al Hunt from saying that there are...

I cannot figure out whether they belong in the Bolgia of the Evil Counselors:

Or among those banner-chasers denied entrance to either heaven or hell for their refusal to take a stand:

There is a really great paper to be written going back and reinterviewing these 3000 people with an eye toward figuring out just why this happened. Just saying:

USC Dornsife/LA Times: The Presidential Election "Daybreak" Poll: "The 2016 USC Dornsife / LA Times Presidential Election Poll represents a pioneering approach to tracking changes in Americans' opinions throughout a campaign for the White House...

...Around 3000 respondents in our representative panel are asked questions on a regular basis on what they care about most in the election, and on their attitudes toward their preferred candidates. The "Daybreak poll" is updated just after midnight every day of the week.

This chart tracks our best estimate, over time, of how America plans to vote in November. The final blue and red figures on the right side of the chart represent our most recent estimates of Hillary Clinton's vote (blue squares) and Donald Trump's (red diamonds). These estimates represent weighted averages of all responses in the prior week. The gray band is a "95-percent confidence interval". Figures lying outside the gray band mean that we are at least 95% confident that the candidate with the highest percentage will win the popular vote.

Time for a personal plea to Jeff Bezos: shut the Washington Post down. (Live from the Journamalists Self-Made Hell)

An organization profoundly uninterested in being a trustworthy information intermediary has no reason to exist in the post-classified ads world:

Philip Bump: Donald Trump’s ground game may be more robust than you think:

Paul Ryan von Papen: GOP Not Donald Trump's Party: "It is no one person’s party... (Live from the Republicans' Self-Made Trump Hell)

...Donald Trump won the primary fair and square. As a party leader, as the highest elected official in the party, I have always felt a duty to the process, to democracy, to the primary voter who must be respected. And he won this fair and square. But no one person controls this party. This is a bottom-up, organic grassroots party based on conservative principles...

Presidential nominee Donald Trump, Vice Presidential nominee Mike Pence, and...

...seven politicians, four family members, and four on the "women's tour":

There are a huge number of Republicans who have endorsed Trump, are voting for Trump, have no elections of their own tomorrow, and yet are sitting on their hands. Why? Why not either go into opposition so you have post-catastrophe credibility, or get on the stump to help him so he won't be made at you when he pulls his eyeless-in-Gaza act starting Wednesday?

The Fahrenthold one is only one tweet long. Proving a negative is a very interesting journalistic exercise...

1.Trump lied to Congress that he was not meeting with any Indian casino executives when documents and sworn statements show he was.

— Kurt Eichenwald (@kurteichenwald) November 7, 2016

FINAL UPDATE: I spent 6 months looking for proof that @realDonaldTrump gives "tens of millions" to charity, as he claims. I didn't find it. pic.twitter.com/jUr2MNPfeT

— David Fahrenthold (@Fahrenthold) November 7, 2016

Peggy Noonan (November 5, 2012): Monday Morning: "We begin with the three words everyone writing about the election must say: Nobody knows anything. Everyone’s guessing...

I'm going to call this debate--from six and four years ago--for me. I do think I was right then. But even were I to concede that I was not right then about what "economics" was in its essence, I believe I can convincingly make the case that I am correct now:

• Brad DeLong Resmackdown Watch: Cosma Shalizi Argues That Brad DeLong Is an Atypical Economist:
• Hoisted from the Archives: DeLong Smackdown Watch: Cosma Shalizi Argues That Adam Smith Is Not a Real Economist Edition
• Cosma Shalizi: Pareto at Melos
• Brad DeLong Makes a Wishful Mistake
• Moral Philosophy: Chris Bertram Makes an Elementary Mistake

Here I believe Noah Smith is incomplete when he claims:

Everyone is born with an endowment of Asskickery. The state monopoly on the use of force is simply a government redistribution of Asskickery. Libertarians, of course, should realize this.

The state monopoly on the use of force is not just a redistribution of the endowment of Asskickery. It is also a revelation of who has how much of it. When the amount of Asskickery with which individuals are endowed is hidden, the requirements of the Coase Theorem are not met, and so bargaining costs keep the economy from attaining a Pareto optimum.

For example, in twelfth-century Ireland, the distribution of Asskickery among Richard "Strongbow" de Clare, Diarmait Mac Murchada, and Ruaidrí Ua Conchobair was uncertain. Richard and Diarmait could reduce their bargaining costs to zero by aligning their interests via the marriage of Diarmait's daughter Aoife to Richard (shown below). But there remained the bargaining costs between Richard and Diarmait on the one hand and Ruaidrí on the other (also shown below), which were very large and very dissipative indeed. Not a Pareto-optimal outcome in the least:

Curiously enough, if you websurf to the National Gallery of Ireland, its website focus on only a small portion of "The Marriage of Strongbow and Aoife":

Must-Read: Noah Smith: Cosma Shalizi Argues That Adam Smith Is Not a Real Economist Edition: "Everyone is born with an endowment of Asskickery...

...The state monopoly on the use of force is simply a government redistribution of Asskickery. Libertarians, of course, should realize this.

Must-Read: Branko Milanovic: The Long Shadow of 1989: "The [Eastern European] generation born around the early 1990s, which has now reached its maturity...

Must-Read: The fact that Nate Silver and http://fivethirtyeight.com choose to express their forecast as a pseudo-Bayesian win probability and relies on an underlying model in which uncertainty is necessarily symmetric has, I think, substantially impeded communication about the state of the presidential election. So let me endorse this attempt by Matthew Yglesias to bring clarity:

Matthew Yglesias: Nate Silver’s model underrates Clinton’s odds: "Even if you buy Silver’s main modeling assumptions (and I largely do)...

...there’s considerable evidence outside the realm of things captured by poll aggregators that leads me to believe that if the polls are wrong, they are more likely to be underestimating Clinton’s support than overstating it....

One of far too few Republican mensches, I must say...

Ana Navarro: [I'm voting for Hillary Clinton and against Donald Trump][]: "I didn't want to write this. I avoided making a decision as long as I could...

Straight poop? Or turn-out-the-troops optimism? While nothing optimistic from the Republican side is trustworthy, a lot of things from the Democratic side is the straight poop. Is this one of them?

Steve Schale: 1 more day. We can do this: "My most frequent model has the state going 40D, 39R, 21NPA.... We are going to land more like 39D, 38R, 23NPA...

...and with that NPA driven by Hispanics (20% of NPA voters), this really looks like a Clinton coalition.... Despite the talking points from the DNC, we are right on track. What am I worried about for HRC [in Florida]? Really, almost nothing....

Endorse: +1000

Harold Pollack: When you vote, it’s not about you or your preferred candidate: "When you vote, it’s not about you or your preferred candidate...

...A friend writes that it’s difficult for him to get excited about voting for Hillary Clinton, since he is so much more excited by Sanders, and he’s correspondingly disappointed to be on the losing end. I get that. It stinks to lose. The only thing worse than losing is to to lose in slow motion, while you are expected to put on a happy face about it. It’s important to remember something, too.

Live from the Constitutional Convention: "A republic, if you can keep it..."

Betsy Hodges: [("Donald Trump, you need to know a few things about][] Minnesota that your ignorant tirade in Minnesota today revealed you do not know and I fear you are incapable of understanding:

Drew Brighton and Bryan Whitaker: America’s Early Vote has surpassed 40 million nationwide: "TargetSmart continues to collect individual-level early vote data...

...from Secretaries of State in early-voting states across the country... [which] allows us to analyze American early voters in very insightful ways. Diving into these 42,135,837 early voters, we find some interesting things...

Sam Wang: Is 99% a Reasonable Probability?: "Three sets of data point in the same direction:

• The state poll-based Meta-Margin is Clinton +2.6%.
• National polls give a median of Clinton +3.0 +/- 0.9% (10 polls with a start date of November 1st or later).
• Early voting patterns approximately match 2012, a year when the popular vote was Obama +3.9%.

Based on this evidence, if Hillary Clinton does not win on Tuesday it will be a giant surprise.

Over at Equitable Growth: Must-Reads:

• Barry Eichengreen: Rethinking Capital Controls: "Worries persist that capital controls create a breeding ground for both corruption and distortions in resource allocation...
• Kevin Drum: Chart of the Day: Voting Intentions Are Probably Set In Stone By Now: "This chart is a follow-up to my post last night about response rates in polls...
• John Holbo: Corey Robin’s Reactionary Mind in the New Yorker: "What Matt Feeney actually says...
• Nathanael Johnson: What the New York Times missed with its big GMO story: "A big piece [by Danny Hakim] that made the front page of the New York Times... takes aim at...
• Paul Krugman (2013): Phantom Crises: "Simon Wren-Lewis is puzzled by a Ken Rogoff column that sorta-kinda defends Cameron’s austerity policies...
• Paul Krugman (2008): The Rogoff Doctrine: "Ken Rogoff is one of the world’s best macroeconomists. But...
• Richard Mayhew: County Level Inequities in the ACA: "Health wonks like to say that the ACA is not a single program but fifty-one programs... works well in some states (California) and poorly in others (Arizona) and muddles through in most...
• FT: The Prevailing Case for Caution by Central Banks: "The US Federal Reserve signalled a high likelihood that interest rates will be raised when it meets next in December...
• Cosma Shalizi: Advanced Data Analysis from an Elementary Point of View: "It Is also important to be clear that when we find the regression function is a constant...
• Nick Bunker: Technological change and upskilling in the labor market - Equitable Growth
• Emmanuel Saez: Taxing the rich more: Preliminary evidence from the 2013 tax increase - Equitable Growth
• Ken Rogoff's Hooverismo...: Hoisted from the Archives from Three Years Ago - Equitable Growth
• Note to Self: Inadequate Musings on Elements of Rogoff's Debt Supercycle Hypothesis - Equitable Growth
• Nick Bunker: Weekend reading: “Delivering equitable growth” edition - Equitable Growth
• DeLong Smackdown Watch: Simon Wren-Lewis and Ann Pettifor Take Their Whacks - Equitable Growth
• Equitable Growth: Jobs Day Graphs: October 2016 Report Edition - Equitable Growth

Must-Read: Cosma Shalizi vs. the Econometricians:

Cosma Shalizi: Advanced Data Analysis from an Elementary Point of View: "It Is also important to be clear that when we find the regression function is a constant...

Simon Wren-Lewis: Ann Pettifor on mainstream economics: "Ann has a article that talks about the underlying factor behind the Brexit vote...

...Her thesis, that it represents the discontent of those left behind by globalisation, has been put forward by others. Unlike Brad DeLong, I have few problems with seeing this as a contributing factor to Brexit, because it is backed up by evidence, but like Brad DeLong I doubt it generalises to other countries...

Comment of the Day: Rakesh Bhandari: Marx's Half-Baked Crisis Theory and His Theories of Surplus Value, Chapter 17: Hoisted from the Archives from Five Years Ago: "To compensate for a falling rate of profit, capitalists must raise the level of investment...

Joss Whedon: Verdict:

Most-Recent Must-Reads:

• Paul Krugman (2013): Phantom Crises: "Simon Wren-Lewis is puzzled by a Ken Rogoff column that sorta-kinda defends Cameron’s austerity policies...
• Paul Krugman (2008): The Rogoff Doctrine: "Ken Rogoff is one of the world’s best macroeconomists. But...
• Kenneth Rogoff: [The Fear Factor in Global Markets by][]: "Some say that governments did not do enough to stoke demand.... That is true... [but] not the whole story...
• Richard Mayhew: County Level Inequities in the ACA: "Health wonks like to say that the ACA is not a single program but fifty-one programs... works well in some states (California) and poorly in others (Arizona) and muddles through in most...
• FT: The Prevailing Case for Caution by Central Banks: "The US Federal Reserve signalled a high likelihood that interest rates will be raised when it meets next in December...

Most-Recent Links:

• Simon Wren-Lewis (2013): Ken Rogoff on UK austerity
• Ken Rogoff (2013): [Britain should not take its credit status for granted][]
• Paul Krugman (2013): Phantom Crises
• 2013: Kenneth Rogoff's Hooverismo… Matthew Klein (2013): [Ken Rogoff's Latest Bad Argument for Austerity][]
• Paul Krugman (2008): The Rogoff doctrine
• Stephanie Lo and Ken Rogoff (2015): [Secular stagnation, debt overhang and other rationales for sluggish growth, six years on][]