Radical Uncertainty, Political Risk, and Forecasting the Global Economy

Should-Read: Donald Trump wants to build infrastructure. From his perspective--and certainly from Jared Kushner's--an infrastructure bill that actually got a lot of infrastructure built would be a major plus over an infrastructure bill that did little. Trump's current infrastructure plans appear to be (a) too small, and (b) too corrupt--giveaways rather than incentives or the commitment of public money. However, Donald Trump and fiscal expansionists do share a common goal and a common wish for good implementation:

Brad Plumer: Donald Trump's Infrastructure Plan Wouldn't Actually Fix America's Infrastructure Problems: "Donald Trump loves the idea of infrastructure... wants to make an infrastructure bill a priority in his first 100 days...

...The catch, though, is that Trump doesn’t really have a plan.... All Trump has right now is an idiosyncratic proposal for Congress to offer some $137 billion in tax breaks to private investors who want to finance toll roads, toll bridges, or other projects that generate their own revenue streams. But this private financing scheme... wouldn’t address many of America’s most pressing infrastructure needs--like repairing existing roads or replacing leaky water mains in poorer communities like Flint. It’s a narrow, inadequate policy... "unlikely to do much for road and bridge maintenance," notes Harvard economist Edward Glaeser. "And [economists] have long believed that the highest returns are for fixing existing infrastructure."...

Back in September, when asked whether he would help Trump pass a $550 billion infrastructure program, House Speaker Paul Ryan initial response was a loud laugh. Infrastructure may be popular with Trump fans. But it’s not so easy to pull off in Washington.... Trump’s only concrete proposal was this slim, 10-page white paper released October 27. In it, campaign advisers Wilbur Ross and Peter Navarro proposed a set of tax breaks for private investors who want to finance infrastructure. These tax breaks, the campaign claims, could help finance $1 trillion worth of projects...

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