Straight poop? Or turn-out-the-troops optimism? While nothing optimistic from the Republican side is trustworthy, a lot of things from the Democratic side is the straight poop. Is this one of them?
Steve Schale: 1 more day. We can do this: "My most frequent model has the state going 40D, 39R, 21NPA.... We are going to land more like 39D, 38R, 23NPA...
...and with that NPA driven by Hispanics (20% of NPA voters), this really looks like a Clinton coalition.... Despite the talking points from the DNC, we are right on track. What am I worried about for HRC [in Florida]? Really, almost nothing....
The diversity mix is rounding nicely into shape, and our best counties are way out-performing the state. Right now, she needs the organization on the ground to get this done on Tuesday. Could there be a Trump surge on Tuesday? It is possible, because the counties most under-performing right now are Trump counties. His problem, most of them are very small, part of what Jonathan Martin called the Gingrich Counties (where Newt beat Romney)-- those rural places in-between all the big counties.... The I-10 markets are way below where they should be, maybe as much as 3% below where its share should be. If that comes in tomorrow, it will tighten the race considerably.... If she wins by 3, we will know pretty well, probably before the Panhandle returns come back after 8. If it is close, prepare for a long night.
One last thing -- and this is just for the FL HRC organizers out there. You all got this. This thing is right there. You've spent 6 months training for this moment. This is what you built for. Do your job today and tomorrow, stay focused on your goals, and you can say you made history.
