Previous month:
November 2016
Next month:
January 2017

December 2016

Procrastinating on December 31, 2016

Preview of Procrastinating on November 20 2016

Interesting Reads:

Continue reading "Procrastinating on December 31, 2016" »


Must-Read: Answer: we don't. We never have. The question of "how do we deal with the bad effects of policies to enrich the country and the world as a whole by increasing trade?" have always been met by: "we reject burial insurance; we don't want it". The question of "how do we deal with the bad effects of technological transformation?" have always been met by: "it's foreigners fault; we blame them"--taking, as Pascal Lamy says, the finger of globalization for the moon of market capitalism. The real question is: How to deal with market capitalism's transformation of land, labor, and finance into "commodities"--and thus of their communities, their income levels, and their industries into things that must pass a market profitability test--and people's Polanyian discovery that what they thought were rights to community prosperity, income levels, and occupations are not recognized because they are not secured by property rights? That question is never engaged with--because foreigners (or immigrants) are there to be blamed for eveything that goes wrong:

Pedro de Costa: After the US elections, how do we return to a constructive debate about trade?: "Governments need to get serious about the very real possibility that employment trends... driven by technology and robotics may happen more quickly than public policy can adapt...

Continue reading "" »


Kansas and the myth of trickle down tax cuts Jared Bernstein On the Economy

Must-Read: Yes. Steven Moore is incompetent. Why do you ask? For him to say that he was surprised at the fact that lots of people used the pass-through income loophole in the plan he sold Kansas Governor Brownback is for him to admit he has no business recommending policies to anybody:

Jared Bernstein: Kansas and the myth of trickle-down tax cuts: "This WSJ piece about the ongoing supply-side tax cut experiment in Kansas...

Continue reading "" »


Must-Read: As I see it, we had six system failures in the past election--none of which I was greatly concerned about last July. Silly me:

  1. The electoral college, which always has a 10% failure rate, and failed again.
  2. The Republican establishment continued its pattern that it had established in mid-2015--of backing Trump enthusiastically in public while deploring him and his supporters in private, hoping that somebody else would solve the problem.
  3. A Washington-New York press corps that decided that what the fall campaign really needed was a thumb on the scale against Hillary Rodham Clinton--who needed to be taken down a peg--and conversely extremely light scrutiny on any one of Trump's flaws.
  4. A tabloid-Fox-cable press corps that thought enthusiastic coverage of Trump was good business.
  5. Putin.
  6. Comey.

All six of those had to break for Trump for him to win the electoral college, and he still lost the popular vote by 3 million. If I had been thinking last July, I would have thought that each of these (well, not (2)) was a 50-50 shot:

Alan S. Blinder: The American Public Against Trump: "One presidential candidate won nearly three million more votes than her opponent...

Continue reading "" »


Procrastinating on December 29, 2016

Preview of Procrastinating on November 20 2016

Over at Equitable Growth: Must- and Should-Reads:

Continue reading "Procrastinating on December 29, 2016 " »


The Age of Incompetence: Live from Project Syndicate

Clowns (ICP)

The Age of Incompetence: BERKELEY – On January 20, 2017, US President-elect Donald Trump will take office having received almost three million fewer votes than his opponent; and he will work with a Republican Senate majority whose members won 13 million fewer votes than their Democratic opponents. Only the Republican majority in the House of Representatives, led by Speaker Paul Ryan, has any claim to represent a numerical majority of the 55% of Americans who voted on Election Day 2016. Trump will also begin his presidency with an approval rating below 50%. This is unprecedented – or “unpresidented,” as one of his semi-literate tweets put it (before he deleted it) – in the history of such ratings... **Read MOAR at Project Syndicate


Should-Read: Three points not made by Paul Krugman:

  1. "We" collect revenue from a tariff--in addition to its other effects, it's a way for "us" to make "them" pay somewhat for some of the things our government does.

  2. Over and above this, the dollar appreciation resulting from a tariff means that our terms of trade improve: we get to buy more stuff for each of our exports.

  3. Foreigners will retaliate.

If not for (3), (1) and (2) would together create a pretty strong optimal tariff argument for a tariff. But (3) blows that case up. With (3), a trade war improves the position of import-competing industries and scarce factors both at home and abroad. But with even a moderate amount of increasing returns in the mix it would be a rare import-competing industry whose stakeholders benefitted, and a rare scarce factor that wound up with higher real incomes:

Paul Krugman: Tariffs and the Trade Balance: "The standard story... the capital account is determined by international differences in savings and investment opportunities, with capital inflows to countries that offer good returns...

Continue reading "" »


"Fictitious" Wealth and Ludwig von Mises: Hoisted from the Archives from 2011

C. Trombley reminds me of: "Fictitious" Wealth and Ludwig von Mises: Over in comments, rootless_e warns:

Attempts to make sense out of right wing Austrian economics can never amount to anything.

Nevertheless, like a moth to a flame--or like a dog to vomit, or like a dog to something worse--whenever I see something like:

Continue reading ""Fictitious" Wealth and Ludwig von Mises: Hoisted from the Archives from 2011" »


Comment of the Day: I would note that by the mid-1980s fiscal policy was nowheresville--that the consensus was that monetary policy was much better suited for the task for a large number of reasons, and that fiscal policy (besides automatic stabilizers, which were regarded as helpful) was unnecessary either because the liquidity trap was a historical curiosity or because it did not exist--that cash money burned a hole in people's pockets even when short-term safe nominal interest rates were zero. And then, of course, there followed what Robert Waldmann correctly calls: "the decision to abandon methodological individualism and instead assume Nash equilibrium, Clairvoyance and ESP (but I repeat myself)" that led "otherwise reasonable people" into incoherence:

Charles Steindel: Undergrad Textbook Macro vs. Really Existing Academic Macro: "I think you are basically right, but the QE story is more complex...

Continue reading "" »


Procrastinating on December 26, 2016

Preview of Procrastinating on November 20 2016

Over at Equitable Growth: Must- and Should-Reads:

Continue reading "Procrastinating on December 26, 2016" »


Links for the Week of December 25, 2016

Most-Recent Must-Reads:

  • Paul Krugman: Will Fiscal Policy Really Be Expansionary?: "It’s now generally accepted that Trumpism will finally involve the kind of fiscal stimulus progressive economists have been pleading for... (M)
  • Tim Duy: Fed Turns Hawkish: "The FOMC raised the... federal funds rate by 25bp today, as expected... (Tu)
  • Ben Thompson: Reconsidering Uber: "Part 2 is far better, and in many respects redeems the series... (Tu)
  • Simon Wren-Lewis: Understanding Free Trade: "There you have, in one calm and measured paragraph, the contradiction at the heart of the argument... (Tu)
  • Martin Wolf: Democrats, Demagogues and Despots: "Fear and rage must not be used as an excuse to destroy America’s core institutions... (W)
  • Dietz Vollrath: Can You Do Historical Counter-Factuals?: "Studying slavery and capitalism, for example, we do not have thousands of different societies or cultures to page through... (Th)
  • Robert Skidelsky: Economists versus the Economy: "Why did [economists] miss the storm?... Queen Elizabeth... asked a group of economists... (F)

Most-Recent Should-Reads:


Most-Recent Links:

Continue reading "Links for the Week of December 25, 2016" »


Hoisted from the Archives from Five Years Ago: "Ricardian Equivalence" Is a Claim That Tax Cuts Are Ineffective Stimulus, Not That Spending Increases Are

Clowns (ICP)

"Ricardian Equivalence" Is a Claim That Tax Cuts Are Ineffective Stimulus, Not That Spending Increases Are: I learned this from Andy Abel and Olivier Blanchard, almost before my eyes first opened: increases in government purchases are ineffective at boosting real aggregate demand only if both (a) 'Ricardian Equivalence' holds, and (b) what the government buys (and distributes to households) is exactly what households would buy for themselves.

'Ricardian Equivalence' by itself simply does not do it.

Continue reading "Hoisted from the Archives from Five Years Ago: "Ricardian Equivalence" Is a Claim That Tax Cuts Are Ineffective Stimulus, Not That Spending Increases Are" »


Should-Read: I prefer Henry Rosovsky's formulation: "I convinced the Japan scholars that I was indispensable because I was an expert economist who would talk to them; and I convinced the economists that I was indispensable because I was an expert Japan scholar who would talk to them":

Pseudoerasmus: About: "This blog is (mostly) about economic history, growth, and development...

Continue reading "" »


Must-Read: Paul Krugman likes to say that macroeconomics has done fine since 2007. And Jim Tobin's macroeconomics has. John Maynard Keynes's macroeconomics has. Walter Bagehot, Hyman Minsky, and Charlie Kindleberger's macroeconomics has done fine.

But Bagehot and Minsky influenced the then top-five American economics departments--Chicago, MIT, Harvard, Princeton, Yale--only through Kindlberger. Charlie went emeritus from MIT in 1976 and died in 1991, and MIT made a decision--a long series of repeated decisions, in fact--that there was no space on its faculty for anybody like Charlie.

When Robert Skidelsky says "macroeconomics", he means the macroeconomics of RBC and DSGE and ratex and the Great Moderation. And he is right: Alesina and Ardagna and Reinhart and Rogoff each had more influence on what policymakers and journalists thought about the effects of fiscal policy than did Paul Krugman and company, (including me). While the Federal Reserve went full-tilt into quantitative easing (but not stamped money or helicopter money), it did so in the face of considerable know-nothing opposition. And the ECB lagged far behind in terms of even understanding its mission. Why? Because Taylor, Boskin, Calomiris, Lucas, Fama, and company had almost as much impact as did Paul Krugman and company.

"Basic macro" did fine. But basic macro was not the really-existing macro that mattered:

Paul Krugman: Don't Blame Macroeconomics (Wonkish And Petty): "Robert Skidelsky... argues, quite correctly in my view, that economists have become far too inward-looking...

Continue reading "" »


Towards a Reinvigorated Public (and Academic-Intellectual) Sphere...

School of Athens

What should I be doing that I am not doing?


Schoolmen, and Others, as Public Intellectuals...

School of Athens

In retrospect, I like my "The Economist as...?: The Public Square and Economists" paper for the Notre Dame "public intellectualism" conference (and the newly-published conference volume) very much indeed.

It would be very nice if more people read it, and talked about it...

A discussion page...

Plus my note on an unfavorable review of the book in the Wall Street Journal, and some recent musings on failures of economists as public intellectuals.

Michael C. Desch, ed.: Public Intellectuals in the Global Arena: Professors or Pundits? (South Bend, IN: University of Notre Dame Press: 0268100241) http://amzn.to/2ifc7qn

Continue reading "Schoolmen, and Others, as Public Intellectuals..." »


The Value of the History of Economic Thought: Hoisted from the Archives from 2003

Florence in the renaissance Google Search

2003: On Machiavelli's "Letter to Vettori," or, The Value of the History of Economic Thought: A surprisingly-large number of people have recently asked me why I am interested in the history of economic thought. They make various points. First, we don't learn physics from Galileo's Discourse on Two New Sciences. There are other, better, more complete, more accurate ways of presenting the material. In any real body of knowledge, the more up-to-date has to be preferred to the less because we know more than they did.

Continue reading "The Value of the History of Economic Thought: Hoisted from the Archives from 2003" »


Procrastinating on December 23, 2016

Preview of Procrastinating on November 20 2016

Over at Equitable Growth: Must- and Should-Reads:

Continue reading "Procrastinating on December 23, 2016" »


Missing the Economic Big Picture: No Longer so Fresh at Project Syndicate

Moons

Missing the Economic Big Picture: As former WTO Director-General Pascal Lamy said earlier this month in my hearing, quoting from a conversation between Wu Jincang and Chinese Sixth Buddhist Patriarch Huineng:

"When the philosopher points at the moon, the fool looks at the finger". Market capitalism is the moon. Globalization is the finger.

Between the Little Englanders' BREXIT vote and those currently installing Donald Trump in the American presidency in the belief that he will make America great again by negotiating very different "trade deals", there has been a lot of finger-watching this year.

Continue reading "Missing the Economic Big Picture: No Longer so Fresh at Project Syndicate" »


Must-Read: Do historians do counter-factuals? Yes. Can you do historical counter-factuals? Yes. Could you do without historical counter-factuals? No. A world in which historians do not engage in and with counterfactuals would e a world in which human actions have no meaning, because you would never be able to say "this mattered"--you would only be able to say "this happened, and then that happened, and that is what was". And why would anyone with any volition at all wish to create or live in such a world?

Dietz Vollrath: Can You Do Historical Counter-Factuals?: "Studying slavery and capitalism, for example, we do not have thousands of different societies or cultures to page through...

Continue reading "" »


Public Intellectualism: Wednesday Economic History

Public Intellectuals

A correspondent tells me that the Wall Street Journal has reviewed the book from our Notre Dame public intellectuals conference of three years ago and that, while the book is trashed, my piece is called "entertaining and enlightening" by the reviewer Daniel Johnson. This greatly pleases me--enlightenment is all one can hope for, and if one is entertaining as well one may be read even by those who do not get paid to do so. That makes my--personal--day, and I gratefully thank him.

Unfortunately, he also writes:

Continue reading "Public Intellectualism: Wednesday Economic History" »


Procrastinating on December 21, 2016

Preview of Procrastinating on November 20 2016

Over at Equitable Growth: Must- and Should-Reads:

Continue reading "Procrastinating on December 21, 2016 " »