Should-Read: Robert Waldmann: Marking My Beliefs To Market: UK Violent Crime: "The lead causes crime hypothesis...
...I consider myself an early supporter.... In April 2008, I predicted that the UK violent crime rate would peak some time around 2008 <http://rjwaldmann.blogspot.it/2008/04/get-lead-out-in-freakiest-bit-of.html>. I just googled and found that it peaked in around 2006 or 2007. I'd say the prediction worked out pretty well.