A Month-Long April Fools Festival of Kevin Hassett: Dow 36000 Round I

Reading: Nathan Nunn (2008): The Long-Term Effects of Africa’s Slave Trades

Nathan Nunn (2008): The Long-Term Effects of Africa’s Slave Trades, Quarterly Journal of Economics 123 (February): 139–176 <http://www.jstor.org/stable/pdfplus/25098896.pdf>

  • From 8 to 6.5 in the natural log…
  • exp(1.5) = 4.5: This is enormous! Is this credible? More than 80% of potential wealth today destroyed by something that ended 200 years ago!?
    • Do we need controls?
      • Or, rather, what controls do we need?
  • What else might be going on here?
  • Do we need instruments?
    • What are our instruments?
    • What is our first stage?
    • Is this a “weak instrument”?
  • Under what circumstances is a strong instrument “weak”?
    • Do we need channels?
    • What are our channels?
    • What would a Bayesian say about the publication filter and the file-drawer problem?

Cf: Nathan Nunn (2017): Understanding the long-run effects of Africa’s slave trades <http://voxeu.org/article/understanding-long-run-effects-africa-s-slave-trades>