Grasping Reality on TypePad, by Brad DeLong

Should-Reads:

• Adam Tooze: Reviewing ‘How Will Capitalism End?’ by Wolfgang Streeck: "Streeck draws urgent practical conclusions... https://www.lrb.co.uk/v39/n01/adam-tooze/a-general-logic-of-crisis
• Arindrajit Dube: Minimum wages and the distribution of family incomes in the United States: "I find robust evidence that higher minimum wages lead to increases... http://equitablegrowth.org/research-analysis/minimum-wages-and-the-distribution-of-family-incomes-in-the-us/
• Greg Leiserson: A premature promise on tax rates could threaten tax reform http://equitablegrowth.org/research-analysis/a-premature-promise-on-tax-rates-could-threaten-tax-reform/: "Mulvaney’s suggestion that the announcement may include an indication of the administration’s proposed rates and little else...
• Kavya Vaghul: How gig economy companies fit (or don’t fit) into the tax systemEquitable Growth http://equitablegrowth.org/equitablog/value-added/how-gig-economy-companies-fit-or-dont-fit-into-the-tax-system/: "These companies and the people they hire via individual contracts may not yet be...
• George Callas: Donald Trump's corporate tax cuts can't pass Congress: "Here is a data point for folks... http://www.slate.com/blogs/moneybox/2017/04/25/donald_trump_s_corporate_tax_cuts_can_t_pass_congress.html
• Kavya Vaghul: The student loan crisis is fueled by a weak labor market: "Holger M. Mueller and Constantine Yannelis... investigate how massive declines in home prices during the Great Recession... http://equitablegrowth.org/equitablog/value-added/the-student-loan-crisis-is-fueled-by-a-weak-labor-market/
• Sarah Kliff: Republicans exempt their own insurance from their latest health care proposal: "The new Republican amendment... would allow states to waive out of Obamacare’s ban on pre-existing conditions... https://www.vox.com/2017/4/25/15429982/gop-exemption-ahca-amendment
• Trade, Jobs, and Inequality http://www.gc.cuny.edu/All-GC-Events/Calendar/Detail?id=38997: "CUNY :: The Graduate Center :: 365 Fifth Avenue :: C200: Proshansky Auditorium :: April 26, 2017: 6:30 PM http://www.gc.cuny.edu/publicprograms...
• Peter Ganong and Pascal Noel: Consumer spending during unemployment: Positive and normative implications: "We study... unemployment insurance... using de-identified data from nearly 200,000 bank accounts... http://equitablegrowth.org/working-papers/consumer-spending-during-unemployment/
• Nisha Chikhale: The importance of unemployment benefits for protecting against income drops: "Jesse Rothstein... and Robert Valletta... the role that unemployment insurance plays in supporting family incomes... http://equitablegrowth.org/equitablog/value-added/the-importance-of-unemployment-benefits-for-protecting-against-income-drops/
• Dietrich Vollrath: Topics in Economic Growth: "I just created some new pages... https://growthecon.com/blog/Topics-Pages/

* Nick Bunker: Weekend reading: “Link pass-through entity” edition | Equitable Growth: "Arindarjit Dube summarizes his recent research on the effect of minimum wage hikes on family incomes... http://equitablegrowth.org/equitablog/weekend-reading-link-pass-through-entity-edition/

Links:

• Noah Smith: The siren song of homogeneity http://noahpinionblog.blogspot.com/2017/04/the-siren-song-of-homogeneity.html
• Olivier Blanchard: "The current core... RBC... wit... nominal rigidities, seems too much at odds with reality.... The Euler equation for consumers and the pricing equation for price-setters seem to imply... much too forward lookingness.... The core model must have nominal rigidities, bounded rationality and limited horizons, incomplete markets and the role of debt..."
  • On the Need for (At Least) Five Classes of Macro Models https://piie.com/blogs/realtime-economic-issues-watch/need-least-five-classes-macro-models
  • The Need for Different Classes of Macroeconomic Models https://piie.com/blogs/realtime-economic-issues-watch/need-different-classes-macroeconomic-models
  • Further Thoughts on DSGE Models https://piie.com/blogs/realtime-economic-issues-watch/further-thoughts-dsge-models
  • Do DSGE Models Have a Future? https://piie.com/system/files/documents/pb16-11.pdf
• Markus Brunnermeier et al.: A safe asset for Europe https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2017/04/28/2188024/guest-post-a-safe-asset-for-europe/
• Ulrike Malmendier: Publicani https://eml.berkeley.edu/~ulrike/Papers/Publicani_Article_v5.pdf
• Ulrike Malmendier: Law and Finance “at the Origin” https://eml.berkeley.edu/~ulrike/Papers/JELDraft73_withabstract_andTable.pdf
• Graduate Center CUNY Presents: The First 100 Days http://www.gc.cuny.edu/All-GC-Events/GC-Presents/The-First-100-Days
• Joe Gagnon: We Know What Causes Trade Deficits: "A country can have a trade deficit only if it is borrowing.... Trade barriers have only minor effects on borrowing and lending decisions... cause the exchange rate to appreciate to bring about offsetting changes in other imports and exports..." https://piie.com/blogs/trade-investment-policy-watch/we-know-what-causes-trade-deficits
• Richard Bushman et al.: Mormon History Shows the Dangers of Targeting Muslims http://mormonscholarsbrief.blogspot.com/2017/04/testing-testing.html
• Paul Murphy: It seems Google and Facebook really are taking ALL the growth in ad revenue | FT Alphaville https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2017/04/26/2187891/it-seems-google-and-facebook-really-are-taking-all-the-growth-in-ad-revenue/
• Risk Parity http://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/risk-parity.asp
• Ernesto Dal Bó, Frederico Finan, Olle Folke, Torsten Persson, and Johanna Rickne: Democracy and meritocracy: "Swedish population data on cognitive and leadership ability... argue that[s] democracy in Sweden has created... inclusive meritocracy... avoid[ing] the tension between representation and competence..." http://voxeu.org/article/democracy-and-meritocracy
• Lorenzo Caliendo, Robert Feenstra, John Romalis, and Alan Taylor: Theory and evidence for the last two decades of tariff reductions: "Standard trade models have missed an important source of gains from trade by neglecting... production linkages and multiple sectors. Under monopolistic competition, the effects of firm entry may be so powerful that optimal tariffs are not positive but negative. Even the removal of small positive tariffs could thus produce significant welfare gains..." http://voxeu.org/article/theory-and-evidence-last-two-decades-tariff-reductions
• Loren Adler and Paul B. Ginsburg: Obamacare Premiums Are Lower Than You Think: "Average premiums in the individual market actually dropped significantly upon implementation of the ACA... people are getting more for less under the ACA..." http://healthaffairs.org/blog/2016/07/21/obamacare-premiums-are-lower-than-you-think/
• Diane Coyle: Contradictions of Capital http://www.chronicle.com/article/Contradictions-of-Capital/239829
• Patee House Museum http://ponyexpressjessejames.com/patee/index.php
• Colossal (2017) https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/colossal/
• Jesse Rothstein & Robert G. Valletta: Scraping by: Income and program participation after the loss of extended unemployment benefits | Equitable Growth: "We identify individuals whose jobless spells outlasted their UI benefits (exhaustees) and examine household income, program participation, and health-related outcomes..." http://equitablegrowth.org/working-papers/income-after-loss-of-extended-unemployment-benefits/
• Kevin Drum: Quote of the Day: I Only Said NATO Was Obsolete Because I Didn't Know Anything About NATO http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2017/04/quote-day-i-said-nato-was-obsolete-because-i-didnt-know-anything-about-nato
• Carol Atack: Three Views of Thucydides: https://anachronismandantiquity.wordpress.com/2017/04/24/three-views/
• Sonam Sheth: Merkel had to explain trade to Trump 11 times - Business Insider: "Ten times Trump asked if he could negotiate a trade deal with Germany.... On the eleventh refusal, Trump finally got the message, 'Oh, we’ll do a deal with Europe then.'..." http://www.businessinsider.com/trump-trade-merkel-germany-eu-2017-4
• Nouriel Roubini: A Fiscal Reality Test for US Republicans: "The only sensible way to provide tax relief to middle- and lower-income workers is to raise taxes on the rich... a socially progressive populist idea that a pseudo-populist plutocrat like Trump will never accept.... Republicans will continue to delude themselves..." https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/trump-republicans-tax-reform-failure-by-nouriel-roubini-2017-04
• Alan Auerbach et al.: How the Growing Gap in Life Expectancy May Affect Retirement Benefits and Reforms http://papers.nber.org/tmp/16516-w23329.pdf