Must-Read: If you told me that the Federal Reserve had a 1.5%/year core PCE chain index inflation target, I would believe you:

Jay C Shambaugh on Twitter More evidence of slowing inflation lately core pce prices up just 0 1 p p in May 12 month change 1 4 down from 1 6 in 12 months prior https t co cnuSyf4ycB

In retrospect (as it was for some of us in prospect), the Federal Reserve's decision in mid-2013 to switch from signaling that it had a bias toward further easing to a bias toward tightening, and that investors should plan to see a major tightening cycle soon, was clearly wrong. And I still see no rationale for sticking with the policy of continuing to signal that the Federal Reserve has a bias toward tightening, and that investors should plan to see a major tightening cycle soon:

Jay C. Shambaugh: On Twitter: Slowing Inflation: "More evidence of slowing inflation lately: core pce prices up just 0.1 p.p. in May. 12 month change 1.4% (down from 1.6% in 12 months prior..." https://twitter.com/JayCShambaugh/status/880804850002526208

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