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June 2017

Ten Years Ago in Grasping Reality: June 11-13, 2007

Two very much worth highlighting and hoisting:

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Monday DeLong Smackdown Watch/Hoisted from 2005: Ignorance Corrected!

Ben Weiss, Curator of Rare Books at the Burndy Library of MIT's Dibner Institute for the History of Science and Technology:

Ben Weiss: Brad DeLong's Website: DeLong's Ignorance Corrected!: "First off, I love your blog, and read it avidly; many thanks for the wide learning and elegant argument... http://www.j-bradford-delong.net/movable_type/2005-3_archives/000643.html

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Links for the Week of June 13, 2017

Must-Reads:

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Yes: The ZLB Is a Big Deal, or, Brad Goes Down a Rabbit Hole...

So I was looking up a reference on the conditions under which it is optimal for a central bank to lean against the wind in following a rule for setting its policy interest rate...

...and I found myself reading Larry Ball (1997): Efficient Rules for Monetary Policy http://delong.typepad.com/ball-1997-efficient-rules.pdf. And then I got distracted...

John Taylor (1993): Discretion Versus Policy Rules in Practice http://delong.typepad.com/taylor-1993-discretion.pdf started the discussion. He argued that, when the Federal Reserve was behaving well, it had chosen to follow Taylor's rule, and sett its real short-term safe policy interest rate r equal to:

r = r* + (0.5)(π - π*) + (0.5)y

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Weekend Reading: Ezra Klein: Donald Trump’s Presidency is an American Crisis

Weekend Reading: Ezra Klein: Donald Trump’s presidency is an American crisi: "On Friday, January 6, FBI Director James Comey met with President-elect Donald Trump... https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/6/7/15758816/donald-trump-comey-crisis

...His task was awkward; he needed to inform Trump that the FBI’s counterintelligence unit was investigating claims that Russia had embarrassing blackmail material on the billionaire real estate developer. Something in Trump’s reaction disturbed Comey. “I felt compelled to document my first conversation with the President-Elect in a memo,” he recalls in testimony prepared for the Senate Intelligence Committee. The compulsion to record the conversation was fierce and immediate; Comey didn’t even wait to get back to his hotel. “I began to type it on a laptop in an FBI vehicle outside Trump Tower the moment I walked out of the meeting.” From then on, Comey began documenting all his meetings with Trump. “This had not been my practice in the past,” he says.

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Hoisted from Ten Years Ago: An Unrealistic, Impractical, Utopian Plan for Dealing with the Health Care Opportunity

(2007): An Unrealistic, Impractical, Utopian Plan for Dealing with the Health Care Opportunity http://www.bradford-delong.com/2007/06/dealing_with_th.html: Felix Salmon deploys me as a weapon in an internecine struggle with his fellow Portfolio magazine writer Russ Mitchell Kevin Maney by blogging a piece of our coffee yesterday at Strada, at the corner of Bancroft and College, in Berkeley:

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Weekend Reading: Joseph Brodsky: How to Read a Book

Joseph Brodsky (1988): How to Read a Book: "THE idea of a book fair in the city where, a century ago, Friedrich Nietzsche lost his mind has, in its own turn, a nice ring of madness...

...a Mobius ring to be precise (commonly known as a vicious circle), for several stalls in this book fair are occupied by the complete or selected works of this great German. On the whole, infinity is a fairly palpable aspect of this business of publishing, if only because it extends a dead author's existence beyond the limits he envisioned, or provides a living author with a future he cannot measure. In other words, this business deals with the future which we all prefer to regard as unending.

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I Am Heartened by the Improvement in the Prime-Age Employment Rate. Now Let Us Let It Continue Rather than Stopping It...

Employment Rate Aged 25 54 All Persons for the United States© FRED St Louis Fed

Here in the United States, there were always three arrows to "hysteresis"—to the argument that the failure to adopt policies that properly fought the downturn of 2008-2009 in an aggressive manner to restore full employment rapidly did not just temporary but permanent damage to the economy's productive potential. A long period of very slack demand:

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Should-Read: The surprising thing about B.G.'s long and convoluted Fed-hiking-interest-rates-to-punish-market-like-taking-away-LEGOS-to-punish-misbehaving-toddler metaphor is this: the markets have not misbehaved.

It is as if the parent (Federal Reserve) said: "you, toddler, are going to misbehave" (inflationary pressures will emerge), so I will take your LEGOS away (raise interest rates)." Yet the toddler does not misbehave (inflationary pressures do not emerge). But even so the parent (Federal Reserve) then says: "I have to take your Legos away because I said I would (I have to raise interest rates because I said I would), even though you did not misbehave (even though inflationary pressures did not emerge)."

This certainly gains you a credible reputation.

But is it really the kind of credible reputation you actually want to have?

And yet B.G. thinks that this is a normal and acceptable way to behave...

And at this point I suggest that the entire FOMC—and B.G.—enroll in Daniel Davies's One-Minute-MBA course, and that the Federal Reserve print up the $30,000 fee for each of the 19 notional FOMC meeting principal participants, and pay it to him...

B.G.: Because I said so: Why the Fed is likely to raise rates, despite low inflation: "Like a parent teaching a child it means business, the Fed may feel it must hike to preserve its credibility with financial markets... http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2017/06/because-i-said-so

Continue reading "" »


Procrastinating on June 10, 2017

We re All Public Intellectuals Now The National Interest

Over at Equitable Growth: Must- and Should-Reads:

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Should-Read: Kavya Vaghul: Weekend reading: the “real-live experiment” edition: "Monetary policy can help increase consumption through redistributing income across households...

...JOLTS... came out this week.... Is inequality affecting global macroeconomic and financial stability? Salvatore Morelli explores.... Kansas’s state legislature voted to increase taxes, overriding the $1.2 billion in tax cuts ordered by Governor Sam Brownback.... The poorest Americans pay a surprisingly high percent of their income in taxes.... Corporate governance reform has seen mixed results, argues John Matsusaka.... Carola Binder takes a closer look at labor market trends that help explain why the United States continues to experience low core inflation..."

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Ten Years Ago in Grasping Reality: June 8-June 10, 2007

One thing very much worth hoisting and highlighting, on all the little lies the journamalists tell every day about how much they know and how good their sources of information are: KEVIN DRUM ON JOE KLEIN AND THE LITTLE DECEPTIONS OF THE MAINSTREAM MEDIA http://www.bradford-delong.com/2007/06/kevin_drum_on_j.html

And a bunch of others.

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Hoisted: Journamalists Who See No Problem in Lying About Little Things and Lying About Big Things: Kevin Drum on Joe Klein and the Little Deceptions of the Mainstream Media

This may be the best thing I have written on how little the Washington journamalists know, and how desperately eager they are to play Dingbat Kabuki and tell little lies to pretend to people that they know more than they do:


Hoisted from Ten Years Ago: Kevin Drum on Joe Klein and the Little Deceptions of the Mainstream Media http://www.bradford-delong.com/2007/06/kevin_drum_on_j.html: Kevin Drum writes: "The Washington Monthly: THE POLITICAL PAST TENSE.... In his column this week griping about blogger bile, Joe Klein lets us in on a trick of the trade...

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My Sections: As Delivered: Fed Up Rethink 2% Inflation Target Blue-Ribbon Commission Conference Call

3 Month Treasury Bill Secondary Market Rate FRED St Louis Fed

Opening Statement (as Delivered): I digress from my job here to say that I agree with everything that Jason and Josh have said. They do not speak just for themselves. They speak for me as well.

And let me also digress by trumping both Jason and Josh.

Continue reading "My Sections: As Delivered: Fed Up Rethink 2% Inflation Target Blue-Ribbon Commission Conference Call" »


(Early) Monday Smackdown: Annals of Low-Quality Sociometry: Andrew Sullivan Edition

Hoisted from 2006: Annals of Low-Quality Sociometry http://www.bradford-delong.com/2006/11/annals_of_lowqu.html: even Drum: "Here is a complete post from Andrew Sullivan last night:

The Black-White Test Score Gap: It isn't going away. Charles Murray and James Flynn debate why here.

Really? The fact that Charles Murray thinks the gap isn't going away is hardly news, but does James Flynn agree? That would be dispiriting indeed. But there's no need to give up hope. Here's what Flynn really said:

We analyzed data from nine standardization samples for four major tests of cognitive ability. These data suggest that Blacks gained 4 to 7 IQ points on non-Hispanic Whites between 1972 and 2002. Gains have been fairly uniform across the entire range of Black cognitive ability.

That sure doesn't sound like "it isn't going away" to me. Murray and Flynn aren't debating "why," they're debating "whether." And Flynn has the better of the argument.

November 30, 2006


Weekend Reading: Ralf Dahrendorf on Frank Fukuyama: from "Reflections on the Revolution in Europe"

Let me note that the very sharp Ralf Dahrendorf is, I think, pretty much 100% wrong here in his criticisms of Frank—but it is worth noting precisely because Frank's "The End of History?" struck such a powerful nerve here...

Weekend Reading: Ralf Dahrendorf on Frank Fukuyama: from Reflections on the Revolution in Europe http://amzn.to/2setj8C: "It is perhaps not surprising that Hayek's near-total constitutionalism...

...made him view the course of events in the world with unrelenting gloom as late as 1988, when The Fatal Conceit was first published. After all, it is said that he regards even Margaret Thatcher as a traitor to the pure doctrine of Hayekism. Others who share Hayek's frame of mind, though hardly his erudition and perseverance, have interpreted the events of 1989 more airily and instantaneously as the triumph of capitalism over socialism.

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A Few Notes on Higher Education in the Age of Trump...

I wrote http://www.bradford-delong.com/2017/06/must-read-two-points-diversity-and-finding-truth-in-the-sense-of-rough-consensus-and-running-code-where-i-think-larry.html: "Two points (diversity and finding truth in the sense of rough consensus and running code) where I think Larry Summers is 100% correct. One point (Charles Murray) where I think Larry is broadly right but that things are more complicated. And one point (sensitivity training) where I think Larry Summers is more wrong than right. But more on that anon. Definitely worth reading."

This is the "anon":

(1 & 2) The two points where I think Larry is 100% correct are:

Continue reading "A Few Notes on Higher Education in the Age of Trump..." »


Must-Read: Two points (diversity and finding truth in the sense of rough consensus and running code) where I think Larry Summers is 100% correct. One point (Charles Murray) where I think Larry is broadly right but that things are more complicated. And one point (sensitivity training) where I think Larry Summers is more wrong than right—I think every faculty member should be encouraged to think about how he can avoid being a dick. But more on that anon. Definitely worth reading:

Larry Summers: How elite universities meet the challenges of the Trump era: "Rebecca Blumenstein... our conversation focused on how elite universities are meeting the challenges of the Trump era... https://www.ft.com/content/99cc63cd-7e59-3390-a052-6fcb654eb161

Continue reading "" »


Why the Fed Should Rethink Its 2%/Year No-Lookback Inflation Target

3 Month Treasury Bill Secondary Market Rate FRED St Louis Fed

Conference call today at 9:00 PDT/noon EDT on why the Federal Reserve would be very smart to abandon its 2%/year no-lookback inflation target for a less destructive policy framework. The call is to be moderated Shawn Sebastian. Then Josh Bivens will summarize his short whitepaper: “Is 2% Too Low? Rethinking the Fed’s Arbitrary Inflation Target to Avoid Another Great Recession” http://www.epi.org/publication/is-2-percent-too-low/. Jason Furman will talk about the evidence for the fall in the equilibrium Wicksellian neutral rate of interest and the implications of that for optimal monetary policy. I come next. Joe Stiglitz wraps up. And then questions from reporters.

My task today is to set out what the arguments on the other side are—and why we do not find them convincing:

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Comment of the Day: Charles Steindel: On the Negative Information Revealed by Marvin Goodfriend's "I Don't Teach IS-LM": "Macroeconomics is all about the interplay between the markets for final goods and services and the markets for existing assets (mainly financial)... http://www.bradford-delong.com/2017/06/on-the-negative-information-revealed-by-marvin-goodfriends-i-dont-teach-is-lm.html?cid=6a00e551f08003883401bb09a35c7d970d#comment-6a00e551f08003883401bb09a35c7d970d

Continue reading " " »


Ten Years Ago at Grasping Reality: June 7, 2017—Four Pieces, None Especially Worth Highlighting...


Procrastinating on June 7, 2017

We re All Public Intellectuals Now The National Interest

Over at Equitable Growth: Must- and Should-Reads:

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On the Negative Information Revealed by Marvin Goodfriend's "I Don't Teach IS-LM"

3 Month Treasury Bill Secondary Market Rate FRED St Louis Fed

The smart and snarky Sam Bell wants to taunt me into rising to his bait by twittering https://twitter.com/sam_a_bell/status/872116967070732288 a quote from likely Fed nominee Marvin Goodfriend: "I don't teach IS-LM". He succeeds. Here is the quote:

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Hoisted: Duncan Black on How Journamalists Report on the Clintons

Hoisted from Ten Years Ago: plus ca change, plus ca meme chose:

Duncan Black http://www.eschatonblog.com/2007_06_03_archive.html#8709637863335883566: "The ghost of Joseph Heller is channeled by Bernstein and O'Reilly to reflect 15 years of reporting on the Clintons...

...O'REILLY: Did she break the law? BERNSTEIN: Yes. O'REILLY: OK. Good, I like this. How did she break the law? BERNSTEIN: She broke the law if, indeed, she perjured herself. O'REILLY: Well, you just said she did break the law. BERNSTEIN: No. The special prosecutor determined that she did not. So he did not file the charge. O'REILLY: So you think she did. But the special prosecutor, Ken Starr, said no. BERNSTEIN: That is correct. You know what? Let me be really straightforward. I don't think she broke the law. I think there was a time that she did not tell the truth. O'REILLY: Under oath? BERNSTEIN: You know, I wasn't in the room.


Ten Years Ago on Grasping Reality: June 6, 2017—Including the "What I Miss About Ronald Reagan" Post

Four Posts, One Worth Highlighting—the "What I Miss About Ronald Reagan" Post:

  1. 29 Links for 2007-06-07 http://www.bradford-delong.com/2007/06/links_for_20070_5.html:
  2. Google Blogsearch Is in Trouble http://www.bradford-delong.com/2007/06/google_blogsear.html: Ten out of fifteen results today for "Brad DeLong" are spam blogs.
  3. We Do Have a Better Press Corps--It's Just Not Evenly Distributed (Jon Carroll Quotes Jay Rosen Edition) http://www.bradford-delong.com/2007/06/we_do_have_a_be.html: The alternative--the better--master narratives [than the horse race] are "which of these policy proposals would be best for the country?" and "what did we learn today about whether so-and-so would make a good or a bad president?" These are the organizing frameworks of the intellectual communities I see in my day job. And it is the journamalists' impatience with--and in many cases contempt for--these frameworks that is, I think, the reason that I can bond with anyone who has ever worked in government in less than five minutes by saying, "Let me tell you my worst press-interaction story..." They'll then respond with theirs, and we're best friends for life.
  4. Was There Ever a Politician Like Ronald Reagan? http://www.bradford-delong.com/2007/06/was_there_ever_.html: Oliver Willis misses Ronnie: "Anyone in this Republican field who will protect us from aliens the way that conservative ubergod Ronald Reagan would? I think not."

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Ten Years Ago at Grasping Reality: June 5, 2007


Monday Smackdown: Der Spiegel: Donald Trump's Triump of the Stupidity

Monday Smackdown: Der Spiegel: Trump Pulls out of Climate Deal, Western Rift Deepens: "Donald Trump's Triumph of the Stupidity... http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/trump-pulls-out-of-climate-deal-western-rift-deepens-a-1150486.html

...German Chancellor Angela Merkel and other G-7 leaders did all they could to convince Trump to remain part of the Paris Agreement. But he didn't listen. Instead, he evoked deep-seated nationalism and plunged the West into a conflict deeper than any since World War II.

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