Grasping Reality on TypePad, by Brad DeLong

Should-Reads:

• Doruk Cengiz, Arindrajit Dube, Attila Lindner, and Ben Zipperer>: The effect of minimum wages on the total number of jobs: Evidence from the United States using a bunching estimator: "We estimate the total impact of the minimum wage on a ected employment by comparing the excess number of jobs just above the new minimum wage... http://www.sole-jole.org/17722.pdf
• Martin Sandbu: The minimum wage wars are heating up: "The best thing Seattle could do now is to push ahead with its full experiment... https://www.ft.com/content/365f7e10-5d72-11e7-b553-e2df1b0c3220
• Steve Jobs (2007): Introducing iPhone
• Sarah Kliff: On Twitter: "A stunning pair of charts of the CBO report from my colleague @alv9n https://t.co/nZHz8OMurV" https://twitter.com/sarahkliff/status/879460806198538241
• Atul Gewande: How the Senate’s Health-Care Bill Threatens the Nation's Health: "The Senate bill would also ultimately make people who buy insurance on the A.C.A. exchanges—people without coverage from an employer or from Medicaid—pay far more money for far worse coverage... http://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/how-senates-health-care-bill-threatens-nations-health
• Erica Grieder: The GOP's 'Better Care' act is better than you think: "While the Affordable Care Act has surely helped millions of Americans... http://theweek.com/articles/707712/gops-better-care-act-better-than-think
• Scott Lemieux: Hacktacular!: "The New York Times has given op-ed space to Avik Roy, so he can prove that you can’t spell 'reformicon' without 'con'... http://www.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com/2017/06/hacktacular-30
• Scott Lemieux: No Vote on TrumpCare In June: "This really is important... http://www.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com/2017/06/no-vote-trumpcare-june
• Ben Zipperer and John Schmitt: The “high road” Seattle labor market and the effects of the minimum wage increase: Data limitations and methodological problems bias new analysis of Seattle’s minimum wage increase: "Jardim et al. (2017), looks at the first two stages of a phased-in set of increases that will eventually take the minimum wage in the city to $15.00 per hour... http://www.epi.org/publication/the-high-road-seattle-labor-market-and-the-effects-of-the-minimum-wage-increase-data-limitations-and-methodological-problems-bias-new-analysis-of-seattles-minimum-wage-incr/
• David Brooks: The G.O.P. Rejects Conservatism: ""There is a structural flaw in modern capitalism... [a] gigantic trend [that] widens inequality, exacerbates social segmentation, fuels distrust and led to Donald Trump... https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/27/opinion/the-gop-rejects-conservatism.html
• Lane Kenworthy and Ive Marx: In-Work Poverty in the United States: "In-work poverty became a prominent policy issue in the United States... http://ftp.iza.org/dp10638.pdf
• Diane Coyle: Economics in Transition: The End of Theory: "There has been a huge shift away from the reductionism of an older generation... to which Bookstaber has paid little attention... https://www.project-syndicate.org/onpoint/economics-in-transition-by-diane-coyle-2017-06
• Larry Summers: Globalization Will Work If We Stop Catering To The Elite: "A wage subsidy works like this... http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/globalization-larry-summers_us_594b0440e4b0312cfb616164
• Richard Peach and Charles Steindel: Low Productivity Growth: The Capital Formation Link: "Capital intensity... reflect[s] the effect of current and past physical investment on the growth of labor productivity... http://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2017/06/low-productivity-growth-the-capital-formation-link.html

Links:

• John Gruber (2007): Daring Fireball: iPhone First Impressions https://daringfireball.net/2007/06/iphone_first_impressions
• Julia Belluz: California decided it was tired of women bleeding to death in childbirth https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2017/6/29/15830970/women-health-care-maternal-mortality-rate
• Maria Demertzis: Raising the inflation target: a question of robustness | Bruegel: "In an unexpected move, the Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellet has recently brought up the issue of raising the inflation target. This blog argues that an increase in inflation targets may prove to be beneficial in achieving price stability in the long run. This would increase the credibility of central banks in achieving inflation goals and stave off the distortionary effects of deflation..." http://bruegel.org/2017/06/raising-the-inflation-target-a-question-of-robustness/
• DataCamp: Python for Data Science Cheat Sheet http://delong.typepad.com/pythonfordatascience.pdf
• Prakash Loungani: Cross-Country Spillovers of Fiscal Consolidations in the Euro Area http://unassumingeconomist.com/2017/06/cross-country-spillovers-of-fiscal-consolidations-in-the-euro-area/
• Daniel R. Carroll and Nick Hoffman: New Data on Wealth Mobility and Their Impact on Models of Inequality: "We find families have become less likely to change their position in the wealth distribution over time, and those that do move are less likely to go very far..." https://www.clevelandfed.org/en/newsroom-and-events/publications/economic-commentary/2017-economic-commentaries/ec-201709-new-data-on-wealth-mobility.aspx
• Marek Jarociński and Bartosz Maćkowiak: Research Bulletin No. 36 - Monetary-fiscal interactions and the euro area’s vulnerability: "In an economy with its own fiat currency, the monetary authority and the fiscal authority can ensure that public debt denominated in the national fiat currency is non-defaultable, i.e. maturing government bonds are convertible into currency at par..." https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/economic-research/resbull/2017/html/ecb.rb170629.en.html
• Kerem Cosar and Banu Demir: Containers and globalisation: "By how much would maritime trade be lower in the absence of ‘the box’?... How much additional increase in trade could we expect if further efficiency improvements lead to the full adoption of ‘the box’?The answer to the first question is “a lot”–current trade levels could decrease by about a third if container technology did not exist. For remote trade partners, gains from containerisation would reach 78%. The answer to the second question is “not much”–if containerisation became cheap enough to be preferred by all exporters, trade would increase by about 9%..." http://voxeu.org/article/containers-and-globalisation
• Benjamin D. Sommers, Atul A. Gawande, and Katherine Baicker: : "Whether enrollees benefit from that coverage is not one of the unanswered questions.... Arguing that health insurance coverage doesn’t improve health is simply inconsistent with the evidence..." http://www.nejm.org/doi/pdf/10.1056/NEJMsb1706645
• Ben Bernanke: : "Stagnant median wages, limited upward mobility, social dysfunction, and political alienation.... How did it happen?.... At a fifty-thousand-foot level, they appear to be the product of some broad global developments of the postwar era, together with the U.S. policy response (or lack thereof)..." https://www.ecbforum.eu/uploads/originals/2017/speakers/Speech/Bernanke%20ECB.pdf
• Joe Ryan: China Is About to Bury Elon Musk in Batteries - Bloomberg: "Factories are adding enough capacity to power the equivalent of nearly 1.5 million Model S vehicles..." https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-06-28/china-is-about-to-bury-elon-musk-in-batteries
• Fatih Guvenen*: Understanding Income Risk: New Insights from Big Data https://www.minneapolisfed.org/publications/the-region/understanding-income-risk-new-insights-from-big-data
• Andre Costopoulos: The academic journal is obsolete – ArcheoThoughts: "..." https://archeothoughts.wordpress.com/2017/06/28/the-academic-journal-is-obsolete/
• Stephen Buranyi: Is the staggeringly profitable business of scientific publishing bad for science?: "It is an industry like no other, with profit margins to rival Google–and it was created by one of Britain’s most notorious tycoons: Robert Maxwell..." https://www.theguardian.com/science/2017/jun/27/profitable-business-scientific-publishing-bad-for-science
• Ann Crawford-Roberts, Nichole Roxas, and Ichiro Kawachi: One estimate: 208,500 additional deaths could occur by 2026 under the Senate health plan: "One estimatete: 208,500 additional deaths could occur by 2026 under the Senate health plan..." https://www.vox.com/the-big-idea/2017/6/28/15881720/deaths-senate-health-care-bcra
• Michael Ollove: Medicaid Expansion Saves Money for States: "Medicaid expansion has given a budget boost to participating states, mostly by allowing them to use federal money instead of state dollars to care for pregnant women, inmates, and people with mental illness, disabilities, HIV/AIDS, and breast and cervical cancer..." http://www.pewtrusts.org/en/research-and-analysis/blogs/stateline/2015/4/29/states-find-savings-through-medicaid-expansion
• Jared Rubin: Rulers, Religion, and Riches http://assets.cambridge.org/97811070/36819/excerpt/9781107036819_excerpt.pdf
• Timothy Layton, Ellen Montz, and Thomas McGuire: The Downstream Consequences Of Per Capita Spending Caps In Medicaid http://healthaffairs.org/blog/2017/06/26/the-downstream-consequences-of-per-capita-spending-caps-in-medicaid/
• James Kwak: A New Economic Vision, in 27 Words: "So here it is, in 27 words: All people need a few basic things: An education, a job, a place to live, health care, a decent retirement. Let’s make sure everyone has these things. If you want more, there is always the long version..." https://baselinescenario.com/2017/06/28/a-new-economic-vision-in-27-words/
• Barry Eichengreen: Ragnar Nurkse and the international financial architecture https://www.eestipank.ee/en/publication/working-papers/2017/12017-barry-eichengreen-ragnar-nurkse-and-international-financial-architecture
• John Roemer (1985): Should Marxists Be Interested in Exploitation? http://delong.typepad.com/roemer-marxists-exploitation-1985.pdf
• Gary Dymski and John Elliott (1988): Should Anyone Be Interested In Exploitation? http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/00455091.1989.10716803?journalCode=rcjp20
• Bruce Campbell (2013): The Great Transition: Climate, Disease and Society in the 13th and 14th Centuries http://www.econsoc.hist.cam.ac.uk/podcast-campbell.html
• Eric Chaney: Medieval Origins: A Review Essay on Campbell’s The Great Transition https://scholar.harvard.edu/files/chaney/files/jel_campbell.pdf
• Nico Voigtlander and Hans-Joachim Voth (2013): Gifts of Mars: Warfare and Europe’s Early Rise to Riches https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/jep.27.4.165
• Nico Voigtlander and Hans-Joachim Voth (2013): How the West “Invented” Fertility Restriction https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=2&ved=0ahUKEwiuzIOcgd7UAhXBslQKHYkKDCAQFggsMAE&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.anderson.ucla.edu%2Ffaculty%2Fnico.v%2FResearch%2FEMP.pdf
• Nico Voigtlander and Hans-Joachim Voth (2013): The Three Horsemen of Riches: Plague, War, and Urbanization in Early Modern Europe http://www.anderson.ucla.edu/faculty/nico.v/Research/Horsemen.pdf
• Alan Blinder, Jamie Raskin, and Vin Weber: The lamppost theory: Why economic policy so often comes up short https://www.brookings.edu/events/the-lamppost-theory-why-economic-policy-so-often-comes-up-short/
• Heather Boushey: Equitable Growth in Conversation: David Weil http://equitablegrowth.org/labor-markets/equitable-growth-in-conversation-david-weil/
• Irving Kristol: American Conservatism 1945-1995 http://delong.typepad.com/pdf/20061226_Kristol_American_Conservatism.pdf
• James Fallows: Today's Whorfian Linguistic Blogging: Country Names in Chinese: "It's not bad that they [call themselves Zhongguo] 中国 ["central country"] as long as they keep calling us 美国 "beautiful country"... http://www.bradford-delong.com/2007/03/todays_whorfian.html
• Steve Muhlberger: Muhlberger's World History http://smuhlberger.blogspot.com/
• (2007): Your One-Stop Shop for All Your 70th Anniversary Leftist Sectarian Polemic Blogging Needs: In anticipation of the 70th anniversary of the bloody Stalinist suppression of the Partido Obrero de Unificación Marxista in the Barcelona May Days, we... bring... Eric Hobsbawm on George Orwell.... '[P]olemics about the civil war [within the Left]... have never ceased since 1939. This was not so while the war was still continuing.... The doubters remained silent... did not want to give aid to the enemies.... Orwell himself admitted after his return from Spain that "a number of people have said to me with varying degrees of frankness that one must not tell the truth about what is happening in Spain and the part played by the Communist Party because to do so would prejudice public opinion against the Spanish government and so aid Franco."... Only in the cold-war era did Orwell cease to be an awkward, marginal figure...' http://www.bradford-delong.com/2007/03/your_onestop_sh.html
• (2007): Your One-Stop Shop for All Your 70th Anniversary Leftist Sectarian Polemic Blogging Needs: In anticipation of the 70th anniversary of the bloody Stalinist suppression of the Partido Obrero de Unificación Marxista in the Barcelona May Days, we... bring... Stephen Schwartz, whose affection for Eric Hobsbawm is far smaller than mine: "Eric Hobsbawm... political and pseudo-intellectual legacy of Stalinism... banal but repellent rehash... long-discredited clichés... fundamental lie of Stalinist propaganda... contemptible exercise in pseudo-history.... The Spanish knew so many things that Hobsbawm will never know–and above all, they know that while Orwell’s methods might not have guaranteed the victory of the Spanish Republic, those of Stalin and his admirers assured its defeat..." http://www.bradford-delong.com/2007/03/your_onestop_sh.html
• "Comparative Advantage" by Nicholas Confessore https://web.archive.org/web/20021201170742/http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/features/2001/0212.confessore.html: "How economist Paul Krugman became the most important political columnist in America..."
• French Revolutionary Calendar http://www.windhorst.org/calendar/
• Four Links for 2007-06-25 http://www.bradford-delong.com/2007/06/links-for-200-4.html: Samuelson, P.A. (1971) "Understanding the Marxian Notion of Exploitation: A Summary of the So-Called Transformation Problem Between Marxian Values and Competitive Prices" Journal of Economic Literature 9 2 399–431...
• One Link for 2007-06-24 http://www.bradford-delong.com/2007/06/links-for-200-3.html: EBMUD East Bay Trails...
• Ten Links for 2007-06-23 http://www.bradford-delong.com/2007/06/links-for-200-2.html
• Michael Clemens on the Real Immigrant Underclass: "The People Who Wanted To Come, But Could Not" http://www.bradford-delong.com/2007/06/michael-clemens.html: Michael Clemens of the Center for Global Development, with a good rant, including bonus New Republic bashing...
• Richard Thaler: Slippery Slope Arguments Should Be Avoided Unless There Is Proof that the Slope Is Greased http://www.bradford-delong.com/2007/06/richard-thaler-.html
• Annals of Horticulture http://www.bradford-delong.com/2007/06/annals-of-horti.html: Air conditioners leak incredible amounts of moisture, even in arid climates like Tucson. This plant has found the one moist spot for acres around, and is responding appropriately...
• Wonders of the California Republican Party http://www.bradford-delong.com/2007/06/wonders-of-the-.html
• Jim Hamilton and Mark Zandi on Interest Rates http://www.bradford-delong.com/2007/06/jim-hamilton-an.html
• Why Oh Why Can't We Have a Better Press Corps? (The Hill Edition) http://www.bradford-delong.com/2007/06/why-oh-why-cant.html: Matthew Yglesias: (2007) "Carping: The Hill's Elana Shor on Barack Obama's earmarks..."
• The Evolution of Household Income Volatility http://www.bradford-delong.com/2007/06/the-evolution-o.html
• "Orthodox" and "Heterodox" Economics Once Again http://www.bradford-delong.com/2007/06/orthodox-and-he.html