Grasping Reality on TypePad, by Brad DeLong

Interesting Reads:

• XPostFactoid: "Not losing, choosing"?-Avik Roy turns up the gaslight on the BCRA http://xpostfactoid.blogspot.com/2017/07/not-losing-choosing-avik-roy-turns-up.html
• Tom Chivers: These People Are Trying To Fix A Huge Problem In Science https://www.buzzfeed.com/tomchivers/signifying-nothing
• Prakash Loungani: Inequality of Opportunity, Inequality of Income, and Long-term Growth: "From a new IMF report... 'a robust negative effect of widening income disparities on growth in presence of high inequality of opportunity'..." http://unassumingeconomist.com/2017/07/inequality-of-opportunity-inequality-of-income-and-long-term-growth/
• Adair Turner: Is Productivity Growth Becoming Irrelevant? https://www.ineteconomics.org/perspectives/blog/is-productivity-growth-becoming-irrelevant
• Justin Fox: Yes, Financial Crises Do Bring Hangovers - Bloomberg: "Can we blame our current struggles on the 2008 collapse and its subsequent fallout? We'd be wrong to discount it..." https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-07-20/yes-financial-crises-do-bring-hangovers
• Tierney Sneed: Inside The Chamber As The Senate’s Obamacare Repeal Plans Went South: "When lawmakers began shuffling into the Senate chamber... Republicans showed few signs that the effort they sunk months into wrangling was about to go down.... John Cornyn (R-TX) was all smiles..." http://talkingpointsmemo.com/dc/inside-the-chamber-obamacare-senate-vote
• Steve Attwell: I'm Back!: "Malignant tumor in my left leg... amputation above the knee.... When I heard Republican Congressmen talking about how only people who’ve led “good lives” deserved coverage for pre-existing conditions, I would scream at the monitor that the idea that health is tied to moral virtue is a medieval fantasy.... When the ACHA eliminated the Essential Health Plan I became one of the people whom the Republican caucus was out to kill..." http://www.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com/2017/07/im-back
• Andrew Prokop: Reince Priebus’s ouster as chief of staff, explained: "Priebus has been on the outs for a long time..." https://www.vox.com/2017/7/28/15724206/reince-priebus-fired-trump
• Zev Ross: Beautiful plotting in R: A ggplot2 cheatsheet http://zevross.com/blog/2014/08/04/beautiful-plotting-in-r-a-ggplot2-cheatsheet-3/#quicksetup-the-dataset
• Steve M.: DEATH IS THE ONLY THING THAT CAN PUT A DENT IN GOP PARTISANSHIP: "Why did [McCain] even need to think about this vote?... GOP health care proposals poll poll at 6% approval in Arizona.... The junior senator from Arizona, Jeff Flake—touted as a principled maverick in today's David Brooks column—dutifully voted yes, and also dutifully tried to wrest a yes vote from McCain.... Forty-nine Republicans voted yes on this massively unpopular bill..." http://nomoremister.blogspot.com/2017/07/death-is-only-thing-that-can-put-dent.html
• BondDad: The Bonddad Blog: Why John Taylor—a Leading Candidate to Replace Yellen—Shouldn't Be Fed Chair http://bonddad.blogspot.com/2017/01/why-john-taylor-leading-candidate-to.html
• Matthew Yglesias: Senate Republicans’ approach to health care is bizarre and appalling: "Nobody can tell exactly what Senate Republicans are doing with Americans’ health care, largely because they keep lying about it... https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/7/27/16040284/senate-republicans-health-care-lies
• Cardiff Garcia: When Keynes pondered Malthus https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2017/07/26/2191314/the-lessons-of-keynes-pondering-malthus/
• Sanjay K. Chugh: Modern Macroeconomics http://skchugh.com/teachingmanuscript.html
• Peter Ganong and Daniel W. Shoag: Why Has Regional Income Convergence in the U.S. Declined? http://papers.nber.org/tmp/53599-w23609.pdf: "A dramatic decline in... population flows to high-income places... coincid[ing] with a disproportionate increase in housing prices in high-income places, a divergence in the skill-specific returns to moving to high-income places, and a redirection of low-skill migration away from high-income places... a new panel measure of housing supply regulations, we demonstrate the importance of this channel in the data..."
• Kevin O'Rourke: Keynote: Globalization in the Aftermath of the Crisis http://www.imf.org/en/News/Seminars/Conferences/2017/06/21/globalization-in-the-aftermath-of-the-crisis-Kuala-Lumpur
• Chad P. Bown: Trade Policy and Supply Chains in a Low Growth World: Globalization in the Aftermath of the Crisis
• Corey Robin (2013): The Hayek-Pinochet Connection: A Second Reply to My Critics: "My response... should answer the 'So what? Who cares?' question and set to rest the notion that I was smearing an old man. If anything I let him off easy..." http://crookedtimber.org/2013/06/25/the-hayek-pinochet-connection-a-second-reply-to-my-critics/
• Jonathan Franklin (2001): Chilean army admits 120 thrown into sea: "Disclosure adds to dossier against defiant Pinochet..." https://www.theguardian.com/world/2001/jan/09/chile.pinochet
• Timothy J. Sturgeon, Peter Bøegh Nielsen, Greg Linden, Gary Gereffi, and Clair Brown: Direct Measurement of Global Value Chains: Collecting Product- and Firm-Level Statistics on Value Added and Business Function Outsourcing and Offshoring
• Seth Lloyd: : http://meche.mit.edu/sites/default/files/cv/slloyd_CV.pdf
• Leigh Ann Caldwell and Vaughn Hillard: Senate Considers 'Skinny' Repeal of Obamacare in Tuesday's Voting: "The plan... is for senators to... a 'skinny' repeal... eliminat[ing] Obamacare's individual mandate penalty, the employer mandate penalty, and the tax on medical devices.... The Senate would then go to conference.... Conferees would work out a final bill. Both chambers would then have to vote..." http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/senate-sets-sights-skinny-repeal-obamacare-tuesday-s-voting-n786296
• Orazio Attanasio, Christopher D. Carroll, and José-Víctor Ríos-Rull: SI 2017 Consumption: Micro to Macro http://papers.nber.org/sched/SI17EFACR

And Over Here:

• What Should We Be Ready to Do After the Next Nuclear Fire?... http://www.bradford-delong.com/2017/07/after-the-next-nuclear-fire.html
• Monday Smackdown: Republican Economists Burn Yet More of Their Reputations Department... http://www.bradford-delong.com/2017/07/monday-smackdown-republican-economists-burn-yet-more-of-their-reputations-department.html
• (Early) Monday Smackdown/Hoisted: John Cogan, Tobias Cwik, John Taylor, and Volker Wieland's Reputational Bet on Fiscal Policy Is Due, and They Are Bankrupt... http://www.bradford-delong.com/2017/07/early-monday-smackdownhoisted-john-cogan-tobias-cwik-john-taylor-and-volker-wielands-reputational-bet-on-fiscal-polic.html
• More on the Kaiping Mines: Hoisted from Ten Years Ago http://www.bradford-delong.com/2017/07/more-on-the-kaiping-mines-hoisted-from-ten-years-ago.html
• Battle Over Globalization http://www.bradford-delong.com/2017/07/battle-over-globalization.html
• Links for the Week of July 24, 2017 http://www.bradford-delong.com/2017/07/links-for-the-week-of-july-24-2017.html
• Monday Smackdown: Republican Economists Burn Yet More of Their Reputations Department... http://www.bradford-delong.com/2017/07/monday-smackdown-republican-economists-burn-yet-more-of-their-reputations-department.html
• Monday Smackdown: David Glasner on Friedrich von Hayek http://www.bradford-delong.com/2017/07/monday-smackdown-david-glasner-on-friedrich-von-hayek.html
• (Early) Monday Smackdown/Hoisted: John Cogan, Tobias Cwik, John Taylor, and Volker Wieland's Reputational Bet on Fiscal Policy Is Due, and They Are Bankrupt... http://www.bradford-delong.com/2017/07/early-monday-smackdownhoisted-john-cogan-tobias-cwik-john-taylor-and-volker-wielands-reputational-bet-on-fiscal-polic.html
• More on the Kaiping Mines: Hoisted from Ten Years Ago http://www.bradford-delong.com/2017/07/more-on-the-kaiping-mines-hoisted-from-ten-years-ago.html
• Ten Years and Four Days Ago at Grasping Reality: July 26, 2007 http://www.bradford-delong.com/2017/07/ten-years-and-four-days-ago-at-grasping-reality-july-26-2007.html
• Ten Years and Four Days Ago at Grasping Reality: July 22-25, 2007 http://www.bradford-delong.com/2017/07/ten-years-ago-at-grasping-reality-july-22-25-2017.html
• Comment of the Day: anjait: AVIK ROY TOLD A LOT OF LIES IN HIS VAIN ATTEMPT TO GET BCRA PASSED...: "Sure, because removing hundreds of billions from insurance programs and subsidies..." http://www.bradford-delong.com/2017/07/comment-of-the-day-sanjait-avik-roy-told-a-lot-of-lies-in-his-vain-attempt-to-get-bcra-passed-sure-because-removi.html
• Weekend Reading: Dean Acheson on that Triangulating Bastard Grover Cleveland http://www.bradford-delong.com/2017/07/weekend-reading-dean-acheson-on-that-triangulating-bastard-grover-cleveland.html
• Links for the Week of July 30, 2017 http://www.bradford-delong.com/2017/07/links-for-the-week-of-july-30-2017.html
• Live From California's Southland: Teresa Watanabe: UC IRVINE IS UNDER FIRE FOR RESCINDING 500 ADMISSION OFFERS TWO MONTHS BEFORE FALL TERM BEGINS: "Ashley Gonzalez's admission to UC Irvine was rescinded..." http://www.bradford-delong.com/2017/07/live-from-californias-southland-paging-janet-napolitano-is-there-any-reason-not-to-give-uc-irvine-a-new-and-very-dif.html
• Live from the Orange-Haired Baboon Cage: But, Donald, the question is: do you think John Kelly is a Dear Leader? Or a Brilliant Comrade?: Donald Trump: REINCE PRIEBUS PUSHED OUT AFTER ROCKY TENURE AS TRUMP CHIEF OF STAF: "I am pleased to inform you that I have just named General/Secretary John F Kelly as White House Chief of Staff..." http://www.bradford-delong.com/2017/07/live-from-the-orange-haired-baboon-cage-but-donald-the-question-is-do-you-think-john-kelly-is-a-dear-leader-or-a-bri.html
• Live from the Orange-Haired Baboon Cage: Josh Marshall: TAKING STOCK OF TRUMPCARE’S EPIC COLLAPSE – TALKING POINTS MEMO: "I had a very hard time believing the result would be what it turned out to be..." http://www.bradford-delong.com/2017/07/live-from-the-orange-haired-baboon-cage-josh-marshall-asks-for-theories-of-hero-mccain-i-have-three-1-after-10-years.html
• Live from the Journamalists' Self-Made Gehenna: "We did and are doing great work, and the Washington Post management is shutting us down": Max Ehrenfreund: WONKBOOK: THIS IS WONKBOOK'S FINAL ISSUE—FOR NOW: "This is the last issue of Wonkbook you'll see for a while, but we'll be back soon..." http://www.bradford-delong.com/2017/07/live-from-the-journamalists-self-made-gehenna-we-did-and-are-doing-great-work-and-the-_washington-post_-management-is.html
• Live from the Orange-Haired Baboon Cage: The twelve not completely crazy Republican senators... http://www.bradford-delong.com/2017/07/live-from-the-orange-haired-baboon-cage-the-twelve-not-completely-crazy-republican-senators-who-might-be-open-to-some-fo.html
• Live from the Journamalists' Self-Made Gehenna: Jeffrey Goldberg (2010): YES, YES, I KNOW I STARTED THE IRAQ WAR... http://www.bradford-delong.com/2017/07/live-from-the-journamalists-self-made-gehenna-apropos-of-gillian-white-emerson-collective-acquires-majority-stake.html
• Live from the Orange-Haired Baboon Cage: Should Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) leave office, who does Gov. Doug Ducey (R-AZ) appoint to fill his Senate seat until the 2016 election? And what does whoever Gov. Doug Ducey (R-AZ) appoints think of health care... http://www.bradford-delong.com/2017/07/live-from-the-orange-haired-baboon-cage-should-sen-john-mccain-r-az-leave-office-who-does-gov-doug-ducey-r-az-app.html
• Live from the Orange-Haired Baboon Cage: Ogged: UNFOGGED: "What drugs isn't the Mooch using?..." http://www.bradford-delong.com/2017/07/unfogged.html
• Live from the Orange-Haired Baboon Cage: Ryan Lizza: ANTHONY SCARAMUCCI CALLED ME TO UNLOAD ABOUT WHITE HOUSE LEAKERS, REINCE PRIEBUS, AND STEVE BANNON: "He started by threatening to fire the entire White House communications staff. It escalated from there..." http://www.bradford-delong.com/2017/07/live-from-the-orange-haired-baboon-cage-ryan-lizza-anthony-scaramucci-called-me-to-unload-about-white-house-leakers-re.html
• Live from Cyberspace: Metaphors for Programming Department: "Python νB Gandalf the Grey confronting unexpected behavior from a pandas.DataFrame..." http://www.bradford-delong.com/2017/07/live-from-cyberspace-metaphors-for-programming-department.html
• Live from the Misty Mountains: When one wishes that one had some fellow wizards to talk shop-issues through to help you think and understand, rather than a bunch of Hobbits and such. I've been there. I see you, Gandalf..." http://www.bradford-delong.com/2017/07/live-from-the-misty-mountains-when-one-wishes-that-one-had-some-fellow-wizards-to-talk-shop-issues-through-to-help-you.html
• Comment of the Day: HOW WOULD HEALTH-CARE REFORM AFFECT PATIENT HEALTH?... http://www.bradford-delong.com/2017/07/comment-of-the-day-how-would-health-care-reform-affect-patient-health-who-whom-john-donne-great-uncle-ernest-hemingwa.html
• Comment of the Day: JEC: HOW WOULD HEALTH-CARE REFORM AFFECT PATIENT HEALTH?: "I'd also point out that Marty is performing the 'null hypothesis bait-and-switch', which relies on nobody noticing that you've swapped the maintained and null hypotheses..." http://www.bradford-delong.com/2017/07/comment-of-the-day-jec-how-would-health-care-reform-affect-patient-health-id-also-point-out-that-marty-is-performin.html
• Comment of the Day:: Charles Steindel: MONDAY SMACKDOWN: REPUBLICAN ECONOMISTS BURN YET MORE OF THEIR REPUTATIONS DEPARTMENT...: "John F. Cogan, Glenn Hubbard, John B. Taylor, and Kevin Warsh... a very odd comment in their report..." http://www.bradford-delong.com/2017/07/comment-of-the-day-charles-steindel-monday-smackdown-republican-economists-burn-yet-more-of-their-reputations-departme.html
• Should-Read: Andy Slavitt: @ASLAVITT ON TWITTER: "Trump plans to sabotage the ACA this week..." http://www.bradford-delong.com/2017/07/should-read-andy-slavitt-aslavitt-on-twitter-trump-plans-to-sabotage-the-aca-this-week.html
• Must-Read: The smart and honest Simon Johnson likes the Trumpists' and Cogan, Hubbard, Taylor, and Warsh's 3%/year real national product fake forecasts even less than I do: Simon Johnson: TRUMP’S GROWTH CHARADE BY SIMON JOHNSON - PROJECT SYNDICATE: "Officials in President Donald Trump’s administration frequently talk about getting annual economic growth in the United States back above 3%..." http://www.bradford-delong.com/2017/07/must-read-the-smart-and-honest-simon-johnson-likes-the-trumpists-and-cogan-hubbard-taylor-and-warshs-3year-real-n.html
• Should-Read: Avik Roy told a lot of lies: Avik Roy: AN AUTOPSY OF THE GOP EFFORT TO REPEAL AND REPLACE OBAMACARE: "Moderate Republican senators, often representing purple or blue states, were reluctant both philosophically and politically to endorse legislation that increased the number of Americans without health insurance..." http://www.bradford-delong.com/2017/07/should-read-avik-roy-told-a-lot-of-lies-in-his-vain-attempt-to-get-bcra-passed-now-here-he-is-calling-for-the-corrupt.html
• Should-Read: Craig Garthwaite: WHY REPLACING OBAMACARE IS SO HARD: IT’S FUNDAMENTALLY CONSERVATIVE: "As a life-long Republican... I’ve come to an answer that will be hard for many conservatives to swallow..." http://www.bradford-delong.com/2017/07/should-read-craig-garthwaite-why-replacing-obamacare-is-so-hard-its-fundamentally-conservative-as-a-life-long-rep.html
• Should-Read: Antonio Fatas: ON TWITTER: "HEALTHCARE IS COMPLICATED but Greg Mankiw should criticize policy proposals that are incoherent or just lie about their benefits..." http://www.bradford-delong.com/2017/07/should-read-antonio-fatas-seems-annoyed-with-greg-mankiw-i-think-i-understand-where-antonio-is-coming-from-one-has-a-m.html
• Should-Read: Josh Barro: JOHN MCCAIN SAVED REPUBLICANS FROM THEMSELVES BY KILLING OBAMACARE REPEAL BILL: "Lindsey Graham made a demand: He would vote for the terrible healthcare bill being offered before the Senate, a bill he thought would cause health insurance market disaster..." http://www.bradford-delong.com/2017/07/should-read-josh-barro-john-mccain-saved-republicans-from-themselves-by-killing-obamacare-repeal-bill-lindsey-graham.html
• Should-Read: Simon Wren-Lewis: UK SLOWDOWN IS A RESULT OF BREXIT AND AUSTERITY: "Those who argued that Brexit would bring a short term slowdown have been proved right: they just got their timing slightly wrong..." http://www.bradford-delong.com/2017/07/should-read-simon-wren-lewis-uk-slowdown-is-a-result-of-brexit-and-austerity-those-who-argued-that-brexit-would-bring.html
• Should-Read: Martin Longman: A GLIMPSE BACK AT THE OLD SENATE: "Two stories I found last night while researching my Murkowski-Collins defection piece..." http://www.bradford-delong.com/2017/07/should-read-martin-longman-a-glimpse-back-at-the-old-senate-two-stories-i-found-last-night-while-researching-my-murko.html
• Must-Read: Neera Tanden and Tophir Spiro: THE BIPARTISAN WAY TO STRENGTHEN HEALTH CARE: "Provide greater certainty for insurers by guaranteeing continued payments of ACA subsidies, a step that could help reduce average premiums by as much as 19 percent..." http://www.bradford-delong.com/2017/07/must-read-a-good-way-forward-on-health-care-neera-tanden-and-tophir-spiro-the-bipartisan-way-to-strengthen-health.html
• Must-Read: Dylan Scott: THE OBAMACARE REPEAL DEBATE IS NOW A COMPLETELY BONKERS GAME OF CHICKEN: "On Thursday evening, mere hours before the Senate is supposed to vote on a health care bill, the United States Capitol is in chaos..." http://www.bradford-delong.com/2017/07/must-read-dylan-scott-the-obamacare-repeal-debate-is-now-a-completely-bonkers-game-of-chicken-on-thursday-evening-me.html
• Should-Read: Josh Marshall: TRUMPISM DISTILLED: "Scaramucci has managed to become a compressed, crystallized version of all the ridiculousness of Trumpism..." http://www.bradford-delong.com/2017/07/should-read-josh-marshall-trumpism-distilled-scaramucci-has-managed-to-become-a-compressed-crystallized-version-of-a.html
• Must-Read: Matthew Yglesias: SENATE REPUBLICANS’ APPROACH TO HEALTH CARE IS BIZARRE AND APPALLING: "Nobody can tell exactly what Senate Republicans are doing with Americans’ health care, largely because they keep lying about it..." http://www.bradford-delong.com/2017/07/must-read-matthew-yglesias-senate-republicans-approach-to-health-care-is-bizarre-and-appalling-nobody-can-tell-exa.html
• Should-Read: Mike Bird and Christopher Whittall: THE SPEECH THAT TRANSFORMED EUROPEAN MARKETS—FIVE YEARS LATER: "European Central Bank chief Mario Draghi.... 'Within our mandate, the ECB is ready to do whatever it takes to preserve the euro and believe me: It will be enough'..." http://www.bradford-delong.com/2017/07/should-read-mike-bird-and-christopher-whittall-the-speech-that-transformed-european-marketsfive-years-later-europ.html
• Must-Read: Martin Feldstein: HOW WOULD HEALTH-CARE REFORM AFFECT PATIENT HEALTH?: "People who qualify for Medicaid do receive substantially more care than those without formal insurance..." http://www.bradford-delong.com/2017/07/must-read-naughty-naughty-marty-you-know-better-you-say-patients-in-the-oregon-medicaid-study-show-no-signif.html
• Should-Read: This is not even sausage-making: this is taking an intestinal casing, putting nothing in it, and saying that you are going to add the meat by-products later: Leigh Ann Caldwell and Vaughn Hillard: SENATE CONSIDERS 'SKINNY' REPEAL OF OBAMACARE IN TUESDAY'S VOTING... http://www.bradford-delong.com/2017/07/should-read-this-is-not-even-sausage-making-this-is-taking-an-intestinal-casing-putting-nothing-in-it-and-saying-that.html
• Should-Read: Medicaid expansion vs. non-expansion and household financial adversity: Kenneth P. Brevoort, Daniel Grodzicki, and Martin Hackmann: MEDICAID AND FINANCIAL HEALTH... http://www.bradford-delong.com/2017/07/should-read-medicaid-expansion-vs-non-expansion-and-household-financial-adversity-kenneth-p-brevoort-daniel-grodz.html
• Should-Read: Joe Rago (2010): THE OBAMACARE CROSSROADS: "Once the health-care markets are put through Mr. Obama's de facto nationalization, costs will further explode..." http://www.bradford-delong.com/2017/07/should-read-_wall-street-journal_-editorial-writer-joe-rago-found-dead-in-his-apartment-i-am-very-sorry-for-him-and-his.html
• Should-Read: Jonathan Baker: MARKET POWER IN THE U.S. ECONOMY TODAY: "The U.S. economy has a 'market power' problem, notwithstanding our strong and extensive antitrust institutions..." http://www.bradford-delong.com/2017/07/should-read-jonathan-baker-market-power-in-the-us-economy-today-the-us-economy-has-a-market-power-problem-notw.html

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