Grasping Reality on TypePad, by Brad DeLong

Should-Reads:

• George W. Evans, Seppo Honkapohja, and Kaushik Mitra: Expectations, Stagnation and Fiscal Policy: "Persistent stagnation and fiscal policy are examined in a New Keynesian model with adaptive learning determining expectations... http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/research/Documents/conferences/conference03040717/expectationspolicy.pdf
• Mary Eschelbach Hansen and Nicolas L. Ziebarth: Credit Relationships and Business Bankruptcy during the Great Depression: "Stickiness makes relationships beneficial to borrowers in times of their own distress but makes them potentially problematic when lenders themselves face hardship... http://pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/pdfplus/10.1257/mac.20150218
• Simon Wren-Lewis: Japan and the burden of government debt: "There is currently a very good reason to write about the Japanese economy... https://mainlymacro.blogspot.co.uk/2017/08/japan-and-burden-of-government-debt.html
• Gin and Tacos: RESOURCE HARVESTING: "Before entering politics, it would be hard to imagine Donald Trump spending much time in places like Youngstown, OH or Huntington, WV... http://www.ginandtacos.com/2017/08/23/resource-harvesting/
• Jason del Rey: Amazon will lower Whole Foods prices right away and Prime members will get special discounts: "Amazon is wasting no time putting its stamp on Whole Foods... https://www.recode.net/2017/8/24/16198716/amazon-whole-foods-lower-prices-prime-discounts-benefits
• Neil Cummins: Lifespans of the European Elite, 800–1800: 115,650 European nobles from 800 to 1800... https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/journal-of-economic-history/article/lifespans-of-the-european-elite-8001800/BE252C4B25C4AAC29ED62D591A1675AC
• Neel Kashkari: Fed official: Businesses should raise wages before complaining of worker shortage: "Common refrain... we have jobs available, but simply can’t find qualified workers to fill them... http://www.businessinsider.com/fed-official-businesses-should-raise-wages-before-complaining-of-worker-shortage-2017-8
• Jacques Bughin and Eric Hazan: The new spring of artificial intelligence: "The Industrial Revolution was about machines enhancing human muscle power. The AI revolution is about machines enhancing human brain power... http://voxeu.org/article/new-spring-artificial-intelligence-few-early-economics
• Maurice Obstfeld, Jonathan D. Ostry, and Mahvash S. Qureshi: Trilemma redux: Evidence from emerging market economies: "The synchronous rise and fall of cross-border capital flows, domestic credit, and asset prices... http://voxeu.org/article/trilemma-redux-evidence-emerging-market-economies
• Matthew Yglesias: Steve Bannon’s “economic nationalism” is total nonsense: "'Economic nationalism' has grave flaws as an ideology beyond Trump’s racism, lack of policy knowledge, and personal indiscipline... https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/8/21/16165348/steve-bannon-economic-nationalism

Links:

• James C. Robinson, Christopher M. Whaley, and Timothy T. Brown: Association of Reference Pricing with Drug Selection and Spending: "Implementation of reference pricing was associated with a higher percentage of prescriptions that were filled for the lowest-priced reference drug within its therapeutic class..." http://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMsa1700087?query=featured_home&
• SPUR: Room for More: SPUR’s Housing Agenda for San Jose: "The Silicon Valley economic miracle has become a housing nightmare. We aren’t building enough housing for all the people who want to live here..." http://www.spur.org/sites/default/files/publications_pdfs/SPUR_Room_for_More.pdf
• Alan Downey: Probably Overthinking It http://allendowney.blogspot.com/
• • Tim Harford: Trump, Bannon and the lure of zero-sum thinking: "Attacking China, even metaphorically, will do nothing for America’s middle class..." https://www.ft.com/content/381f5888-88b0-11e7-bf50-e1c239b45787
• Larry Summers: Issues under discussion at Jackson Hole https://www.ft.com/content/0dc83a09-e4c4-3382-bc0f-8f19086115c0
• Brad Setser: Follow the Money https://www.cfr.org/blog/Setser
• Joe Romm: Rick Perry may have stumbled upon the solution to going 100 percent renewable: "Buried in his grid study is how electric cars and smart control systems will enable deep penetration of solar and wind energy..." https://thinkprogress.org/buried-in-perry-grid-study-is-solution-to-going-100-percent-renewable-d9e9b2512a2b/
• Simon Wren-Lewis: mainly macro: Medicine and the microfoundations hegemony in macroeconomics https://mainlymacro.blogspot.co.uk/2017/08/medicine-and-microfoundations-hegemony.html
• Adrian Pagan (2003): Report on modelling and forecasting at the Bank of England https://web.archive.org/web/20130829001408/http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Documents/news/2003/paganreport.pdf
• Karl Smith: Fixed Costs, Markups, and Market Concentration https://niskanencenter.org/blog/fixed-costs-markups-market-concentration/
• Matthew Yglesias: Trump’s big mistake on health care was not realizing Republicans were lying: "Donald Trump is wrong about a lot of things. But in his ongoing war of words with congressional Republicans, he’s right about one big thing—the failure of Affordable Care Act repeal efforts is fundamentally the failure of the Republican Party’s House and Senate leaders..." https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/8/25/16196824/trump-health-care-lies
• William Nordhaus: The Trump doctrine on international trade http://voxeu.org/article/trump-doctrine-international-trade-part-one
• Daniel Davies (2003): The War On (some kinds of) Theory: 2/15/the-war-on-some-kinds-of-theory/>: "Hang your head in shame, Brad DeLong, for the following piece of willful obscurantism and 'Bad Writing'..." http://crookedtimber.org/2003/12/15/the-war-on-some-kinds-of-theory/
• Zack Beauchamp: What Trump gets wrong about Confederate statues, in one chart: "Confederate monuments are and always have been monuments to white supremacy..." https://www.vox.com/identities/2017/8/15/16153220/trump-confederate-statues
• Brad DeLong (2003): Profits of Doom: "Let us now praise... the wild-eyed enthusiasts who begat the bubble-boom.... Investors lost their money. We now get to use all their stuff. What got built wasn't profitable, but a large chunk of it will be very useful..." https://www.wired.com/2003/04/profits-of-doom-2/
• Philippe Aghion, Antonin Bergeaud, Timo Boppart, Peter Klenow, and Huiyu Li: Missing growth: "Missing growth: How imputation and creative destruction affect TFP measurement.... The way output is measured is vital to assessing this, and quantifies the role of imputation in output measurement bias. By differentiating between truly ‘new’ and incumbent products, it finds missing growth in the US economy... [with] implications for optimal growth and inflation targeting policies..." http://voxeu.org/article/missing-growth
• Jeff Overley: Meet The 'Horse Whisperer' Of ACA Policy: "Timothy Jost, a mild-mannered, white-haired academic who had three decades of health law scholarship under his belt when ACA debate began in 2009..." https://www.law360.com/health/articles/955238/meet-the-horse-whisperer-of-aca-policy
• German Lopez: It sure looks like Trump’s Charlottesville talking points came straight from Fox News: "A video compares what Trump said to what Fox News said..." https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/8/16/16157454/trump-charlottesville-fox-news
• Noah Smith: 13 Ways to Strengthen America's Economy https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-08-17/13-ways-to-strengthen-america-s-economy
• Harold James: Interviewed by Beat Siegenthaler: "In your book The Euro and the Battle of Ideas you argue that 'typically French' and 'typically German' economic thinking are in fact not typical at all. Do national economic philosophies change over time?..." https://neo.ubs.com/shared/d1Wzrn6aJCyGEv/179c927c-3a9c-4568-a33c-9c2ab56991ba.pdf
• *Rachel Glennerster *: Not so small: "Work on pricing and health proves... demonstrates how impact evaluations can simultaneously answer questions of immediate practical importance for the partner in the evaluation... and help us understand underlying truths about human behavior..." http://runningres.com/blog/2016/5/27/not-so-small
• Dan Drezner: The Ideas Industry: "How Pessimists, Partisans, and Plutocrats Are Transforming the Marketplace of Ideas..." http://amzn.to/2x9anr1
• Jean-Fourastie.Org https://web.archive.org/web/20100209122609/http://www.jean-fourastie.org
• Gert‐Jan Hospers (2003): Fourastié’s foresight after 50 years http://www.emeraldinsight.com/doi/abs/10.1108/14636680310476221
• Wikipedia: Jean Fourastié https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jean_Fourasti%C3%A9
• Max Roser: Our World in Data https://ourworldindata.org
• Esteban Ortiz-Ospina and Max Roser: International Trade https://ourworldindata.org/international-trade
• John Cornford: Microcosmographia Academica: VII. Argument: "There is only one argument for doing something... that it is the right thing to do..."
• Richard Baldwin: The Great Convergence: Information Technology and the New Globalization http://amzn.to/2w0dlOy
• Paul Krugman: The China Shock and the Trump Shock https://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2016/12/25/the-china-shock-and-the-trump-shock/?_r=0
• NAFTA and other trade deals have not gutted American manufacturing https://www.vox.com/the-big-idea/2017/1/24/14363148/trade-deals-nafta-wto-china-job-loss-trump
• David H. Autor, David Dorn, and Gordon H. Hanson: The China Shock: Learning from Labor Market Adjustment to Large Changes in Trade: "Alongside the heralded consumer benefits of expanded trade are substantial adjustment costs and distributional consequences... in the local labor markets in which the industries exposed to foreign competition are concentrated. Adjustment in local labor markets is remarkably slow... at least a full decade..." http://www.nber.org/papers/w21906
• Economist: Economists argue about the impact of Chinese imports on America: "of the fall in manufacturing jobs between 1990 and 2007, one-quarter could be attributed to a surge in imports from China..." https://www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21718513-china-shock-has-not-been-debunked-it-worth-understanding
• Daron Acemoglu, David Autor, David Dorn, Gordon H. Hanson, and Brendan Price: Import Competition and the Great US Employment Sag of the 2000s https://economics.mit.edu/files/9811
• Wikipedia: California Proposition 13 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/California_Proposition_13_(1978)
• John Maynard Keynes (1936): The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money by John Maynard Keynes: "If effective demand is deficient... the individual enterpriser['s]... game of hazard which he plays is furnished with many zeros, so that the players as a whole will lose if they have the energy and hope to deal all the cards..." https://www.marxists.org/reference/subject/economics/keynes/general-theory/ch24.htm
• Jacob Levy: The Multiculturalism of Fear http://amzn.to/2x5zLhz
• Kevin O'Rourke: It has finally happened: "in August of this year, the inevitable happened: measured in terms of industrial output, our current recovery was overtaken by that of the interwar period. Pretty dismal stuff..." http://www.irisheconomy.ie/index.php/2015/11/29/it-has-finally-happened/
• Dan Drezner: White House aides can’t stop talking about President Trump like he’s a toddler: "The example has to be sourced from an ally of Trump.... The point is, this is how Trump’s most trusted advisers view Trump.... The example has to come from a mainstream media news source.... I have tried not to add echoes to a single story onto the thread..." https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/posteverything/wp/2017/08/21/the-trump-as-toddler-thread-explained-and-curated/
• David Byrne and Dan Sichel: The productivity slowdown is even more puzzling than you think: "While the available evidence on mismeasurement does not in fact provide an explanation for the [productivity] slowdown, innovation is much more rapid than would be inferred from official measures, and on-going gains in the digital economy make the productivity slowdown even more puzzling..." http://voxeu.org/article/productivity-slowdown-even-more-puzzling-you-think* Jacob Levy: The Multiculturalism of Fear http://amzn.to/2x5zLhz
• Kevin O'Rourke: It has finally happened: "in August of this year, the inevitable happened: measured in terms of industrial output, our current recovery was overtaken by that of the interwar period. Pretty dismal stuff..." http://www.irisheconomy.ie/index.php/2015/11/29/it-has-finally-happened/
• Dan Drezner: White House aides can’t stop talking about President Trump like he’s a toddler: "The example has to be sourced from an ally of Trump.... The point is, this is how Trump’s most trusted advisers view Trump.... The example has to come from a mainstream media news source.... I have tried not to add echoes to a single story onto the thread..." https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/posteverything/wp/2017/08/21/the-trump-as-toddler-thread-explained-and-curated/
• David Byrne and Dan Sichel: The productivity slowdown is even more puzzling than you think: "While the available evidence on mismeasurement does not in fact provide an explanation for the [productivity] slowdown, innovation is much more rapid than would be inferred from official measures, and on-going gains in the digital economy make the productivity slowdown even more puzzling..." http://voxeu.org/article/productivity-slowdown-even-more-puzzling-you-think