Should-Read: Jeffrey T. Denning: Born Under a Lucky Star: Financial Aid, College Completion, Labor Supply, and Credit Constraints: "Financial aid... effects on graduation can be driven either by marginal students induced to enroll by financial aid..." http://ftp.iza.org/dp10913.pdf
...or by inframarginal students who would have enrolled anyway but received additional financial aid. This paper identifies the effect of financial aid on inframarginal students... by examining a change in financial aid that did not change enrollment. I find that additional financial aid accelerates graduation for university seniors and increases persistence for sophomores and juniors... positively affect[s] educational outcomes...