David Valadao: Republican House Member Voting to Make His District and Constituents Poorer
Duncan Hunter: Republican House Member Voting to Make His District and Constituents Poorer

Devin Nunes: Republican House Member Voting to Make His District and Constituents Poorer

Nunes Tulare


District 22: Central Valley: 
Tulare—East Fresno

R+08: Safeness of Seat   
30%:  Percent of Returns   
5.5%: Percent of AGI   
$910 million SALT in 2014

288,000 tax returns in 2014
$16.627 billion AGI in 2014
$0.9124 billion deduction amount in 2014

49.6%: Income <$50K/year
22.5%: Poverty Rate
33.2%: White Collar
4.1% : Income >$200K/year

30% of tax returns in Devin Nunes's 22nd California Congressional District in 2014 would have been penalized had state and local tax payments been added into the federal income tax base. The total increase in the tax base in 2014 would have been 910 million dollars. We do not have sufficient detail to produce a precise estimate of how much taxes would have gone up—the Trump administration could, if it wanted to—but the rough ballpark number is 225 million: the Republican tax bill will, if enacted, take 225 million dollars a year out of the incomes and spending of Devin Nunes's constituents.

The relatively poor (for California) Central Valley 22rd contains only a small slice of people who are possible beneficiaries from the tax bill: 4.1% of returns in 2014 reported adjusted gross incomes greater than 200,000 dollars a year. But by the same token that was one-seventh of the number of returns that itemized SALT. While incomes, and thus state income taxes, and property taxes are lower in Bakersfield and its Central Valley surroundings than in highly-prosperous booming coastal California, adding people's state and local taxes to the federal income tax base would still take a substantial bite out of their budgets.

The Central Valley 22rd is a safe Republican district, even though now plurality Latino, thanks largely to the conservative political culture of Fresno. While highly enterprising and prosperous traditionally-Republican California upper middle class's concerns are not the Republican Party's core concerns any more, that does not seem to have mattered for Fresno.

With interests in intelligence and foreign affairs, Nunes had not put down deep K-Street lobbying roots in his 16 years in the House of Representatives. But he may believe that his district is safe enough that he can afford to do favors for the House leadership, especially a House leadership in which his friend and next-door neighbor Kevin McCarthy is second in command.

(Assuming, of course, there has not been a programming mistake in moving from zipcode-level IRS Statistics of Income to Congressional District level. Programming mistakes are easy to make.)

pdf version: http://delong.typepad.com/devin-nunes-republican-house-member-voting-to-make-his-district-and-constituents-poorer.pdf