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Duncan Hunter: Republican House Member Voting to Make His District and Constituents Poorer

Hunter Suburban San Diego

**DUNCAN HUNTER**

District 50: Inland San Diego: Escondido, 
El Cajon

R+11: Safeness of Seat   
37%:  Percent of Returns   
6.5%: Percent of AGI   
$1.34 billion SALT in 2014  

318,000 tax returns in 2014
$20.811 billion AGI in 2014
$1.3425 billion deduction amount in 2014

40.8%: Income <$50K/year
13.4%: Poverty Rate
31.6%: White Collar
5.6% : Income >$200K/year

37% of tax returns in Duncan Hunter's 50th California Congressional District in 2014 would have been penalized had state and local tax payments been added into the federal income tax base. The total increase in the tax base in 2014 would have been 1.34 billion dollars. We do not have sufficient detail to produce a precise estimate of how much taxes would have gone up—the Trump administration could, if it wanted to—but the rough ballpark number is 300 million: the Republican tax bill will, if enacted, take 300 million dollars a year out of the incomes and spending of Duncan Hunter's constituents.

As a relatively rich, suburban and exurban district in Greater San Diego, the 50th contains a noticeable slice of people who are possible beneficiaries from the tax bill: 5.6% of returns in 2014 reported adjusted gross incomes greater than 200,000 dollars a year. But by the same token that was less than one-fifth of the number of returns that itemized SALT.

The 50th is one of the safest Republican districts in the state. Duncan Hunter is the successor to his father, Duncan Hunter, in this seat. His father was in office for the years 1980-2008, rising to be Chair of the House Armed Services Committee. He thus has deep roots in the district, and seems unlikely to be the kind of person looking forward to spending the rest of his life in Washington DC.


(Assuming, of course, there has not been a programming mistake in moving from zipcode-level IRS Statistics of Income to Congressional District level. Programming mistakes are easy to make.)


pdf version: http://delong.typepad.com/duncan-hunter-republican-house-member-voting-to-make-his-district-and-constituents-poorer.pdf

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