Comment of the Day; Graydon: The Crazy Used to Be Split Between the Parties...: "That 'create a country of our own' step is the political system breaking...

...(Any political system rests on the acknowledgement by those participating on the level of policy that they're not going to get everything they want.)

It is entirely possible to read the progress of the political dissolution of the Union as the Union taking up through the first two years of the Civil War to realize that the slaveholders did in fact mean it; that they really did define "liberty" as "I get everything I want". It's also possible to read it as the existing political structure being so completely white supremacist that it was more or less incapable of addressing the structural problem; you can easily argue that this is true today. (Look at the basis of land tenure in US law, for instance.)

The Slavers got crushed on the battlefield; they won the political war that followed. (The US having been created to be white-supremacist, it's much easier to keep it that way than change it.) What we're seeing now is a Slaver takeover of the entire American federal system, kicked off by Civil Rights being perceived as an intolerable threat to Jim Crow. (Just because it's a horrible mindset, wasteful of everything, doesn't mean it isn't good at copying itself into the future. Copies in the future is the only thing that matters at an historical scale of consideration.)

I give it about even odds of sticking. (Very few white americans are willing to imagine themselves as something other than white, or recognize whiteness as a deliberate ethnogenesis rather than something inherent. "White" as a concept is most of the problem.) If it doesn't stick, it's going to take an act of ethnogenesis and a replacement for capitalism as the defining American behaviour pattern. Some of those are better than others.

I can't see how any of them are going to be fast enough. Ice-free Arctic Ocean around 2020 may not certainly mean "this is the decade agriculture breaks" but you can't rationally bet it's not...