Should-Read: LaMalfa, Hunter, McCarthy, and Calvert may well be the only Republican House members from California come 2019. Ed Royce is getting out of the way to become a lobbyist: Nate Cohn: @natecohn on Twitter: "Ed Royce is a really big retirement for the Democrats...

...Clinton won his district by 9 points; He won by 15 points, was still considered lean R by ratings folks. Not anymore. Unlike a lot of the Sun Belt districts, CA-39 isn't coming out of nowhere. Registration is ~R+1.5, Romney won it by 3. It's not a district where the GOP can just fall back on heavy Republican tradition. Royce was ready for the fight, too. Was raising plenty of money; had $3.5m in the bank at the end of the last quarter (though I guess that's not quite as intimidating as it usually would be, after Andy Thornburn gave his own campaign $2 million)...

California s 38th District


40% of tax returns in Ed Royce's District in 2014 would have been penalized had state and local tax payments been added into the federal income tax base. The total increase in the tax base in 2014 would have been 1.89 billion dollars. We do not have sufficient detail to produce a precise estimate of how much taxes would have gone up—the Trump administration could, if it wanted to—but the rough ballpark number is 600 million: the Republican tax bill will, if enacted, take 600 million dollars a year out of the incomes and spending of Ed Royce's constituents.

As a prosperous suburban district in Greater Los Angeles, the district contains a substantial slice of people who are possible beneficiaries from the tax bill: 9.6% of returns in 2014 reported adjusted gross incomes greater than 200,000 dollars a year. But by the same token that was less than one-fourth of the number of returns that itemized SALT.

In 1988, the Almanac of American Politics reports, Orange County was the strongest Republican county in the nation: Ronald Reagan's and before him Richard Nixon's base. But Orange County has changed over the years: the 39th is now plurality Latino. And, as noted above, the highly enterprising and prosperous traditionally-Republican California upper middle class's concerns are not the Republican Party's core concerns any more.

Ed Royce has now spent 26 years in Washington and in the House of Representatives. He is now out of sympathy with the pro-Russian foreign policy tilt of the Trump administration. But he has been in Washington now a long time, and the constituents he serves may now be primarily in the Washington foreign policy hawk and lobbyist community, rather than back here in California.

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