Simon Wren-Lewis: Brexit Endgame: second stage (which is unlikely to end with no deal): "A No Deal Brexit. It was inevitable that the EU would use this as a threat-that is the whole point of the A50 process...
...Rather less obvious is that the UK would do so as well: we have master tactician David Davis-this is going to hurt us more than you so you should be very afraid-to thank for that. But to be fair, appearing irrationally stupid enough to contemplate No Deal is about the only weapon the government has in its negotiations with the EU.... Stage one... was the break with the Brexiter hardliners to re-engage with the EU.... The second stage... [is] what Theresa May has to do to get over the March 2019 hurdle that sees the UK exit.... May’s primary interest is to get a deal.... Her secondary interest is in perpetual Brexit, by which I mean negotiations that continue to keep Brexit in the news so that a majority of Conservative MPs dare not allow an election for leader.... These interests tell us what May will try to do. Perpetual Brexit requires leaving most of the negotiation of what the final relationship will be with the EU until the transition period....
Brexit may get voted down because no one is happy with the form of Brexit we will get. Yet neither the government or parliament is able to say this is ridiculous and we should stop in now. Ostensibly this is because they feel they have to implement the ‘will of the people’. But this is so short sighted, because even the people who voted Leave will be unhappy with the Brexit they get when they see what it is. They voted, it should always be noted, for the “easiest trade deal in history” (Fox) where “we hold all the cards” (Gove). We now know better, but it seems our representative democracy is paralyzed by a vote for a fantasy.
#shouldread
