Nate Silver's Forecast Today Is That the California Republican Congressional Delegation Will Be Cut in Half This November...

2018 House Forecast FiveThirtyEight

I don't think that is good enough.

I think they ought lose more.

Of the fourteen California Republican representatives, eleven—Cook, McCarthy, Nunes, Calvert, Hunter, LaMalfa, Walters, Valadao, Denham, Royce, and Knight—all voted for the tax bill that targeted their core supporters—the prosperous largely-white upper middle class of California that carried Hoover, Nixon, and Reagan to the presidency—with a bullseye. That bill added their state and local taxes—money that their constituents never saw—into the federal tax base, and then taxed them not on the income they received but on money they never saw. Why? Because they are, now, working not for their constituents who have loyally supported them, but for the plutocrats who now fund them and the lobbyists whom they hope to work for in the future.

Mimi Walters' constituents alone are going to have one billion dollars a year taken out of their paychecks as a result of the SALT provision. This money comes out of the prosperous upper middle class of those who have been the backbone of the Republican Party and for whom America has worked very well. But they are of no longer any concern to Republican politicians—their donations are not needed because much more money is provided by plutocrats in these post-Citizens United days, and their votes are unlikely to swing elections to produce national-level senators or electors for the Republican Party.

Of those Republican incumbents running for reelection this year, only Tom McClintock and Dana Rohrbacher were willing to put their constituents above plutocrats and lobbyists in the vote last December. (Young Kim and Dianne Harkey are non-incumbents running in current Republican-held seats.) The rest have broken their contracts with their districts, their voters, and their supporters. Even if you thought they belonged in the House as of last November, you really cannot believe they belong in the House now. Four is the maximum number of Republican representatives the Republican voters of California ought to send to the House this November...

Candidates Running in Currently-Republican Seats:

Incumbents and Favored

  • Paul Cook/Tim Donnely 100/100 8
  • Kevin McCarthy 99/100 23
  • Devin Nunes 49/50 22
  • Ken Calvert 49/50 42
  • Duncan Hunter 11/12 50
  • Tom McClintock 7/8 4*
  • Doug LaMalfa 6/7 1


Non-Incumbents and Favored

  • Young Kim 2/3 (replacing Ed Royce) 39


Incumbents and Not Favored

  • Mimi Walters 3/7 45
  • David Valadao 3/8 21
  • Dana Rohrbacher 1/3 48*
  • Jeff Denham 2/7 10
  • Steve Knight 2/9 25


Non-Incumbents in Republican Seats Not Favored

  • Dianne Harkey 1/4 (replacing Darryl Issa) 49


  • Ed Royce (Fullerton) -- retired 39
  • Darrell Issa (Vista) -- retired 49

2018 House Forecast FiveThirtyEight