## Self-Locating Belief and the Sleeping Beauty Problem Once Again...

**Note to Self**: Apropos of the Sleeping Beauty Problem: **Adam Elga**: *Self-Locating Belief and the Sleeping Beauty Problem*...

There are three π here:

- π
_{1}: a parameter of nature that describes the probability that the coin, when tossed, will come up heads: π_{1}= 1/2 - π
_{2}: a number that Sleeping Beauty should keep in mind when deciding at what odds to bet that the coin came up heads if she wants to make money: π_{1}= 1/3 - π
_{3}: a number that Sleeping Beauty should tell a third party who asks her: "I'm going to make one and only one bet this week as to how this coin came out. What number should I have in mind in deciding at what odds to take heads if I want to make money?": π_{3}= 1/2

Which of these π_{1}, π_{2}, π_{3} is the "right" answer Sleeping Beauty should give?

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#shouldread
#cognitivescience
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