Adam Ozimek: The Main Story: We Aren't at Full-Employment Now: "The main story here is we aren't at full-employment now. And we sure as hell weren't at full employment in 2015, 2016, 2017 when so many leading economists said we were...
...Heard this same story, I think including from you, in 2017 when prime epop slowed in Q2/Q3. Then it jumped in Q4. You finance guys need more patience. If it makes you feel better, there will surely come a time when you are right since I'll wait until the data are pretty clear before calling full employment. That will be your moment to crow.
Forecasting is hard, and getting it wrong isn't a crime. So why the dunking? Dunking on people who got the labor market wrong would be 100% unnecessary if people revised their priors & models & owned up to the mistake. Has been close to zero of this, and so dunk we must.
#shouldread #monetarypolicy #labormarket