Fairly Recently: Must- and Should-Reads, and Writings... (November 7, 2018)

stacks and stacks of books

  1. I Want a FiveThirtyEight Post-Mortem! #politics

  2. The first news: FiveThirtyEight's forecast goes from H+36 S-1 to H+42 S+0...

  3. Was the Great Recession More Damaging Than the Great Depression?: Over at the Milken Review

  4. Note to Self: Yes the American right wing is strongly anti-semitic. Any questions?

  5. Weekend Reading: Keynes Quoting Malthus

  6. Weekend Reading: Jan Christian Smuts to M.C. Gillett: The Griqua prayer...


  1. Jiahua Che and Yingyi Qian: Insecure Property Rights and Government Ownership of Firms>: "The ownership of firms in an environment without secure property rights against state encroachment. 'Private ownership' leads to excessive revenue hiding, and 'state ownership' (i.e., national government ownership) fails to provide incentives for managers and local governments in a credible way.... 'Local government ownership'... may better serve the interests of the national government...

  2. Neel Kashkari: Pause Interest-Rate Hikes to Help the Labor Force Grow: "The Fed has raised the federal-funds rate eight times in the past three years, and inflation now stands right at the 2% goal. A hard inflation ceiling would justify pre-emptive rate increases to ensure inflation doesn’t climb any higher. But the symmetric objective gives the Federal Open Market Committee the flexibility to see how the economy evolves before determining if further rate increases are necessary. The FOMC should seize this opportunity for a pause...

  3. Ricardo Hausmann: The Venality of Evil: "Paul Samuelson once commended macroeconomics for having transformed 'the pre-war dinosaur into a post-war lizard'. The discovery of the mechanisms by which large economic fluctuations occur had led to an understanding of how to use fiscal and monetary policies, to tame, if not to prevent, crises such as the Great Depression...

  4. Seth Godin: Writing for People Who Don’t Read: "Right there, there’s your problem. I know you’d like to reach more people, and most people don’t read. But if you’re going to write, the only choice you have is to reach people who will choose to engage with you. Do it properly, and there’s a chance that those voluntarily literate people will tell their friends and colleagues...

  5. If you believe in the "plucking model", by which the economy when "plucked" into a state below normal employment by a negative shock then returns to normal, there is not strong reason to begin a recession watch until normal employment has resumed or has almost resumed. It has. So it is time to start a "what will cause the next recession?" watch. Tim Duy says: it will not be weakness in housing. I concur: the current weakness in housing is what the Federal Reserve wants to see, and is the intended effect of its raising interest rates—a little less employment in housing construction producing a little more room for higher employment in other sectors: Tim Duy: Decision Time: "Remember the recession calls in 2016 when manufacturing rolled over? The thinking was that every time industrial production falls by 2%, a recession followed, and this time would be no different. But it was different. Those calls did not play out because the shock was largely contained to that sector; recessions stems from shocks that hit the entire economy. And even if a recession could be boiled down to a single indicator, I would pick the yield curve over housing...

  6. I have never believed the critics of Whorfianism—those who claim that the language you speak does not shape what you see and how you think. Non-native speakers have a very hard time even hearing the native phonemes of a language, so how can their thoughts be unaffected? Linguistic sources of gender essentialism: Pamela Jakiela and Owen Ozier: Gendered Language: "At the cross-country level, this paper documents a robust negative relationship between the prevalence of gender languages and women’s labor force participation...

  7. James Cloyne: Taxes and Growth: New Narrative Evidence from Interwar Britain: James Cloyne, Nicholas Dimsdale, and Natacha Postel-Vinay: Taxes and Growth: New Narrative Evidence from Interwar Britain: "The impact of fiscal policy on economic activity is still a matter of great debate. And, ever since Keynes first commented on it, interwar Britain, 1918-1939, has remained a particularly contentious case, not least because of its high debt environment and turbulent business cycle...

  8. James Davis Nicoll: Sorry to Crush Your Dreams, But We’re Not Colonizing Space Anytime Soon: "Of course, the initial success of the Darien Scheme proves that you can attract investors by targeting rich idiots. Such schemes are most successful when they are intended to attract cash rather than deliver a shiny space colony. Just make sure to buy your ticket for a nation without extradition well in advance. And you may want hire bodyguards. Loyal bodyguards...

  9. Nathaniel Rakich: How To Watch The Midterms: An Hour-By-Hour Guide: "6 p.m.: Polls close in: most of Indiana, eastern Kentucky. As the first polls close, we’ll start to see results in two districts that could hold clues for how the rest of the night will unfold: the Kentucky 6th and Indiana 9th. The Kentucky 6th is rated1 as Toss-Up in the Classic version of our model. If Democratic challenger Amy McGrath is able to oust GOP Rep. Andy Barr, it will be an early sign of a Democratic wave, as the Kentucky 6th is about 10.5 points more Republican-leaning than the nation as a whole, according to FiveThirtyEight’s partisan lean metric. On the other hand, our model rates the Indiana 9th as Likely Republican, so if Democrat Liz Watson somehow pulls off an upset against Republican Rep. Trey Hollingsworth, it may point to a very long night for Republicans. The 6 p.m. poll-closing hour will also yield early returns in the Indiana U.S. Senate race, a seat that Democrats must hold in order to have any hope of capturing the Senate. Democratic Sen. Joe Donnelly currently has a 7 in 10 chance there... #politics

  10. Lyndon Johnson: "I can think of nothing more dangerous, more divisive, or more self-destructive than the effort to prey on what is called 'white backlash.' I thought it was a mistake to pump this issue up in the 1964 campaign, and I do not think it served the purpose of those who did. I think it is dangerous because it threatens to vest power in the hands of second-rate men whose only qualification is their ability to pander to other men's fears. I think it divides this nation at a very critical time—and therefore it weakens us as a united country... #politics #orangehairedbaboons #history

  11. And, of course, in 2016 three million more voters cast their votes for Democratic than for Republican Senate candidates. And the 2018 House vote went Democratic by 9.2 percentage point:: FiveThirtyEight: Significant Digits For Wednesday, November 7, 2018l: "Voters cast 44.7 million votes for Democratic Senate candidates and 32.9 million votes for Republican Senate candidates... 57 percent of Senate votes went for Democrats...

  12. Wikipedia: Beto O'Rourke

  13. Matthew Yglesias: Austin Can't Stay Weird: "One could go on and on about this stuff—bus lanes, a modest Inclusionary Zoning requirement, etc.—but the details aren’t especially different from what I’d say about anything else. The key point is that the mentality would have to be, 'Hey, Austin is really great, and so a lot of people want to live here or locate businesses here. We should build lots of houses and office buildings and transportation infrastructure and schools to accommodate them...' #nimbyism


 #shouldread #weblogging

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