Five-Thirty-Eight: Geoffrey Skelley: House Update: Keeping An Eye On Democratic ‘Reach’ Districts: "the battleground for the House is quite large: In the Classic version of our House forecast, there are 111 districts where both parties have at least a 5 percent chance of winning, as of 8 p.m. Eastern on Nov. 3. But Republicans are defending most of these districts — 102 of them, in fact. So one possibility on Election Day is that Democrats end up winning a few “reach” districts (in which their odds of winning are greater than 5 percent but less than 35 percent). Under those conditions, Democrats are underdogs in 63 of the 102 districts Republicans are defending...
Geoffrey Skelley: Democrats Have A Chance To Win One Of The Reddest Districts In The Country: "West Virginia’s 3rd.... President Trump won the 3rd District, anchored by Huntington, by 49 percentage points, and the district’s FiveThirtyEight partisan lean1 is R+37.... Yet the election prognosticators have tagged the race as “Lean Republican” or even a “Toss-up,” and nonpartisan polls have found mixed results since the May primary.... It’s an open seat held by the presidential party... the cross-party appeal of state Sen. Richard Ojeda, the Democratic nominee, and his in-your-face populism. We know Ojeda could be a real threat because he won his state Senate district 59 percent to 41 percent in 2016, even as it backed Trump 78 percent to 19 percent.... FiveThirtyEight’s House forecast currently gives Ojeda’s GOP opponent, state Delegate Carol Miller, around a 9 in 10 chance of winning—making West Virginia’s 3rd one of the districts where our forecast most disagrees with election handicappers...
Nathaniel Rakich: Six Districts The GOP Appears To Have Abandoned—And Maybe Two More It Should : "... >...National Republicans have begun pulling their resources... because party elders believe the seat is already lost. But parties don’t always show the best judgment about these things, so we thought we would compare the seats that Republicans have given up on with the seats most likely to flip to Democrats in our model. And what we found was that Republicans are indeed picking their battles wisely.... Daily Kos Elections... six Republican-held districts that both the National Republican Congressional Committee and the Congressional Leadership Fund1 have opted out of... CA-49, IA-1, NJ-2, PA-5, PA-6th and PA-17.... The eight Republican-held districts that our model says are most likely to fall to Democrats... PA-5, PA-6, NJ-2, IA-1, PA-7, AZ-2, CA-49, PA-17.... Our model generally agrees with top Republicans’ assessments.... Two of the eight districts in our table aren’t on the Daily Kos list... AZ-2... and the PA-7... (another redrawn seat) are strong Democratic bets by our calculations—even stronger than the CA-49 and PA-17...
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