Nathaniel Rakich: How To Watch The Midterms: An Hour-By-Hour Guide: "6 p.m.: Polls close in: most of Indiana, eastern Kentucky. As the first polls close, we’ll start to see results in two districts that could hold clues for how the rest of the night will unfold: the Kentucky 6th and Indiana 9th. The Kentucky 6th is rated1 as Toss-Up in the Classic version of our model. If Democratic challenger Amy McGrath is able to oust GOP Rep. Andy Barr, it will be an early sign of a Democratic wave, as the Kentucky 6th is about 10.5 points more Republican-leaning than the nation as a whole, according to FiveThirtyEight’s partisan lean metric. On the other hand, our model rates the Indiana 9th as Likely Republican, so if Democrat Liz Watson somehow pulls off an upset against Republican Rep. Trey Hollingsworth, it may point to a very long night for Republicans. The 6 p.m. poll-closing hour will also yield early returns in the Indiana U.S. Senate race, a seat that Democrats must hold in order to have any hope of capturing the Senate. Democratic Sen. Joe Donnelly currently has a 7 in 10 chance there...
...7 p.m.: Polls close in: most of Florida, Georgia, the rest of Indiana, the rest of Kentucky, most towns in New Hampshire, South Carolina, Vermont, Virginia: Florida and Georgia are hosting two of the most interesting gubernatorial campaigns.... In the House, we’ll see results from districts like the Florida 27th and Virginia 10th, both of which look like easy pickup opportunities for Democrats. But if Republicans hold on to these seats, that may mean they have a shot at hanging on to the House. There are also several toss-up districts at stake, like the Florida 26th and Virginia 5th....
7:30 p.m.: Polls close in: North Carolina, Ohio, West Virginia.... North Carolina and Ohio are two states where a blue tsunami could break open the Republican firewall; if that happens, look for likely-but-not-safe Republican districts like the North Carolina 2nd and Ohio 1st to fall.... By this point, we should hopefully be able to see a pattern emerging in the Senate.....
8 p.m.: Polls close in: Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, the rest of Florida, Illinois, most of Kansas, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, most of Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, the rest of New Hampshire, New Jersey, some counties in North Dakota, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, eastern South Dakota, most of Texas, Tennessee. If you manage to keep track of everything up to this point on election night, this is where it will all go to pot.... The Senate could also be decided in this time block, with three of the four likeliest tipping-point states reporting results starting at 8 p.m. Two of the most vulnerable Democratic Senate incumbents, according to our model, reside in Missouri and North Dakota.... Finally, the gubernatorial-results dam will break, too: Connecticut, Illinois, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, New Hampshire, Oklahoma and South Dakota are all potentially in play, although in every state but Kansas, our model has identified a clear favorite....
9 p.m.: Polls close in: Arizona, Colorado, Louisiana, the rest of Kansas, the rest of Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Mexico, New York, the rest of North Dakota, the rest of South Dakota, the rest of Texas, Wisconsin, Wyoming: My guess is that this is the hour when we’ll know if Democrats will win the House (or at the very least, if they’re on track to do so). Returns from districts like the Arizona 2nd, Colorado 6th, Minnesota 2nd and Minnesota 3rd will answer the question of whether Democrats were able to close the deal in their easiest pickup opportunities.... For the Senate, all eyes will be on Arizona, where Rep. Kyrsten Sinema has a 3 in 5 chance of picking up a seat for Democrats....
10 p.m.: Polls close in: southern Idaho, Iowa, Montana, Nevada, part of one county in Oregon, Utah. The battle for the Senate should conclude in the 10 p.m. hour as results from the last of the competitive Senate races come in....
11 p.m.: Polls close in: California, Hawaii, the rest of Idaho, the rest of Oregon, Washington. Other than a potential Republican upset of Gov. Kate Brown in Oregon, the focus in these states will be entirely on the House. Even if control of the House is decided without them, it will still be important to watch districts like the California 39th and 45th as test cases for whether well-heeled Republicans will vote for someone with a “D” next to their name...
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