No. The Fed Was Wrong to Raise Interest Rates

Fairly Recently: Must- and Should-Reads, and Writings... (December 26, 2018)


  1. We Are with Her!:

  2. No. The Fed Was Wrong to Raise Interest Rates

  3. Comment of the Day: Ebenezer Scrooge: "If I were in an unusually forgiving mood, I would say that many on the list are financial economists, not macroeconomists. Non-Dunning-Krueger people are stupidest when opining on a field near, but not precisely with, their own expertise. (xkcd's 'Physicists' cartoon is particularly on point.) But I'm not in an unusually forgiving mood...

  1. Brandi Neal: Illustrator Tyler Feder's ‘Work-From-Home Fashions’ Cartoon Is Relatable AF

  2. I'm bad, and that's good. I will never be good, and that's not bad. There's no one I'd rather be than me...

  3. Legal Information Institute: Sutherland: Humphrey's Executor: "When Congress provides for the appointment of officers whose functions, like those of the Federal Trade Commissioners, are of Legislative and judicial quality, rather than executive, and limits the grounds upon which they may be removed from office, the President has no constitutional power to remove them for reasons other than those so specified. Myers v. United States, 272 U.S. 52, limited, and expressions in that opinion in part disapproved...

  4. Christina's Cucina: Cranachan, A Lovely Scottish Dessert

  5. Google: Search operators you can use with Gmail

  6. Richard Feynman: Fire Is Stored Sunshine

  7. James Dean: Black and White Spanish Castle in Color Illusion

  8. Since 2007 growth in the Global North has totally cratered. Thus if you run convergence regressions for which the past decade is a considerable share of the sample, you find unconditional convergence. Why? Because the Global North has had a horrendous business cycle. The Global North is was initially rich. And the computer is smart enough to use initial wealth as an indicator that cyclical performance since 2008 has been abysmal. But for any regressions starting before 1990 even when they include 2008-2018 (and much more so when they do not), the divergence up until 2008 is larger than the convergence induced by the post-2007 cratering of the Global North. The big fact for the entire period since World War II remains: Divergence, Bigtime—at least when observations are countries. It's not "everything you know about cross-country convergence is (now) wrong". Estimated β over the entire period since 1960 is still -0.2. It's "catastrophic policy failure in the Global North since 2008". (Of course, if your unit of observation is people rather than nations, that China & India have done very well and have 2.3 billion matters a lot): Dietz Vollrath: New Evidence on Convergence: "Dev Patel, Justin Sandefur, and Arvind Subramanian posted the other day some new evidence on cross-country convergence... poor countries grow faster than rich ones, on average... #economicgrowth #convergence #divergence

  9. Sandy Darity (2016): The Latino Flight to Whiteness: "...Hispanics collectively are unlikely to share common cause with black Americans over a common racial identity.... If a coalition ever forms... it will not be on the basis of linked fate or fictive kinship anchored on race...

  10. Paul Krugman: The Ghost of Trump Chaos Future: "None of Individual-1’s tantrums, unpresidential as they are, have much direct economic impact.... Even trade war might not do that much harm.... The really big economic risk was that Trump might break up Nafta, the North American trade agreement: U.S. manufacturing is so deeply integrated with production in Canada and Mexico that this would have been highly disruptive. But he settled for changing the agreement’s name while leaving its structure basically intact, and the remaining risks don’t seem that large.... [But] it’s not so much what Trump is doing, as what he might do in the future — or, perhaps even more important, what he might not do... #orangehairedbaboons

  11. Starting from where we are now, I think that the best outcome is: (a) Trump tries to fire Powell, and (b) the Supreme Court immediately slaps him down 9-0, affirming Humphrey's Executor: Tim Duy: Markets In Crisis: Trump Has Damaged the Fed: "We are now well into uncharted and dangerous territory. It is not obvious that the government has the capacity to respond effectively to a financial crisis. That means that the Fed would have to shoulder an even greater role than in the last crisis. But now, the Fed may be less effective because of the damage inflicted by Trump...#orangehairedbaboons #monetaryopolicy

  12. Jon Schwarz: The 10 Most Awful Articles in the Weekly Standard’s Short Life VI: "'Campus Disrupter' by Naomi Schaefer Riley, 2018. It’s hard to remember in the age of Trump, but conservatives used to be fixated on the fear that American universities were no longer teaching the classics of Western civilization. This article is one of several of this type published by the Weekly Standard. Whatever the merits of the Western classics, read this from Book II, Chapter XXXI of Machiavelli’s “Discourses on Livy.” Then think about the Iraq War and ask yourself whether William Kristol, who has a Harvard Ph.D. in government, has ever actually read these old books.... 'A Prince, therefore, ought to go slowly in undertaking an enterprise upon the representations of an exile, for most of the times he will be left either with shame or very grave injury'...#journamalism #orangehairedbaboons #moralresponsibility

  13. Jon Schwarz: The 10 Most Awful Articles in the Weekly Standard’s Short Life VII: "'Are Syria’s Chemical Weapons Iraq’s Missing WMD? Obama’s Director of Intelligence Thought So' by Mark Hemingway, 2017: It was inevitable that someone on the right would be stupid enough to write this, and the Weekly Standard would be the magazine stupid enough to publish it.... The CIA spent $1 billion investigating Iraq’s WMD programs, and found no evidence this happened... #journamalism #orangehairedbaboons #moralresponsibility