How Powell May Approach Regulation: Bloomberg Daybreak Asia 2017-12-01: Hoisted from the Archives

Fairly Recently: Must- and Should-Reads, and Writings... (December 6, 2018)

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  1. The Business-Cycle History of the Past Thirty Years Through the Lens of Aggregate Demand: Four Components of Multiplier-Driving Spending

  2. Hoisted from the Archives: Margaret Thatcher Against Friedrich von Hayek's Pleas for a Lykourgan Dictatorship in Britain

  3. Hoisted from the Archives (December 20, 2010): : Can't Anybody in Obama's Inner Circle Play This Game?

  4. Hoisted from the Archives: How Powell May Approach Regulation: Bloomberg Daybreak Asia 2017-12-01:


  1. Unfogged continues to be an oasis of sanity: Heebie-Jeebie: Post-WASP Sad Feels: "I feel like I ought to post on that dumb-dumb Douthat op-ed where he's teary about WASPS of yore and misses that time they ruled the country, but it's so dull that I can't get through it... #orangehairedbaboons #journamalism

  2. Anna Snider: Just Released: Interactive R-star Charts: "With the arrival of Bank President John Williams... we’re now running—and sharing the output of—models he helped develop to obtain estimates of the natural rate of interest, or r-star, for the United States and other advanced economies... the real interest rate that allows an economy to expand in line with its underlying potential while keeping inflation stable.... We’re providing quarterly estimates of r-star and related variables on our public website in downloadable Excel files plus the replication code and documentation for both the Laubach-Williams ('LW') and Holston-Laubach-Williams ('HLW/) models... #monetarypolicy #monetaryeconomics

  3. Barry Ritholtz: How to Use Behavioral Finance in Asset Management, Part III: "The ugly truth: there is an enormous contingency of players who do not have your best interests at heart... expert at pushing the hot buttons hard-wired into you that is part of your evolutionary inheritance.... This is why we try to teach how to think... [to] see through the bullshit machinery.... Beta vs Alpha: Beta is cheap and easy, Alpha is expensive and hard.... People who create alpha are exceedingly rare; people who can identify them in advance are rarer still. Why should any of us assume we are in either camp? Understanding this gives investors the greatest probability of succeeding... #finance #cognitive

  4. A first-class rant this morning! Yes, the New York Times is a sinkhole of sloth and depravity. What else is new?: Yastreblyansky: It's the Stupid, Economy!: "Hi, it's Stupid to say that it's still the economy, whatever David Brooks may think: Shorter David Brooks, 'It's Not the Economy, Stupid'.... 'The US economy is the best ever, so if you're not happy there must be something wrong with you, like not going to church or getting married often enough. This explains why life expectancy has declined three years in a row for the first time since 1915-18. It's your fault'. Looks like he thinks the Republicans might lose the election two weeks ago, but only time will tell... #journamalism #equitablegrowth

  5. Charlie Warzel and Ryan Ma: Facebook’s Internal Tensions Are Spilling Beyond The Company’s Walls: "'It’s the bunker mentality. These people have been under siege for 600 days now. They’re getting tired, getting cranky—the only survival strategy is to quit or fully buy in.'... Internally, the conflict seems to have divided Facebook into three camps: those loyal to Zuckerberg and chief operating officer Sheryl Sandberg; those who see the current scandals as proof of a larger corporate meltdown; and a group who see the entire narrative—including the portrayal of the company’s hiring of communications consulting firm Definers Public Affairs—as examples of biased media attacks...

  6. Paul Krugman: "The funny part Kevin Hassett touted that slight blip upward in the first quarter as proof of tax-cut success.: "We've seen a plunge in foreign direct investment—that is, investment that involves control, rather than just being part of a portfolio. Also a plunge in US investment abroad, although that was an accounting reshuffle with little real meaning.... Kevin Hassett touted that slight blip upward in the first quarter as proof of tax-cut success; also failed to understand what the repatriation of earnings was about https://www.marketwatch.com/story/white-house-advisor-foreign-investment-is-skyrocketing-even-with-harley-davidsons-move-overseas-2018-06-26. Gotta say that Mr. Dow 36K doesn't disappoint. All of us are wrong sometimes, but he manages to be wrong every single time, about everything. Trump's kind of guy...

  7. Olivier Blanchard: The French "Yellow Vest" Movement and the (Current) Failure of Representative Democracy: "Go back to the end of communism and the failure of central planning as an alternative to the market economy.... With the end of communism, it became clear that there was no alternative, only a muddle between market intervention and free markets. So long as growth was strong, and all boats were indeed lifted, the problem was manageable. Then growth slowed down, and inequality and insecurity became more salient...

  8. Niskanen Center (December 11, 2018): Starting Over: The Center-Right After Trump: "Donald Trump has had a hurricane-like effect on the Republican Party. The 2018 midterm elections have forced center-right Americans to reconsider their relationship to the Trump-driven conservative populism that has come to dominate the GOP. The Niskanen Center will present an important public analysis of this new political reality... #politics

  9. Tom Nichols: "Counter-Intuitive Though It May Seem, Trump winning was a political disaster for the white working class, especially older whites. They were once pandered to in elections; now it's no longer possible to indulge the pretense that their concerns are economic-or fixable. That's because there's no ground for a policy fix or a compromise with people whose basic position is that they want America to be white, sorta Christian, and frozen in 1963-except with 2018's drugs, sexual liberty, government transfer payments, ESPN channels, and internet porn... #orangehairedbaboons

  10. Highly amusing. My complaint is that Brexit is hardly "Estalblishment"—it is, rather, counter-establishment, or ex-establishment. Maybe the connection is that Classics at Oxbridge is also ex-establishment. I think of PPE as establishment: Neville Morley: We Need To Talk About Classics: "The overall breakdown among MPs was 25% Leave, 75% Remain.... Those with degrees in... Classics... 6 out of 8 did (plus one who hasn’t disclosed how he voted)... #brexit #orangehairedbaboons

  11. Barry Ritholtz: Understanding Why You Think QE Didn't Work: "The right question isn't always what happened, but what might have happened in the absence of action...

  12. Julie Segal: Not One Ivy League Endowment Beat a Simple U.S. 60-40 Portfolio Over Ten Years: "A new report shows that the complex and expensive endowment model hasn’t proved its worth since the financial crisis: The performance of Ivy League endowments has trailed a passive portfolio of 60 percent U.S. stocks and 40 percent bonds over the past ten years—and has been more volatile to boot, according to a new report from research and analytics provider Markov Processes International...

  13. John Judis: The Key to Understanding America’s Red-Blue Split Isn’t Ideology or Culture. It’s Economics: "Those blue dots: Increasingly... large cities and the suburbs that surround them.... For two years, the main analytical lens for explaining the unshakable red-blue division in American politics has been culture and ideology.... Another lens, one that often gets short shrift... jobs. Red and blue America aren’t separated just by their cultural politics; they are separated by sharp differences in how their economies have developed over the past half-century. And those economic differences can, in turn, explain many of the cultural differences that so bedevil our political system...

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