Fall 2018—Smart Things I Wrote Here too Short to Be Highlighted Posts...
- How did "Evangelicals" miss the memo that God saves you later only if you save the image of God in your neighbor today?.... It's not the white working class who have been totally grifted by Trump—it's those who call themselves "Evangelicals":
Always remember that Andrew Sullivan glories in misleading the public by telling them lies: "The Krugmans and the Chaits will shortly have a cow, if not a whole herd of them.... To which my response is: Hoorah.... Commentators... get steamed because Bush has... claimed his tax cut will cost less than it actually will... is using Medicare surplus money today that will be needed tomorrow and beyond.... The fact that Bush has to obfuscate his real goals of reducing spending with the smoke screen of 'compassionate conservatism' shows how uphill the struggle is." When somebody tells you he is an evil, deceptive f---, believe him...
In any dystopian or failed state, why would you want to accept RogoffCoin? or DeLongCoin?... I can see BitCoin being worth a hundred dollars in the long run because having been first mover is a potential focal point. I can't see anything else having value in the long run. It is not "cryptocurrency coins" that are "lottery tickets that pay off in a dystopian future"; it is (maybe) BitCoin. After all, the South Sea Company had detected a true market opportunity—there would be durable demand for standardized Gilts. But, as Ken says, "the private sector may innovate, but in due time the government regulates and appropriates": the profits were reaped not by the South Sea Company or any of its competitors but by the British Treasury. In the meantime, of course, there are Greater Fools for Fools to sell to, and so folly has a chance of looking wise...
I used to think that the fact that the Senate is an institution that has lost its purpose and now gives rural residents grossly excessive and illegitimate political power was no biggie.... That their excessive political voice partially cushioned them from the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune was not the worst thing in the world. But that would require that they be rational and somewhat public-spirited actors—not the easily-grifted victims of racist neo-fascist clowns...
Monday Smackdown: Revisiting the Trump-McConnell-Ryan Tax Cut Debate: A year ago, during the Trump-McConnell-Ryan corporate tax cut debate, Greg Mankiw wrote that "a relevant exercise for my readers... [is assuming] the capital stock adjusts so that the after-tax marginal product of capital equals the exogenously given world interest rate r..." That was unprofessional. That is not a relevant model for a large country with a floating exchange rate...
Millennials may believe that America is hardly better than other countries—but they more strongly believe that America ought to be by far the best place on earth. Their view is not a rejection of American exceptionalism, but a doubling down on it. The second is also wrong—Trumpists think America needs to be exceptional, but exceptionally bad—call this "fascist exceptionalism". As for the third... Foreign-policy beltway bandits may talk about "containing China's global reach", but the failure to prioritize full recovery from the Great Recession and the election of the erratic Trump mean that that ship has sailed. China now confronts America as an equal, and cannot be "contained". And this end of the American century is due not to China's successes—mighty as they are—but to America's failures...
Philosopher Alex Rosenberg's actions are incomprehensible until you realize that he believes and desperately desires to convince us that there are no such thing as human beliefs or desires. Also: That Henry Kissinger is a bad man. You see the problem? The neurology level is useless if you want a better theory than the folk theory of mind. The behavioral economics level may be becoming useful. But for the life of me I do not see what Rosenberg has to add here...
My read of the evidence is somewhat different here: My view is that forward guidance did something, but quantitative easing did very, very little. And the idea that quantitative easing made forward guidance more credible? I do not see that. Yes, quantitative easing was a big deal for the financial professionals Who otherwise would have held the treasury bonds that the Federal Reserve bought. But I do not see any channels through which their attempt to compensate add large affects and the real economy of productions and demand...
Note to Self: I am once again teaching the origin of business cycles and "general gluts" via John Stuart Mill's 1829 "excess demand for money is excess supply of everything else", and in an economy of sticky prices, wages, and debts produces the recessions and depressions that we all know and love so well. It is a quick way to get into the subject. It is a convincing way. But is it a correct way? Smart people say: "no"!...
Stagnant Real Wages and Secular Stagnation Are Not Closely Related: DeLong FAQ: In a flexible-price full-employment economy, the... price level drop[s] instantaneously and discretely... to generate the extra inflation needed to get the market rate at the zero lower bound to its value needed for full employment...
American religion, at least white Protestant and Catholic religion, is overwhelmingly a self-righteousness multiplier—not an independent influence...
#highlighted
