Wolfgang Münchau: The Self-Fulfilling Prophecy of a No-Deal Brexit: "I believe that the probability of a no-deal Brexit is higher than you think. Much higher.... A no-deal Brexit is clearly not rational. But if you look at the incentives of each individual decision maker, you may find there are worse options than no deal for each one of them...
...For Mrs May, the very worst outcome would be to end up with no Brexit at all. For Mr Corbyn, a no-deal Brexit might be the best opportunity for an early general election. For Mr Varadkar, nothing would be more humiliating than to compromise on the backstop.... I see no realistic chance of the UK holding a second referendum. I am not convinced that parliamentarians have the gumption for it. It has been easy for them to hide behind the meaningless assertion of taking no deal off the table. But to actually do this, they will have to revoke Article 50, or agree to a deal they dislike. If they vote down the deal again on January 29, we would be mad to rule out a no-deal Brexit...
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