Wise words about how we think we understand things and underestimate uncertainty. What I am not clear about is whether modern tools of communications are truly a source of disruption, or whether it was just that from 1952 to 2007 all of the big surprises (e.g., fall of the Berlin Wall) were good ones: Charlie Stross: Someone Please Cancel 2019 Already?: "The event horizon in politics in a democracy is no more than... the maximum time between elections.... Consider Germany in January 1934, and how outlandish and dystopian the situation would have sounded if you'd described it to a German citizen in January 1929. (30% unemployment! A dictator and a state of emergency! Concentration camps! Anti-Jewish laws!)... The value proposition of democracy is that it provides for a peaceful transfer....But when you get a faction, party, or regime that no longer subscribes to the idea of democracy and refuses to back down gracefully, you get back the old problems... pressure for change builds up and when it erupts the effects can be devastating and unpleasant—especially, as we've had a crash-course reminder... when the tools of communication make it really easy for dangerous demagogues to draw a following...
