Would somebody please tell me what the Brexiters want?
Do they want to stay in the customs union? Do they want a hard border in the Irish Sea? Do they want a hard border within Ireland? What is Theresa May asking for? What are the "alternative arrangements to prevent a hard border with Northern Ireland" and yet allow the collection of customs and the exclusion of commodities that do not meet European standards that they seek?
14.5% of British GDP is exported to the EU. 3.5% of EU GDP is exported to Britain. Demonstrating that being in the EU is a good deal relative to other options is an important value for the EU. Evans-Pritchard never says—nor does he comment that the German economists whom he praises also call for the UK government to abandon its "red lines". What is Theresa May willing to give up that the EU values in order to secure the removal of the Irish Backstop?:
Ambrose Evans-Pritchard: German Anger Builds Over Dangerous Handling of Brexit by EU Ideologues: "A group of top German economists has told the EU to tear up the Irish backstop and ditch its ideological demands in Brexit talks, calling instead for a flexible Europe of concentric circles that preserves friendly ties with the UK.... The report implicitly rebuked the European Commission for mishandling its negotiations with Britain and for trying to use the legal advantage of the Article 50 process to dictate a harsh settlement, with little regard for long-term strategic and diplomatic interests...
...The report is led by Clemens Fuest and Gabriel Felbermayr from the Ifo in Munich but includes the chairmen of the advisory boards of both the German finance and economics ministries. It proposes a new supranational trade body in which the EU and Britain both are members with full voting rights. It would cover goods but exclude services, intellectual property, foreign investment, or social areas such as health....
The EU’s trade officials are the shock troops of the European Project. The plan is unlikely to be accepted, but is indicative of the shifting mood in senior policy circles in Germany. There is a growing sense that the EU has been captured by an ideological priesthood. It is failing to adapt to the realities of a complex Europe that is pulling in different directions and must be managed with supple statecraft....
The report has some shrewd observations as to what might actually happen in a no-deal rupture. Britain would not impose a hard border in Ireland. The EU would then be in an awkward predicament. If it compelled Dublin to erect border infrastructure against its will, it would face an Irish nationalist backlash. It would also face demands for financial compensation at a time when it might not be able to count on all of the UK’s £39bn exit fee. Prof Felbermayr said Britain might immediately tear down its global customs barriers and opt for unilateral free trade-at least for a while-leaving European exporters struggling to compete in the UK markets against the cheapest products in the world. If so, the chaos at customs posts would chiefly be on the EU side, at their ports. They would not be ready to handle rules or origin and clearance procedures on such a scale, causing havoc to EU supply chains. Prof Felbermayr said European companies would be up in arms, blame their own governments and pressure the EU to drop the tariffs: “I don’t think anyone in Brussels has really through this through.”...
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