Blogging: What to Expect Here...

Comment of the Day: Graydon: "Anyone who can put off investing is going to do so; there's Brexit, there's 'Ok, yeah, there isn't an adult anywhere in the Trump administration', plus there's the complete lack of statistics. Uncertainty is high and rising. Incompetence has real costs. The US has been using its favoured position as hegemon to disguise the costs of management incompetence since 1970 or so. (You can make arguments for pre-1900, and different values of 'favoured position'.) It's surpassingly unlikely the current US political norms can deliver competent management. (Those norms exist to reward specific forms of bad management.) So the choices (for the US) in a regular time would be between a long slow post-imperial slump, like Spain's, or a major social convulsion to get to some other economic system...

...Only it isn't a regular time; it's a crisis. It's the kind of crisis that doesn't exist in the historical record. (I would like to hope that the accurate analogy isn't going to be "Thirty Years War, but unable to stop".) The young have figured out that if they want to live, the current order has to go. (the young are not wrong.) Throw in that it is not possible for taxes and public spending to go down for the next couple centuries; all the ditches, dikes, dams, catchment basis, drainage allowances, bridge heights, storm sewers, and settling systems are the wrong size, everywhere. The sea is rising. The ocean is dying; so are insects. When that last collection of facts well and truly enters the public consciousness, I would think "recession" is going to be a pretty light description....


#commentoftheday

Comments