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March 2019

Save for white baby-boomers and pre-baby boomers who rode the post-WWII wave of government-sponsored housing finance and inflation on the one hand and union and white-collar defined-benefit pensions on the other, by and large the "middle class" in terms of wealth has always been a multi-generational phenomenon: what with keeping-up-with-the-joneses and the slings-and-arrows-of-fortune, several generations of secure middle-class incomes are required to build up anything that can be called a middle-class wealth stock.

And racial discrimination has made it impossible for African-Americans to have such a run of security:

Darrick Hamilton: Racial Equality Is Economic Equality: "Race is a stronger predictor of wealth than class itself. The 2017 Survey of Consumer Finances indicates that the typical black family has about $17,600 in wealth (inclusive of home equity); in contrast, the typical white family has about $171,000. This amounts to an absolute racial wealth gap where the typical black family owns only ten cents for every dollar owned by the typical white family!...

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Alan Krueger's suicide is horrible and tragic news. All sympathy to his family. He was a light that shone very brightly for good into many dark corners. זיכרונה לברכה: Noah Smith: Alan Krueger Led a Quiet Economics Revolution: "Nor did Krueger restrict himself to the academy... chief economist at the Department of Labor... assistant Treasury secretary... chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers later in the Obama administration.... Krueger’s work defined what a modern economist should look like. He relentlessly focused on issues of practical, immediate importance. He constantly concerned himself with the betterment of the lives of poor and working people, but refused to naively assume that programs designed to help these people always had the intended effect. He was always aware of relevant economic theories, but never let himself be bound by them. This eclectic, humble, humanistic but practical approach has set the tone for an entire generation of young economists. He was taken from us far too soon, but his impact on economics, and on the world, will last for a very long time to come...

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And at this I really am crying. There have been a lot of economists behaving very badly indeed in the twenty-six years since I first went to Washington as an adult to start doing economic policy in a serious way. But the late Alan Krueger always behaved well—in communicating with the public, with his colleagues, and with himself. Arindrajit Dube puts it best:

Arindrajit Dube: "More than any other work,: "More than any other work, Myth and Measurement helped shape my view of building an economics that is open, evidence-driven, and where the core theories can be rejected. Alan Krueger kept reminding us of this, and I won't ever forget it." Alan B. Krueger (May 10, 2018): "Wait. Don’t concede anything. The idea of turning economics into a true empirical science, where core theories can be rejected, is a BIG, revolutionary idea." Arindrajit Dube (May 10, 2018): "In an empirical science based model of economics, there are fewer 'big thinkers' who dream up of big ideas and more 'plumbers'" Doesn't mean vision and synthesis aren't important, but means knowledge & progress are more emergent than in political economy of 19th/20th century...

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The ca.-1870 Disjunction Between Production and Distribution

Il Quarto Stato

In the world as it stood in 1870 there was seen to be a huge disjunction between the growing effective economic power of the human race and the proper distribution of this potential wealth to create a prosperous and happy society. That science, technology, and organization could wreak miracles had become commonplaces. Best friends Karl Marx and Friedrich Engels probably put it best in 1848:

The business class, during… scarce 100 years, has created more massive and more colossal productive forces than have all preceding generations together. Subjection of Nature’s forces to [hu]man[ity], machinery, application of chemistry to industry and agriculture, steam-navigation, railways, electric telegraphs, clearing of whole continents for cultivation, canalisation of rivers, whole populations conjured out of the ground—what earlier century had even a presentiment that such productive forces slumbered in the lap of social labour?…

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Imprisonment by Malthus and "Negative Liberty"

Il Quarto Stato

At the start of the Long 20th Century John Stuart Mill, Britain’s leading economist, leading moral philosopher, and one of its leading imperialists and rulers of the empire as a former India Office bureaucrat, was putting the finishing touches on the final edition of the book that people then looked to to learn economics: Principles of Political Economy, with Some of Their Applications to Moral Philosophy. His book and his thought gave due attention and place to the 1730-1870 era of the British Industrial Revolution. Yet in the year 1870 he looked out on what he saw as a poor and miserable world. “Hitherto”, he wrote, looking at the world and at the Great Britain and Ireland of his day:

it is questionable if all the mechanical inventions yet made have lightened the day’s toil of any human being. They have enabled a greater population to live the same life of drudgery and imprisonment, and an increased number of manufacturers and others to make fortunes. They have increased the comforts of the middle classes...

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Outtake from Slouching Towards Utopia: An Economic History of the Long Twentieth Century: The Dire Absolute Poverty of the Globe in 1870 https://www.icloud.com/pages/0-ZwSIf-ES3dfIBtF_dW_DBmQ: You need to understand three things to grasp the state of the world economy in 1870: that the drive to make love is one of the very strongest of all human drives, that living standards were what we would regard as very low for the bulk of humanity in the long trek between the invention of agriculture and 1870, and that the rate of technological progress back before 1870 was glacial, at best...

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For all the Trumpists, language and argument is not an attempt to understand the world and persuade others but rather an attempt to destroy understandings of what is and to dominate others: Gabriel Schoenfeld: Trump Supporters Say the Darndest Things: "Readers may not be aware but before Roger Kimball became a fanatical acolyte of Donald Trump, he was a fanatical hater... bitterly complaining of the rallies where Trump 'encouraged a whipped up crowd to extend their right arms in Nazi-like salute while pledging allegiance to the Great Leader'.” Many more such depictions of our 45th president as an aspiring führer can be found in the prolific output of this eminent conservative intellectual.... To judge by his response to my review of Hanson’s book, Kimball seems to have forgotten that he specialized in such Nazi references... right up until the moment he abruptly switched from worrying about the impending Trump Third Reich to hailing Trump for his 'salubrious and morally uplifting' presidency. I don’t believe it is an ad hominem argument to raise questions about the quality of a mind that would produce such extraordinary gyrations...

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One of my hobbyhorses: a "semi-skilled" worker is an unskilled worker with a union: Kate Bahn sends us to: Byron Auguste: Low Wage, Not Low Skill: Why Devaluing Our Workers Matters: "Such jobs require optimizing time tradeoffs, quality control, emotional intelligence and project management. They are not low skill, but they are low wage. Why does this matter? When we stereotype or lazily assume low-wage workers to be  “low skill,” it reinforces an often unspoken and pernicious view that they lack intelligence and ambition, maybe even the potential to master “higher-order” skilled work. In an economy that is supposed to operate as a meritocracy—but rarely does—too often, we see low wages and assume both the work and workers are low-value...

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South australia sea shanty Google Search

Note to Self: South Australia:

In South Australia I was born.
Heave away! Haul away!
In South Australia, 'round Cape Horn.
We’re bound for South Australia.

Heave away, heave away
Oh heave away, you rolling king,
We're bound for South Australia.

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The Lighting Budget of Thomas Jefferson: DeLong's Morning Coffee

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Morning Coffee Podcast: The Lighting Budget of Thomas Jefferson: Should the U.S. fall into recession soon, the Federal Reserve will have very little room to loosen policy to cushion the downturn. This is a large asymmetric risk. The right way to manage an asymmetric risk is to buy insurance: the Federal Reserve should be buying recession insurance. It is not. This is a substantial problem...

8:02: https://delong.micro.blog/2019/03/17/the-lighting-budget.html | https://delong.micro.blog/uploads/2019/708e9b89bf.mp3

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Mark Bauerlein (2006): On Michael Bérubé: Weekend Reading

Clowns (ICP)

I wonder if Mark Bauerlein has become a Trumpist? Yes indeedee, he has—not anti-anti-Trump, but the Full Monty: "President Trump is the only one who can stop the left now": Mark Bauerlein (2006): On Michael Bérubé: "An assigned essay topic that was claimed by a conservative student to be anti-American, a claim rightly judged by Bérubé a silly exaggeration. Still, the tendentiousness of the question is plain. Here is the final sentence: 'Analyze the U.S. constitution (original document), and show how its formulation excluded [the] majority of the people living in America at that time, and how it was dominated by America’s elite interest'...

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Weekend Reading: William Freehling: Secessionists at Bay

Weekend Reading: William Freehling: Secessionists at Bay pp. 128-9: "One episode at Monticello illustrates the master's [Jefferson's] genius at evasion. Sally Hemings, Monticello's most celebrated slave, put Jefferson to the test as few trustees have been tested. No trustee more successfully evaded his examination. Most historians, emulating Jefferson's contemporaries, have narrowed the Sally Hemings issue to one question: Did Jefferson sire her five mulatto children? The circumstantial evidence does not serve Jefferson well. Hemings, whitish daughter of Jefferson's father-in-law, was long a household servant within the Big House. Jefferson was always in residence nine months before she gave birth. Jefferson manumitted some of her children and freed no black without a Hemings connection...

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Weekend Reading: Garry Wills (1974): Uncle Thomas’s Cabin

Weekend Reading: Garry Wills (1974): Uncle Thomas’s Cabin: "It should be clear, by now, what fuels the tremendous industry [Fawn Brodie] poured into her work—her obsession with all the things she can find or invent about Jefferson’s sex life. Since that life does not seem a very extensive or active one, Ms. Brodie has to use whatever hints she can contrive. In particular, she reads practically the whole Jeffersonian corpus as a secret code referring to what is presented as the longest, most stable, most satisfying love in Jefferson’s life—that with Sally Hemings...

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Fairly Recently: Must- and Should-Reads, and Writings... (March 17, 2019)

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  1. Jason Furman: Review of Kim Clausing: "Open: The Progressive Case for Free Trade, Immigration, and Global Capital": "If I had to assign policymakers one up-to-date guide to the latest economic policy issues on taxes and trade it would be this one...

  2. Facundo Alvaredo, Lucas Chancel, Thomas Piketty, Emmanuel Saez, and Gabriel Zucman: World Inequality Report 2018: "The World Inequality Lab seeks to fill a democratic gap...

  3. This Federal Reserve interest-raising cycle: not just an ex-post but an ex-ante mistake: Adam Ozimek and Michael Ferlez: The Fed’s Mistake: "The Fed made a numerically significant error in underestimating the amount of labor market slack...

  4. Wikipedia: Philip Auerswald

  5. Langston Hughes: Let America Be America Again

  6. Wikipedia: Metric

  7. Dmitry Grozoubinski: Dmitry's Guide To Writing A No-Deal Is Project Fear Article: "Are you a Tory Lord who once had to share a cab with a Hungarian? An Oxbridge chancer who wants to be on telly? Just write an article about No-Deal being 'Project Fear.' How? This guide can help!...

  8. Dan O'Sullivan: Pigs (A Million Different Ones): "The internet is now the world’s largest subduction zone, where an endless column of young, mostly white males are overtaken and crushed by the unstoppable force of far-right extremism. Violent misogyny, Islamophobia, anti-Semitism, gay-bashing, anti-black racism-you name it, you can find it, in ever more plentiful amounts online. The biggest tech platforms you can name-Facebook, Google, YouTube, Twitter, Reddit-serve up this kind of poison on an industrial scale, mushrooming and expanding at a rate that makes catching up with the spread almost impossible. The early neo-Nazi webforum Stormfront is on life support, largely because there is no need for the far-right to stay in an online cul-de-sac.... We as a society are going to be living with the effects of this radicalization for the rest of our lives...

  9. Maria Lawton: Bacalhau à Gomes Sà

  10. Dan Murphy: The Entire Economy is Fyre Festival.: "Izabella Kaminska: 'Search LinkedIn.... 41 results for 'chief future officer', 44 for 'chief joy officer', 52 for 'chief happiness officer', 63 for 'chief thinking officer', 170 for a 'chief vision officer', 197 futurists and 354 futurologists...' [155 Retweets, 363 Links] Does this many likes and retweets make me an influencer, an evangelist, or a thought leader?...

  11. Karl Rodbertus (1850): Overproduction and Crises

  12. The Points Guy: JetBlue Mint From New York to San Francisco

  13. Impossible Burger

  14. Wikipedia: Jack o' Kent

Continue reading "Fairly Recently: Must- and Should-Reads, and Writings... (March 17, 2019)" »


To stop the New Zealand gunman Abdul Aziz needed a weapon He picked up the first thing he found Los Angeles Times

Comment of the Day: DilbertDogbert: Anyone Can Wear the Mask. You Can Wear the Maskk: "The good prof has an 'I'm with her' image. I propose he have an 'I'm with him' image of this man: https://www.latimes.com/world/la-fg-new-zealand-hero-20190317-story.html. Funny how white nationalists are hero's in their own minds when armed but are sheep when confronted without one.

AP: To stop the New Zealand gunman, Abdul Aziz needed a weapon. He picked up the first thing he found: "'"I realized this is something else. This is a killer', he said.... Aziz said as he ran outside screaming, he was hoping to distract the attacker. He said the gunman ran back to his car to get another gun, and Aziz hurled the credit card machine at him.... Aziz spotted a gun the gunman had abandoned and picked it up, pointed it and squeezed the trigger. It was empty.... 'He gets into his car and I just got the gun and threw it on his window like an arrow and blasted his window', he said. The windshield shattered: 'That's why he got scared'...

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Comment of the Day: Graydon: What a Politics Based on Lies Looks Like: "Y'all are making something simple complicated. There's a Murdoch quote out there about why Murdoch supported leave; when he goes to Number 10, they do what he says. When he goes to Brussels, they don't know or care who he is. Basic primate status is defined by who can tell you what to do. The British upper class are raised in environments which make this really, really obvious, and also which make norm violation especially intolerable. (Yes, this is an imperial hangover.)... The driver is to make damn sure no one can tell them what to do. The Tory support for the whole thing derives from norm-violation; the norms of their childhood have changed, and they're having a coping failure. It's all aligned, from the money on down. People like predictable, and this particular predictable is Those People Can't Tell ME What To Do. Laws, the economy, good sense, or the basic tenet of civilization—indirect benefit beats direct gain from exercising power—all have nothing to do with it. It's impossible to tolerate existing in some other hierarchy...

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Amy Davidson Sorkin: The Magical Thinking Around Brexit: "Scornful shorthand for all that the Brexiteers promised voters in the June, 2016, referendum and cannot, now or ever, deliver. An E.U. official, referring to what he saw as the U.K.’s irrational negotiation schemes, told the Financial Times that 'the unicorn industry has been very busy'.... 'A lot of the people who advocated Brexit have been chasing unicorns now for a very long time', Leo Varadkar, the Prime Minister of Ireland, said last week in Washington, D.C., where he attended St. Patrick’s Day celebrations. His visit coincided with a series of votes in Parliament that were meant to clarify the plans for Brexit but which did nothing of the kind. Instead, the next two weeks will test how deeply a nation can immerse itself in self-delusion...

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Dominic Gates: Flawed Analysis, Failed Oversight: How Boeing and FAA Certified the Suspect 737 Max Flight Control System: "Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) managers pushed the agency’s safety engineers to delegate safety assessments to Boeing itself, and to speedily approve the resulting analysis.... The safety analysis: Understated the power of the new flight control system, which was designed to swivel the horizontal tail to push the nose of the plane down to avert a stall. When the planes later entered service, MCAS was capable of moving the tail more than four times farther than was stated in the initial safety analysis document. Failed to account for how the system could reset itself each time a pilot responded, thereby missing the potential impact of the system repeatedly pushing the airplane’s nose downward. Assessed a failure of the system as one level below 'catastrophic'. But even that 'hazardous' danger level should have precluded activation of the system based on input from a single sensor—and yet that’s how it was designed.... Both Boeing and the FAA were informed of the specifics of this story and were asked for responses 11 days ago, before the second crash of a 737 MAX last Sunday.... Citing a busy week, a spokesman said the agency was 'unable to delve into any detailed inquiries'.... Boeing... is 'unable to comment... because of the ongoing investigation' into the crashes, Boeing did not respond directly to the detailed description of the flaws in MCAS certification, beyond saying that there are some significant mischaracterizations'...

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Via Bob Reich: Harry S Truman (1952): Batavia, New York: Rear Platform: "Senator Taft... explained that the great issue in this campaign is 'creeping socialism'. Now that is the patented trademark of the special interest lobbies. Socialism is a scare word they have hurled at every advance the people have made in the last 20 years. Socialism is what they called public power. Socialism is what they called Social Security. Socialism is what they called farm price supports. Socialism is what they called bank deposit insurance. Socialism is what they called the growth of free and independent labor organizations. Socialism is their name for almost anything that helps all the people...

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Joseph A. Schumpeter (1947): History of Economic Analysis: "Analytic effort is of necessity preceded by a pre-analytic cognitive act that supplies the raw material for the analytic effort. In this book, this pre-analytic cognitive act will be called Vision... Factual work and ‘theoretical’ work... will eventually produce scientific models.. to which increasingly more rigorous standards of consistency and adequacy will be applied. This is indeed a primitive but not, I think, misleading statement of the process by which we grind out what we call scientific propositions...


#noted

J. M. Keynes (1937): The General Theory of Employment: "I am more attached to the comparatively simple fundamental ideas with underlying my theory than to the particular form in which I have embodied them, and I have no desire that the latter should be crystallized at the present state of the debate. It’s a simple basic ideas can become familiar and acceptable, time and experience and the collaboration of a number of minds will discover the best way of expressing them...

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The Fed Needs to Be Buying Recession Insurance—But Is Not: DeLong's Morning Coffee

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Morning Coffee Podcast: The Fed Needs to Be Buying Recession Insurance—But Is Not: Should the U.S. fall into recession soon, the Federal Reserve will have very little room to loosen policy to cushion the downturn. This is a large asymmetric risk. The right way to manage an asymmetric risk is to buy insurance: the Federal Reserve should be buying recession insurance. It is not. This is a substantial problem...

7:15: https://delong.micro.blog/uploads/2019/9ae742f670.mp3 | https://delong.micro.blog/2019/03/16/the-fed-needs.html

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The Fed Should Buy Recession Insurance: Fresh at Project Syndicate

Hundred Dollar Bill Peel and Stick Jumbo Size Removable Wall Decal 100 Dollar Bill Google Express

Fresh at Project Syndicate: The Fed Should Buy Recession Insurance: If the United States falls into recession in the next year or two, the US Federal Reserve may have very little room to loosen policy, yet it is not taking any steps to cover that risk. Unless the Fed rectifies this soon, the US–and the world–may well face much bigger problems later. The next global downturn may still be a little way off. The chances that the North Atlantic as a whole will be in recession a year from now have fallen to about one in four. German growth may well be positive this quarter, while China could rebound, too. And although US growth is definitely slowing–to 1% or so this quarter–this may yet turn out to be a blip. Let’s hope so. Because if the next downturn is looming, North Atlantic central banks do not have the policy room to fight it effectively... Read MOAR at Project Syndicate

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REMIND YOURSELF: We Are with Her!

WE ARE WITH HER!!

Looking Forward to Years During Which Most if Not All of America's Potential for Human Progress Is Likely to Be Wasted:

  • With each passing day Donald Trump looks more and more like Silvio Berlusconi
  • Bunga-bunga governance
  • With a number of unlikely and unforeseen disasters
  • And a major drag on the country
    • Except in states where his policies are neutralized.

Nevertheless, remember: WE ARE WITH HER!

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Edward Luce: Why America Cannot Fly Alone: "Trump’s Boeing reversal is a teachable moment for the America First president.... No black box is needed to discover why. The biggest factor is falling global trust in US institutional probity. Mr Trump’s budget this week proposed a cut to the FAA in spite of the fact that its air traffic control system remains years behind many of its counterparts. Moreover, the FAA lacks a chief. Mr Trump nominated his own pilot, John Dunkin—the man who flew Trump planes, not Air Force One—to head it. When the Senate laughed him off as unqualified to lead an 18bn agency, Mr Trump failed to come up with a new name. The FAA has been flying without a pilot, so to speak, for more than a year. Little surprise America’s partners have lost trust in its direction. Much the same could be said of US diplomacy...

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Ed Luce: Dublin’s Irish-American Trump Card: "Richie Neal... Massachusetts’ congressman... ally of Sinn Féin... could block any trade deal Trump plans to negotiate with Britain. Indeed, he has vowed to do so if Britain jeopardises the open border between the republic and Northern Ireland.... A hard deal Brexit would trigger an equally hard Irish-American roadblock. Why jeopardise peace in Ireland (and therefore Britain) in quest of a US trade deal that’ll hit instant roadblocks in DC?... From what I can tell, the Brexiters have done precious little homework on any aspect of a no-deal Brexit. Let me save them some time on the American end: no US-UK trade deal can emerge from the ashes of the Good Friday Agreement. There. I’ve got it off my chest...

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Framing the Industrial Revolution

https://www.icloud.com/keynote/0-3JUJaZHlPgS6_6W91jmkw8Q


#berkeley #teachingeconomics #teachinggrowth #teachinghistory #highlighted
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Frances Coppola: Tether's U.S. Dollar Peg Is No Longer Credible: "Tether does not have 100% traditional currency backing for its reserves. It has 'cash equivalents'... has become an unregulated fractional reserve bank. It’s a very risky fractional reserve bank, too. Loans that you can’t sell, can’t pledge for cash, and may or may not be able to call are not by any stretch of the imagination 'reserves'.... Tether may regard one USDT as the same as one U.S. dollar, but without either the reserves or the central bank backing to guarantee this, its words are empty. The Fed isn’t going to step in and bail it out. Remarkably, though, crypto markets still believe Tether’s guarantee...

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I must confess that my knee-jerk reaction given my socialization into the neoliberal cult when young to paid leave programs is to worry that loading responsibility for providing social insurance onto employers is a hazardous activity—it is not the 1920s, and we are not the tarry-eyed Edward Filene certain that paternalistic companies engaged in welfare capitalism can do more to enhance societal well-being than the ardent socialists and social democrats. But evidence is piling up from the laboratories of social insurance that are the states that my knee-jerk reaction is wrong: Heather Boushey: Increasing Evidence of the Benefits of Paid Leave Means Congress Needs to Consider a Federal Program like the FAMILY Act: "The existing state programs—the oldest, in California, dates back to 2004—have provided a laboratory for researchers to study labor and health outcomes for individuals, performance and productivity outcomes for firms, and broader macroeconomic outcomes of paid family and medical leave. This work builds on a considerable body of research from long-established programs in some European countries. The answers to many questions are already coming into focus...

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John Ostrower: The World Pulls the Andon Cord on the 737 Max: "Lion Air 610 should never have been allowed to get airborne on October 29.... The plane simply was not airworthy.... PK-LQP's Angle-of-Attack sensors were disagreeing by 20-degrees as the plane taxied for takeoff. A warning light that would have alerted the crew to the disagreement wasn't part of the added-cost optional package.... A guardrail wasn't in place.... Erroneous Angle-of-Attack data collided with an apparently unprepared crew with tragic consequences as the MCAS system repeatedly activated, driving the jet's nose into a fatal dive...

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Fairly Recently: Must- and Should-Reads, and Writings... (March 13, 2019)

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  1. Marne Levine: How Did I Get Here?

  2. Sean Illing: "Fascism: a Warning" from Madeleine Albright

  3. Neil Cummins: The Missing English Middle Class: Evidence From 60 Million Death And Probate Records: "Despite the great equalisation of wealth over the 20th century, most English have no significant wealth at death...

  4. David H. Autor: Work of the Past, Work of the Future: "A disproportionate polarization... shunting non-college workers out of specialized middle-skill occupations into low-wage occupations... diminishing the set of non-college workers that hold middle-skill jobs in high-wage cities... attenuating... the steep urban wage premium for non-college workers...

  5. Paul Krugman (2015): On Econoheroes: "Look at hits on Google News. If you put in “mankiw economy” you get about 5200 hits, many of them involving debates at the recent economics meetings. If you put in “stephen moore economy” you get 65,700 hits. If you put in “stiglitz economy” you get 43,800. I see this as a real asymmetry...

  6. Sanjiv Das, Kris Mitchener, and Angela Vossmeyer: Bank Networks and Systemic Risk in the Great Depression: "The Global Crisis brought attention to how connections among financial institutions may make systems more prone to crises. Turning to a major financial crisis from the past, this column uses data from the Great Depression to study risk in the commercial banking network leading up to the crisis and how the network structure influenced the outcomes. It demonstrates that when the distribution of risk is more concentrated at the top of the system, as it was in 1929, fragility and the propensity for risk to spread increases...

  7. Alicia Sasser Modestino: Is the "Skills Gap" ReaL?: "Since the Great Recession, employers have cited a skills gap in which workers lack the education and experience needed to fill vacant jobs. While job requirements increased for many openings during the recession, the inverse has happened as the labor market has recovered...

  8. Lee Harris: Murderbot Will Return in… "Network Effect". A Full Novel by Martha Wells

  9. Matthew Yglesias: Great Tariff Debate of 1888: Trump’s Love of the McKinley Tariff: "Trump’s side won, and it was an unpopular disaster...

  10. Karl Smith: [Why Centrists Have to Become More Partisan(https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-03-11/why-centrists-have-to-become-more-partisan): "In America’s polarized political climate, credibility within the party is a prerequisite for getting anything done...

  11. James Fallows: ET302: Is the Boeing 737 Max 8 to Blame?: "No one knows for sure—but here is where experts will be looking for clues...

  12. Herman Melville: Moby-Dick: "Ahab: 'Aye, aye! and I’ll chase him round Good Hope, and round the Horn, and round the Norway Maelstrom, and round perdition’s flames before I give him up. And this is what ye have shipped for, men! to chase that white whale on both sides of land, and over all sides of earth, till he spouts black blood and rolls fin out. What say ye, men, will ye splice hands on it, now? I think ye do look brave'...

  13. Ernst Renan: What Is a Nation?: "The essence of a nation is that all of its individual members have a great deal in common and also that they have forgotten many things. No French citizen knows whether he is a Burgund, an Alain, a Taifala, or a Visigoth. Every French citizen has forgotten St. Bartholomew’s Day and the thirteenth-century massacres in the Midi...

  14. Wikipedia: Cauchy Distribution

  15. Anna Mikusheva: Weak Instrumental Variables

  16. Max Roser and Esteban Ortiz-Ospina: Global Extreme Poverty

  17. Isaiah Andrews and James H. Stock: Weak Instruments and What to Do About Them

  18. Philip Auerswald: The Code Economy: A 40000-Year History

  19. Absolute lunacy from a politician who is the essence of a twit: Nigel Farage: The Betrayal of Brexit Is One of the Most Shameful Chapters in Our Country’s History: "498 MPs voted to trigger Article 50.... They all knew that the consequence was that the UK would leave the EU on March 29 2019, with or without a deal. And yet now they have decided to claim the vote was meaningless.... We are living through one of the most shameful chapters in our country’s history...

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And here is the launch explanation of the analytical perspective that the brand-new group Economists for Inclusive Prosperity hopes to take. It is good. Perhaps we at Equitable Growth should steal it?: Suresh Naidu, Dani Rodrik, and Gabriel Zucman: Economics After Neoliberalism: "Economists of the real world... understand that we live in a second-best world rife with market imperfections and in which power matters enormously.... The competitive model is rarely the right benchmark.... This requires an empirical orientation, an experimental mind set, and a good dose of humility to recognize the limits of our knowledge.... Throughout [our] proposals is the sense that economies are operating well inside the justice-efficiency frontier, and that there are numerous policy 'free-lunches' that could push us towards an economy that is morally better without sacrificing (and indeed possibly enhancing) prosperity...

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The ERM system of a generation ago was in one important respect vastly superior to the Euro mechanism. THE ERM system had a fiscal backstop that the Euro mechanism lacked, and Europe today is much the poorer for it: Giancarlo Corsetti, Barry Eichengreen, and Galina Hale: The Euro Crisis in the Mirror of the EMS: How Tying Odysseus to the Mast Avoided the Sirens but Led Him to Charybdis: "What explains the longer and deeper downturn after 2009?.... Six lessons of the ERM-euro crisis comparison...

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Modern Economic Growth Memo Question

Economics tends to view growth as a continuous and diffuse process: if one firm does not solve the problem of how to efficiently utilize resources, others will and drive the first out of business; if one technological vein plays itself out, energy will focus on others. These readings all argue different. They argue one side of a debate. They argue either that some unique and particular institutions and technologies matter a lot. What kinds of evidence not presented in these readings might lead you to come down on one or the other of the many, many sides in this debate—either on the side of economists' standard prior, or that in fact it is still other and still different institutions or technologies or simply the aggregate state of the economy that matters the most?

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Modern Economic Growth: Eagle's-Eye View Slides

https://www.icloud.com/keynote/0uV-761YfOFH171v7LfWSara


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