Nice to see that the very sharp Jared Bernstein of CBPP is recovering from his health misadventure, and is already saying very smart things again: Jared Bernstein: Ch-ch-ch-changes!: "GS fiscal analyst Alec Phillips... worth a close look.... One of the more important policy-driven determinants of near-term US growth is under debate right now: setting discretionary spending levels for 2020/21.... Even were Congress to agree to keep the levels of discretionary spending stable over the next few years, the impact will be a fading of fiscal stimulus on real GDP growth... When it comes to fiscal impulse, it’s not the level that matters. It’s the change. The last deal–the one that determined spending in 2018/19–went both well above the caps but, more important from an impulse perspective, went well above prior agreements.... That’s one reason to expect 2020 growth to be closer to 2 percent than 3 percent...

Ch ch ch changes Both personal and fiscal impulse Jared Bernstein On the Economy