May 3, 2019: Weekly Forecasting Update: Little Change

Sam Bell recalls this from two years ago. The Bernanke and the Yellen Feds are, I think, going to be judged as harshly as the Burns Fed of the 1970s for assuming that they knew the state and structure of the economy. The more tentative, more willing to gather information Greenspan Fed of the 1990s looks much much better in retrospect: Sam Fleming: Is It Finally Time For a Pay Rise for American Workers?: "John Williams... San Francisco Fed president, says that while inflation may have been weak recently, this should not detract from the bigger picture. “It’s not like inflation is moving in the wrong direction or is out of sync with what you’d expect for where the economy is,” he said last month. 'We have gotten rid of all the slack'...